ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[HURAKAN]

People still asleep will have a surprise when they wake up!! lol

[Vortmax1]

Yes Hurakan...that's very obvious. I'm interested to see if the TUTT keeps diving SW what the shear factor will be today.

[ronjon]

Hurakan, can you post one of those nice maps of the Bahama Islands so I can reference the storm center? Looks like its maybe a TD now or borderline low TS. Is the center under the heaviest convection blowing up now? With the shear and dry air, It'll probably stay a sheared moderate tropical storm although the heaviest weather is concentrated on the north side. SE FL is in for some squally weather starting tonight.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[sunnyday]

Any chance it could move back north?

[Recurve]

Back to 70? Holy Crap

I did not expect this exactly. Last night we were seeing some great convection, but the west side seemed really shear impacted. Then it looked like what we said wasn't happening is happening -- some consolidation of a low under the burst of convection. This might be an interesting case study of an ULL and development nearby. When the satellite showed two large circular convective bursts I thought, I've seen that before...

I know I shouldn't be pleading here but..... please keep moving and get to Florida without intensifying too much.

At least the outlook still just says showers and gusty winds will spread our way.

[Ground_Zero_92]

The LLC is definatelty visable on the visable sat loop. 97L has been quite a trooper.

[rockyman]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Here's my 12z "risk map". I've whittled away the risk for most of the east and west coasts of Florida and the Florida Panhandle. I'm not quite ready to move the risk area any farther west, based on this morning's intensification trend. The area of highest risk on my map continues to be the central Louisiana coast.

[cycloneye]

Interesting this part of the 8 AM TWO. They may not wait for recon.

A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL
STORM COULD FORM AT ANY TIME TODAY...

[KWT]

Hurakan, can you post one of those nice maps of the Bahama Islands so I can reference the storm center? Looks like its maybe a TD now or borderline low TS. Is the center under the heaviest convection blowing up now? With the shear and dry air, It'll probably stay a sheared moderate tropical storm although the heaviest weather is concentrated on the north side. SE FL is in for some squally weather starting tonight.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Agreed despite earlier misgivins about this system the early morning Vis.imagery sure does suggest we have a TD present, its just the uncertainty of how strong those west winds are thats probably holding the NHC back right now.

[blp]

You could tell that this was coming last night. You could just see that ULL getting out of the way quickly and the convection bursting.

[b]

SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A INCREASE SINCE YESTERDAY IN
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE. THE AREA OF LOWEST PRESSURE IS CENTERED BETWEEN THE
ISLANDS OF ACKLINS AND GREAT INAGUA...AND MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL
STORM COULD FORM AT ANY TIME TODAY...AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD OVER THE
BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[gatorcane]

Back to 70? Holy Crap

I did not expect this exactly. Last night we were seeing some great convection, but the west side seemed really shear impacted. Then it looked like what we said wasn't happening is happening -- some consolidation of a low under the burst of convection. This might be an interesting case study of an ULL and development nearby. When the satellite showed two large circular convective bursts I thought, I've seen that before...

I know I shouldn't be pleading here but..... please keep moving and get to Florida without intensifying too much.

At least the outlook still just says showers and gusty winds will spread our way.

Not surprising really. Today has been the day we expected development all along. I'm really curious what happens once the ULL is far enough SW to bring a SE upper-level windflow to 97L. You can already see the clouds starting to build more to the west in the NW side of 97L. Should be some pretty good conditions for development but not good enough for any kind of significant system into the South FL or FL Keys, I don't believe at this point. Also as the ULL produces southerly shear, will be interesting if we have some LLC relocations farther N into the deeper convection as is typical of a developing system near a ULL.

[americanre1]

And what is going to happen with this SE shear, will it actually help Bonnie form and get in better shape.

[HURAKAN]

AL, 97, 2010072212, , BEST, 0, 216N, 744W, 30, 1008, TD

TD #3

[tailgater]

I would be a little surprised if we don't get a TCFA later this morning if conditions continue to improve, I doubt the NHC would wait too long, considering the strong pressure gradient.
Hope the pro,s chime in soon with the data that is available to them.

NEVER MIND

[blp]

People still asleep will have a surprise when they wake up!! lol

I went to bed around 4am so no surprise for me, it started looking good late last night.

[thetruesms]

Interesting this part of the 8 AM TWO. They may not wait for recon.

A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL
STORM COULD FORM AT ANY TIME TODAY...

It's probably text that's part of a template, as it shows up nearly every time a system is on the verge of getting an upgrade. And while I expect them to wait for recon, you're right in that it does leave them an open option to start issuing advisories whenever they desire.

edit - and if they don't edit that position on Hurakan, my expectation will be wrong

[cycloneye]

Interesting this part of the 8 AM TWO. They may not wait for recon.

A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL
STORM COULD FORM AT ANY TIME TODAY...

It's probably text that's part of a template, as it shows up nearly every time a system is on the verge of getting an upgrade. And while I expect them to wait for recon, you're right in that it does leave them an open option to start issuing advisories whenever they desire.

Well,there you have it with the TD designation on best track.

[cwachal]

where do you get that???

[americanre1]

So we should be getting TS warnings and watches posted at anytime.

[TheBurn]

AL, 97, 2010072212, , BEST, 0, 216N, 744W, 30, 1008, TD
TD #3

Wow... so this is "official"?