ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[neospaceblue]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 AUG 2010 Time : 211500 UTC
Lat : 25:10:40 N Lon : 56:52:41 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 959.7mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.7 5.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : -0.3mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km

Center Temp : +10.4C Cloud Region Temp : -61.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[cycloneye]

Beautiful sunset.

[Macrocane]

Completely agree, and Danielle must be enjoying the view of the sunset with her eye too

[leanne_uk]

I've just saved this image as my screen saver totally beautiful.

Beautiful sunset.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rgb-l.jpg

[KWT]

Looking mighty impressive, I suspect we see an upgrade to major status next advisory unless it weakens again in the next few hours.

[dixiebreeze]

Looking mighty impressive, I suspect we see an upgrade to major status next advisory unless it weakens again in the next few hours.

26/1745 UTC 24.8N 56.4W T5.0/5.0 DANIELLE -- Atlantic

[cpdaman]

could someone tell me why

with the current steering flow and now that the upper trough is getting out of the way further SW and pushing from a earlier position just WNW of her (which i believe forced her more NW'erly) .....why she wouldn't turn Almost due westerly tonite?

i think right now she could be (in the process) of turning WNW

There is, or will be, strong high pressure over the US east coast right now. What steering flow are you looking at?



This is the steering flow i'm looking at

Will still move NW for another day, then turn.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm4.html

or this

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm3.html

seems like she should slow and move slowly westward based on that for the next 36-48 hours....

[supercane]

Solid eyewall on SSMI:


The east-west orientation makes this look less picturesque than expected for its intensity, at least for me.

[cpdaman]

she looks beautiful......

in bermuda don't let your guard down yet.

tolakram doesn't she looks like she want to make a left hand turn on the next frame or two....lol.....but really looking at the steering flow i posted (i'm trying to learn) why would she not go westward later tonite thru tommorrow (next 24 at least)?

[supercane]

SAB Dvorak classification still T5.0, probably too low:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
26/2345 UTC 25.5N 57.1W T5.0/5.0 DANIELLE
26/1745 UTC 24.8N 56.4W T5.0/5.0 DANIELLE

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 06, 2010082700, , BEST, 0, 255N, 572W, 95, 968, HU

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest


Shy from major, but NHC can decide to bump it just before advisory is out depending on how it looks.

[Buck]

With her winds above those of Alex at his peak, I am reminded at just how super-low his pressure was. She's 21mbs above his peak intensity.

[plasticup]

The eye is shrinking and convection is deepening near the core, but the southeastern quadrant is flagging. It may have intensified a little, but the convective banding has been weak all day and it's only a matter of time before that takes a toll on the core.

[GCANE]

It looks like there is an UL Jet flowing SW to NE across the SE Quad.

That is inhibiting outflow there.

Rest of the UL outflow looks great - a well established poleward outflow channel.

Also looks like dry air has finally shaken out.

One established infeed directly from the ITCZ, another being established into the east Carib, and a third that looks like it could form into the Bahamas.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t72hrs.gif

[HURAKAN]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 959.6mb/102.0kt

agreeable

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like Danielle is a major hurricane.

[MGC]

Danielle looks to be a cat-3 to me......MGC

[CrazyC83]

Hard to say but I would be willing to bump it up to 100 kt.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Impressive hurricane out there tonight....

[gatorcane]

This one is history. Looks like it will be a fish as we expected from the beginning.