ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Hey Huc hope that all is ok at Basse-Terre. What are your latest observations? Thanks.
Gustywind

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[BigA]

Given what this system hasn't done in the past, I'll take the words of those who say that conditions are unfavorable, but I have to admit that I don't really understand it. There is a developing upper level anticyclone almost directly over Gaston, and the air ahead of is is significantly better than the desert air behind it. What is holding this back? Generally low levels of instability?

[Sanibel]

Still maintaining a weak burst, but the islands should wreck it finally.


Negative conditions settled back in to the Atlantic after Earl.


Edit: Still has a chance of tracking south of the islands. Best red IR dot yet this morning.

[Aric Dunn]

Today maybe the day to see a come back. it took a day longer than i thought since the upper trough moved farther west that expected. but gaston has reached an area of greater upper divergence and slightly more moist low level environment ( still some dry air to its east in mid and upper levels but that should be less of an issue now). there is still west winds out there although there is a closed LLC it is weak at the surface which is a inhibiting factor but if convection fires today like I think it will then it would not take long to get a more defined circ. Like always we just have to keep watching it.

[HUC]

Hello Gusty,overcast,some cb clouds, thunder,little rain..Ths wind shift from SO in the early morning, to SSEst since 730am, very light. That's ,despite very tiny activity , the mark of some weak circulation passing just to the north of my station( 16.8N and 32.4 at 8am as describe in the TWOutlook.)
So the remnants of Gaston are still her,and there is a good convection in the south side of this low right now..It's not dead!!!

[ColinDelia]

I'm really wondering too, BigA.

Warm SST'S, high ocean heat content and low shear are quite positive factors; enough to make the statistical models blow up.
Enough that the NHC called the conditions conducive for development UNTIL recon flew in and discovered something different.
Maybe someone noticed something specific in the data?

The anticyclone center is a fair deal North of Gaston. How far is too far? Maybe subsidence at the edge of the upper level high?
Apparently contradicted by ...

CAPE is as high or higher in the vicinity of Gaston as when Danielle and Earl developed. There seems to be enough instability
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/jan ... lot_41.gif

Doesn't look like too much dry air.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

I can only imagine the satellite estimates of one or more of the above was contradicted by the actual conditions discovered by recon.

Any thoughts appreciated. This is a tough one for my pay rank to figure out

[hurricanehunter69]

Gaston may look sickly right now.....However, lest we forget that Katrina(TD #12) also looked sickly in this general area and dissipated. Then.... Well, we all know what happened in the Gulf Of Mexico.

[Dean4Storms]

Need to keep an eye on this, but nothing for the next several days as far as becoming a TC!!

[Aric Dunn]

Need to keep an eye on this, but nothing for the next several days as far as becoming a TC!!

yeah going to take a couple days before we any major development.. but things should start to change soon.

[gatorcane]

It's dead Jim

[CourierPR]

It's dead Jim

Now if it regenerates are you going to post on how you really thought it would come back all along?

[Nimbus]

What is holding this back? Generally low levels of instability?

Primarily lack of low surface pressure its up around 1011 over a broad area. That and the other things ARIC mentioned.

Might have to wait till Jamaica before it reaches tropical storm strength again, or even further west if it interacts with Hispaniola.

[Gustywind]

Hello Gusty,overcast,some cb clouds, thunder,little rain..Ths wind shift from SO in the early morning, to SSEst since 730am, very light. That's ,despite very tiny activity , the mark of some weak circulation passing just to the north of my station( 16.8N and 32.4 at 8am as describe in the TWOutlook.)
So the remnants of Gaston are still her,and there is a good convection in the south side of this low right now..It's not dead!!!

Thanks HUC glad to see your report so all seems ok good news. Convective activity was briefly strong this morning in my location. Things are ok for now, whereas let's wait and see what could happens with the southern part of these remnants. Some nice bursts can always occur and refire. Let's be on our guard!!!

[KWT]

The problem which has really held it back still remains I see, loads of outflow boundaries coming out of this system which suggests instablity still isn't really high enough at the moment...

Never say never though in September with any system for sure...esp as it'll likely get into either the BoC/W.Gulf at some point which has proved favourable this year.

[5KOVERLIBOR]

Is there anything to be said for the lack of ramp with ex-Gaston and the below-climo norm vertical instabilities in the CAR and the GOM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... carins.png

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... gmxins.png

And those that have returned to the Tropical Atlantic?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... tatins.png

I suspect as a lowly "Tropical Wave" I shouldn't be expectant of anyone replying. So I'll respond to this myself.

No, 5KOVERLIBOR, the lack of anything behaving as the biased posters that flood these boards would hope has little if anything to do with persistently anomalously low vertical instabilities.

Cool...thanks.

[KWT]

I think 5KOVERLIBOR that has alot to do with it, clearly the levels of instablity has been a problem for this system so far as has the dry air that has been present.

[ColinDelia]

Vorticity has increased a good deal this morning.

Went from 1 square degree of 50 units of vorticity to about 4 square degrees.

[emeraldislencguy]

this is the best it has looked in days