ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[Air Force Met]

If they gave it 70% chance 2 days ago and it now is a Tropical Depression... wouldn't that mean they were right? Isn't it 70% chance of development in 48 hours? Just curious.

Yes...but they lowered it to 40%...which in my opinion was a bad call. I would not have lowered it to 40%...especially given how sharp the trof axis was yesterday.

That's sort of like this: If I issued a TAF at 12Z (station forecast) calling for severe thunderstorms at 00Z...then took that out of my forecast at the 20Z update...then at 00Z we got severe thunderstorms...I blew my forecast. It doesn't matter what I WAS forecasting...it matters what I AM forecasting.

If that makes sense.

are we going to get one of your hand drawn maps that I like so much?

Yeah...probably...after I get my morning updates out.

[jlauderdal]

the wobble watching has been replaced by the lemon, orange, code red watching..interesting how the dynamics change year over year

[brunota2003]

I think he might actually go with 55 knots (depending on what track he takes) The SHPS/DSHPS takes it to 52 knots, so 55 - 60 knots between hours is not out of the question.

[expat2carib]

If they gave it 70% chance 2 days ago and it now is a Tropical Depression... wouldn't that mean they were right? Isn't it 70% chance of development in 48 hours? Just curious.

It means they were 30% wrong If it was 100% in 48 hours they were right

[JTE50]

Avila, Avila - no wonder I became angry with him about 25 years ago...

I'm sorry, but the STWO is much more exciting than what the VIS shows, and there's a HUGH ULL over us (South Florida) at this time - not exactly what I'd call a favorable environment, but the STWO is going to drive the media into a frenzy (and the public):

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Frank

It's the right call. There is no doubt this is a TD...and given the winds being reported by ships in the area...recon will probably find a TS.

I see absolutely nothing wrong in what Avila said...and as most know...I'm not a huge fan of his.

I don't see where the STWO hyped anything or said anything that wasn't true. A low has formed and its fairly obvious. Lack of shear is not a pre-req to upgrading a system.

What's a "STWO" ?

[Chacor]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook.

[AdamFirst]

What's a "STWO" ?

Special Tropical Weather Outlook

[Stormcenter]

Classified TS or not it's still a sheared mess.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[fci]

I guess the other golden question is track at this point.
Is Bonnie (or TD #3) going to take the more southern track through the Fl Straits as many have conjected?
How much impact will the storm have on South Florida?
Pretty close to ramp up too much and no one has said anything about RI.
It will be an entertaining day down here as people realize that there is a TD or TS on our doorstep.
Looking forward to our resident experts thoughts today.
Sure do miss Derek Ortt !!

[wzrgirl1]

I would not be surprised to see a strong tropical storm, minimal cat. 1 before it reaches the FL Straits or South Florida mainland. That gives it almost 36 hours and plenty of mileage over warm water which is plenty of time to ramp up. This of course is just an opinion of an amateur poster and nothing more.

[sphelps8681]

Well TD or TS is better than waking up with Cat 1. I believe that was Huberto.

[wzrgirl1]

Oops did not see the new tracks. Looks as if none of the models are pointing to the mainland of South Florida which is good for us, but not good for Gulf of Mexico as there will be no land to interact with the circulation.

[Javlin]

I guess the other golden question is track at this point.
Is Bonnie (or TD #3) going to take the more southern track through the Fl Straits as many have conjected?
How much impact will the storm have on South Florida?
Pretty close to ramp up too much and no one has said anything about RI.
It will be an entertaining day down here as people realize that there is a TD or TS on our doorstep.
Looking forward to our resident experts thoughts today.
Sure do miss Derek Ortt !!

Yea What happened with Derek??

[SouthFloridawx]

[AdamFirst]

Oops did not see the new tracks. Looks as if none of the models are pointing to the mainland of South Florida which is good for us, but not good for Gulf of Mexico as there will be no land to interact with the circulation.

You can throw every single one of those models out.

[JessRomero]

Oops did not see the new tracks. Looks as if none of the models are pointing to the mainland of South Florida which is good for us, but not good for Gulf of Mexico as there will be no land to interact with the circulation.

You can throw every single one of those models out.

Y should we throw them out?

[StormClouds63]

Well TD or TS is better than waking up with Cat 1. I believe that was Huberto.

Humberto caught everyone by surprise (2007). Thankfully, it was so close to the coast it couldn't intensify beyond a Cat1.

[AdamFirst]

Oops did not see the new tracks. Looks as if none of the models are pointing to the mainland of South Florida which is good for us, but not good for Gulf of Mexico as there will be no land to interact with the circulation.

You can throw every single one of those models out.

Y should we throw them out?

The models initialized too far south and west, as well as now we have TD3, which means we will have much better info towards noontime when the 12z models come out.

[Pearl River]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg

It appears the center is trying to cover up.

[gatorcane]

Frank, that ULL is now getting out of the way as forecasted. Bonnie looks to be there or is forming as we speak, headed towards S. FL

Would expect some squally weather for S. Florida tomorrow and Sat, with winds to Tropical Storm force depending on where you are in S. FL, Keys

Thankfully she won't have enough time over water to become a significant threat.