ATL: EARL - Models

[ROCK]

96L really gains some lat right around the Leewards...

[Evil Jeremy]

So the trend is much further west before crossing 20N, and coming closer to the Caribbean than before.

[ROCK]

So the trend is much further west before crossing 20N, and coming closer to the Caribbean than before.

yeah a lot farther west than I would have guessed....tomorrows a new day and new runs...no telling what they will show....

[Ivanhater]

HWRF

[KWT]

Should head near WNW the whole way towards 55-60W...and then guess what...yep this one looks just about a certain recurve again, that weakness is SO stubborn at the moment!

[KWT]

06z GFS turns this one NW by about 55W in response to reaching the large weakness left by Danielle...

Looking just about certain this one recurves into Danielle's weakness now.

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models

WHXX01 KWBC 251234
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1234 UTC WED AUG 25 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN (AL072010) 20100825 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100825 1200 100826 0000 100826 1200 100827 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.2N 30.3W 14.8N 33.8W 15.2N 37.0W 15.7N 40.1W
BAMD 14.2N 30.3W 15.0N 32.7W 16.0N 35.3W 17.1N 37.8W
BAMM 14.2N 30.3W 15.0N 33.3W 15.8N 36.5W 16.6N 39.5W
LBAR 14.2N 30.3W 14.7N 33.6W 15.4N 37.2W 16.3N 40.8W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100827 1200 100828 1200 100829 1200 100830 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.1N 43.1W 17.1N 48.7W 19.1N 54.8W 21.9N 59.5W
BAMD 18.1N 40.6W 19.4N 45.9W 20.5N 51.0W 22.5N 56.4W
BAMM 17.2N 42.6W 18.0N 48.9W 19.2N 54.6W 20.7N 58.3W
LBAR 17.0N 44.2W 17.8N 50.2W 17.7N 54.0W 19.7N 57.4W
SHIP 59KTS 73KTS 79KTS 85KTS
DSHP 59KTS 73KTS 79KTS 85KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.2N LONCUR = 30.3W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 14.0N LONM12 = 25.8W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 19KT
LATM24 = 13.1N LONM24 = 23.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[ROCK]

06z GFS turns this one NW by about 55W in response to reaching the large weakness left by Danielle...

Looking just about certain this one recurves into Danielle's weakness now.

just about certain? can you put that into percentages?....

[hurricaneCW]

I still feel this one could get further west than Danielle but everything will depend on where she ends up. If she basically drifts to the north than this one will almost certainly follow her.

[ronjon]

06z GFS turns this one NW by about 55W in response to reaching the large weakness left by Danielle...

Looking just about certain this one recurves into Danielle's weakness now.

Perhaps KWT but its a long way off and things almost always change that far in advance - that's why models aren't all that good after 72 hrs. Models have been trending west since the first run on 96L.

[Blown Away]

12z looks more west again!

[bvigal]

This fix with motion of 270 (due W) at 20kt will keep my attention, until the heads at NHC weigh in on track.

[HURAKAN]

[SFLcane]

CV fish season is indeed in full affect as we end august. Earl is highly unlikely to make a run at the eastcoast based on the overall pattern across the atl. Plenty of hurdles.

[LowndesCoFire]

CV fish season is indeed in full affect as we end august. Earl is highly unlikely to make a run at the eastcoast based on the overall pattern across the atl. Plenty of hurdles.

Yes he has some hurdles, but its still too ealy to say what will happen. Look back a few pages on here and see...models first turned this joker beginning at 50W-55W, now we're looking at a potential curve at 55W-65W or perhaps farther with each new day!! Moving due west at the moment. Would not shock me if Earl came suprisingly close to the E Coast, not thinking a landfall, but suprisingly close!

[LowndesCoFire]

What are the chances of future Earl staying low and keeping the due W motion through the next several days? Just curious due to the models trending more and more west with each day.

[hurricaneCW]

Earl's track is going to be closely related to whatever Danielle does. Perhaps if Danielle fails to strengthen and TD7 stays far south enough, then it might slip under the weakness or get very close to the east coast. It has a better chance than Danielle because it'll be further south but it's going to be very difficult to overcome her weakness, but I'm not ruling out the possibility of a further west track.

I also think this one will get a lot stronger than Danielle, she had a lot of dry air in her path, this one has a more moist atmosphere so it could become stronger in the future.

[KWT]

Oh without a doubt this one will be highly unlikely to threaten the east coast, there is like an invisable chain just ready to pick up anything above 15N due to the weakness near 60W, looks like the same trough that picks up Danielle will also take Earl out to sea and we may see a fairly sharp turn to the north like the models show.

Models yet again in superb agreement, I tell ya what apart from Alex they've been very good this year overall, esp with these sorts of evolutions.

[CrazyC83]

A stronger Earl would also send it poleward as well? So if Earl became a major hurricane, it would be more likely to catch the trough?

[pricetag56]

looks like another wave is coming off africa