ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[HURAKAN]

Link to best track - ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[KWT]

AL, 97, 2010072212, , BEST, 0, 216N, 744W, 30, 1008, TD

TD #3

Looks like they've decided the Sat.imagery is enough to upgrade, to be honest after looking at the loops I tend to agree with them.

[rockyman]

I'm assuming we'll have to wait until 10am to get our first "official track", even if they upgrade now.

[cycloneye]

No renumber yet at best track but that will come in minutes.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[Recurve]

I calculate speed over last 12 hours -- very rough because there was no center -- at 7.5 knots

90 miles change over 12 hours -- from 21.4/72.8 to 21.6/74.4

At that rate, 392 miles to Upper Keys, center arrival at noon Saturday -- if it tracks northwest.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[rockyman]

Easy to spot the center (sheared):

[HURAKAN]

I'm assuming we'll have to wait until 10am to get our first "official track", even if they upgrade now.

It's an internal upgrade, officially, it will be at 11 am

[americanre1]

So should we be expecting a special TWO at any time or they would wait for at least until 9am eastern.

[Hurricane Andrew]

WOW The one day my mom forgets to give me my power cord, so i only hav 4 hours of computer, it forums. Ironic, huh?

[hiflyer]

First off Avila came in and bumped it right back up to 70%...he is the conservative one right? Looks like Georgetown (MYEG) may be the first good weather reporting station on the path after the Turks. Using http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ to get an idea of which island is what...also shows sea floor which indicates a shelving to quite shallower and most likely warmer water is coming soon. Cannot get Bahamas radar to open up and loop dang it. Grand Piedra radar out of Cuba has got a rough image at long range.

[Vortmax1]

Excellent! I'm glad to see them jump right in on this upgrade early today.
They have a lot of work to do to get everything coordinated.
Can't wait for RECON this afternoon.

[x-y-no]

So we should be getting TS warnings and watches posted at anytime.

I expect that'll happen at 11am. I doubt we get a special advisory unless it ramps up real fast this morning into an obvious TS - most likely TD at 11, TS if and when recon confirms it.

[HURAKAN]

Looking at the latest visible images, it seems that we have Bonnie in our hands. RECON will tell us the truth!!

[thetruesms]

I'm assuming we'll have to wait until 10am to get our first "official track", even if they upgrade now.

It's an internal upgrade, officially, it will be at 11 am

This. They may be toying with the idea of a special advisory due to proximity, but it's not like a hurricane has popped out of nowhere. My expectation is that it will be official in a few hours. We'll ignore the fact that I'm already 0/1 on expectations this morning

[x-y-no]

First off Avila came in and bumped it right back up to 70%...he is the conservative one right?

He has that reputation.

I'll say I've got huge respect for Avila as a forecaster. His writing can be a bit terse and dry, though.

[tolakram]

Vis Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Looking at the low level flow we have a completely different environment from last night. No more screaming easterlies in the islands. What a difference a day makes.

WV Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Loop, Zoom=2: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

And, in my opinion, that circulation does not look weak this morning.

[ronjon]

Here's a link to the Bahamas Island map.

http://www.worldatlas.com/webimage/countrys/namerica/caribb/lgcolor/bscolor.htm

[tailgater]

First off Avila came in and bumped it right back up to 70%...he is the conservative one right? Looks like Georgetown (MYEG) may be the first good weather reporting station on the path after the Turks. Using http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ to get an idea of which island is what...also shows sea floor which indicates a shelving to quite shallower and most likely warmer water is coming soon. Cannot get Bahamas radar to open up and loop dang it. Grand Piedra radar out of Cuba has got a rough image at long range.

First thing I thought of when reading the TWO.

[jhpigott]

It looks like NHC is going with TD #3 at 11:00am. Any guesses how far north they may post tropical storm watches/warnings along the east coast of Florida. Key Largo? Miami? Ft. Lauderdale? Jupiter Inlet? I forget all the break points. My guess is somewhere by the Broward/PBC line.

[cwachal]

now we just have to have convection wrap around that center all the way and we will have TS here... winds will likely shoot up to 50 mph by tomorrow morning imho