ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[Cuber]

Sure do miss Derek Ortt !!

Yea What happened with Derek??

From Ortts old website nwhhc.com:

I, Derek Ortt, have accepted a position with another company as a hurricane forecaster on May 24, 2010. Therefore, it is no longer possible to continue nwhhc.com.

[Aric Dunn]

Air Force: Could the two storms interact if 98L stalls or drifts north? I don't think the GOM is big enough to get a Fujiwara Effect? Or does the 900 mile factor overtake the limited size of the GOM?

well one thing that could happen is if the system in the gulf gets strong enough to push on the western extent of the ridge then bonnie could bend more to the right in the gulf

[Bocadude85]

Air Force: Could the two storms interact if 98L stalls or drifts north? I don't think the GOM is big enough to get a Fujiwara Effect? Or does the 900 mile factor overtake the limited size of the GOM?

well one thing that could happen is if the system in the gulf gets strong enough to push on the western extent of the ridge then bonnie could bend more to the right in the gulf

What do you think trackwise for TD 3 skim along the north Cuban coast or shoot the straits?

[wzrgirl1]

At what time can we expect the first advisory and/or watches/warnings to come out? I know it's usually at 11:00 but sometimes it is posted earlier right?

[thetruesms]

At what time can we expect the first advisory and/or watches/warnings to come out? I know it's usually at 11:00 but sometimes it is posted earlier right?

answered your own question

[poof121]

At what time can we expect the first advisory and/or watches/warnings to come out? I know it's usually at 11:00 but sometimes it is posted earlier right?

Maybe 15 minutes early, depending on when they get everything together...

[Air Force Met]

Oops did not see the new tracks. Looks as if none of the models are pointing to the mainland of South Florida which is good for us, but not good for Gulf of Mexico as there will be no land to interact with the circulation.

IMHO...it was never headed in that direction. All of the models which were pointing to that area were hosed. I've been briefing my staff that this is LA-MS if it deeloped early (as in yesterday)...or CNTL LA - SE TX if it waited until today or tomorrow.

The EURO has been consistent in showing TX. Given the massive nature of this ridge...I think its pretty close.

Not exactly what I wanted to hear, What do you think of the Upper level pattern later this weekend and thanks for posting.

When it comes to frecasting what TUTT is going to do...I just simply say: " I don't know."

TUTT's are always badly forecated by the models. One does better by simply observing it for a time and making their own forecast. I think it will back far enough away by Saturday to allow for some development....maybe to a Cat 1. It could make a run at Cat 2 as it nears the coast...but I think the upper winds and the heat content are going to make that difficult.

[jlauderdal]

check posters location before reading posters forecast, just sayin

Don't imply that I'm -removed-....South Florida is still under a threat.

of course south florida is in the cone but when the model trend has been south and someone says oh they are guaranteed to switch north it makes people wonder so if you have a reason for them to switch north then we are all ears

[Comanche]

Air Force: Could the two storms interact if 98L stalls or drifts north? I don't think the GOM is big enough to get a Fujiwara Effect? Or does the 900 mile factor overtake the limited size of the GOM?

If 98L stalls or moves due north, it will be destroyed by the ULL that is moving towards it, look at a water vapor loop and you will see the ULL rapidly approaching 98L.

[SFLcane]

If this indeed tracks through the close to the keys SFL will be on the dirty side of this tropical cyclone which will make for a nasty day tommorow. Anyone else feel to comment on possible affects for mainland sfl.

[Blown Away]

IMO, this TD is moving NW and is 30+ miles NNW of the 12z model initial point.

[Tireman4]

AFM: When it comes to frecasting what TUTT is going to do...I just simply say: " I don't know."

TUTT's are always badly forecated by the models. One does better by simply observing it for a time and making their own forecast. I think it will back far enough away by Saturday to allow for some development....maybe to a Cat 1. It could make a run at Cat 2 as it nears the coast...but I think the upper winds and the heat content are going to make that difficult.


Thank you again for being clear and concise. We do appreciate it during the season.

[cwachal]

does anyone think that we still may see this thing bomb in terms of pressure but never reach hurricane in terms of winds kind of like Alex did for the longest time.... much lower winds then pressure would support

[tolakram]

Air Force: Could the two storms interact if 98L stalls or drifts north? I don't think the GOM is big enough to get a Fujiwara Effect? Or does the 900 mile factor overtake the limited size of the GOM?

If 98L stalls or moves due north, it will be destroyed by the ULL that is moving towards it, look at a water vapor loop and you will see the ULL rapidly approaching 98L.

Look at the WV loop and you'll also notice some anti-cyclonic movement over top or in the vicinity of 97L. See how the cloud tops are starting to fan out SE of the center? I'm not forcasting anything, just observing.

[Vortmax1]

The south Florida newspapers are busy yacking about all of this.
But at least the PB Post has some input from the Miami NWS.

http://blogs.palmbeachpost.com/eyeonthe ... a-minimal/

[RL3AO]

does anyone think that we still may see this thing bomb in terms of pressure but never reach hurricane in terms of winds kind of like Alex did for the longest time.... much lower winds then pressure would support

Probably not. Its a pretty tight system unlike Alex which took time to consolidate

[Clint_TX]

When it comes to frecasting what TUTT is going to do...I just simply say: " I don't know."

TUTT's are always badly forecated by the models. One does better by simply observing it for a time and making their own forecast. I think it will back far enough away by Saturday to allow for some development....maybe to a Cat 1. It could make a run at Cat 2 as it nears the coast...but I think the upper winds and the heat content are going to make that difficult.[/quote]

Will heat content really play that big of a role if it's moving at a steady clip? Looks like the surface temps are warm enough?

[Aric Dunn]

Air Force: Could the two storms interact if 98L stalls or drifts north? I don't think the GOM is big enough to get a Fujiwara Effect? Or does the 900 mile factor overtake the limited size of the GOM?

well one thing that could happen is if the system in the gulf gets strong enough to push on the western extent of the ridge then bonnie could bend more to the right in the gulf

What do you think trackwise for TD 3 skim along the north Cuban coast or shoot the straits?

it will likely head for the keys and south florida..there is a slight weakness in the ridge that should start a solid wnw track shortly and that should last until florida. afterwards the ridge is forecast to build back in and then bonnie should make to the central gulf coast in a few days..

[AdamFirst]

check posters location before reading posters forecast, just sayin

Don't imply that I'm -removed-....South Florida is still under a threat.

of course south florida is in the cone but when the model trend has been south and someone says oh they are guaranteed to switch north it makes people wonder so if you have a reason for them to switch north then we are all ears

I was under the impression for the past three days that stronger system = northerly movement tendencies = models shift north?

How does that change now?

[Aric Dunn]

IMO, this TD is moving NW and is 30+ miles NNW of the 12z model initial point.

yeah there does seem to be a more wnw motion then before...