220730 1636N 07451W 8436 01479 0022 +145 +030 184060 061 058 022 00
220800 1637N 07449W 8434 01481 0024 +145 +030 178057 058 059 024 00
61 knots FL and 59 knots SFMR
ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Those are the highest winds that recon has measured since Tomas was a hurricane just east of the Windwards.
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SouthDadeFish
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cyclonic chronic
starting to get his act together. though ive said that a few times with this system!! so i take it with a grain of salt. yet recon is finding stronger fl winds and SFMR estimates. that exposed LLC finally got under the main conv. so maybe it is getting stronger, not to mention the pressure has fallen. if it misses land and stays over water, who knows the bahamas might have a hurricane IF, IF this strengthening sustains itself. but haiti, poor haiti, i hope they did what they needed to do. theyre prob. be a few fatalities but hopefully not what it could've been.
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I'm not surprised, these sorts of comma type systems tend to be a bit stronger then thier presentation gives on, probably could justify going upto 55kts now based on the surface winds and FL winds, certainly stronger then the NHC expected for now...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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guyclaude08
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
can someone tell me where is tomas right now??? and when it's gonna arrive in Haiti plzzz cuz im feeling the winds in DR ???
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lester
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
guyclaude08 wrote:can someone tell me where is tomas right now??? and when it's gonna arrive in Haiti plzzz cuz im feeling the winds in DR ???
Looks like the center is expected to pass near haiti tonight. Stay safe!
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Gustywind
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Tomas approaches Haiti; landfall expected in Cuba
By Ashley Hayes, CNN
November 4, 2010 -- Updated 2106 GMT (0506 HKT)
http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/ameri ... tml?hpt=T2
(CNN) -- Rain associated with Tropical Storm Tomas began falling on Haiti on Thursday afternoon as aid agencies scrambled to move as many people as possible into storm shelters.
The storm -- even if it does not regain hurricane strength -- could deal a disastrous blow to a nation still struggling to its feet after a devastating January earthquake.
"People are already dislocated," said Leonard Doyle, spokesman for the International Organization for Migration, which is moving about 2,000 people from the Corail Cesselesse tent camp into a nearby shelter: a former church.
The group is working "as fast as we can," he said Thursday morning.
"We don't have anywhere to move any of the people in the camps that we manage directly other than Corail," Deb Ingersoll of the American Refugee Committee said of the Corail Cesselesse camp. The committee serves about 100,000 people in three other camps, she said.
Although her organization is helping disseminate information and encourage people to leave, "to be honest, I'm not sure many of them will," she said. "They're very entrenched here," and many worry about losing their possessions.
"They're looking at us like we're crazy for telling them they should leave," Ingersoll said. "They don't seem to think this is an event. ... Aid workers are far more worried than they are."
She said group members are dismantling tents in the center of camp to prevent them from becoming projectiles in the wind and encouraging residents to find family or friends who still have homes to stay with. Videos of relocations on the International Organization for Migration's website show pickups piled precariously with mattresses and people.
The forecast provided a bit of good news Thursday, saying Tomas is no longer expected to re-intensify into a hurricane before it passes by Haiti and Cuba through the 50-mile-wide Windward Passage. Although Tomas is expected to become a hurricane again, that is not forecast until it is a bit north of Cuba and Haiti.
In addition, the track has shifted westward, meaning a landfall is now anticipated on the eastern tip of Cuba. There is still a risk of a Haiti landfall, however, as the nation is within the cone of uncertainty.
However, despite its classification, Tomas is forecast to dump 5 to 10 inches of rain on Haiti, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches in some areas -- amounts that could trigger flooding and landslides. In addition, a storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the warning area in areas of onshore winds, accompanied by "large and destructive waves," said the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. As of 5 p.m. Thursday, Tomas' winds were at 50 mph (80 kph).
"The next 36 hours are the primary threat to the area," said National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read.
The main threat is the heavy rain, he said, which will be strongest Thursday night and Friday morning.
"Any amount of rain is dangerous here," Ingersoll said, noting that many residents are housed in tents that have experienced sun, rain and wind for 11 months and are "not very well secured."
Rain bands associated with Tomas were moving across Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday afternoon, the Hurricane Center said.
The government has been advising Haitians to seek sturdy shelter since Wednesday, Doyle said. Humanitarian organizations are doing what they can. But with an estimated 1.3 million Haitians left homeless by the January 12 earthquake, the task before them is enormous.
"For most [internally displaced persons] and those living in communities vulnerable to flooding, there are few good options," the International Organization for Migration says on its website. Winds associated with Tomas, if it re-intensifies into a hurricane, could reach 100 mph, and "these could be accompanied by bands of torrential rain certain to shred the already-fragile IDP shelters. There are many camps at risk from landslides and flash flooding if the storm strikes."
In a video posted on the organization's website, staffer Renald Dezarin said he stayed in one of the tents previously, and it was a "frightening situation" when the wind blew or rain fell.
Even before the 7.0-magnitude earthquake, Haiti was the poorest country in the Americas, with about 80 percent of its residents living in poverty, according to the CIA World Factbook. As it grappled with rebuilding, a cholera outbreak occurred, with a current death toll of nearly 450 people.
"Even if Tomas only brushes Haiti, it may exacerbate the epidemic, facilitating the spread of the disease into and throughout metropolitan Port-au-Prince, where a third of the population remains homeless and in camps," the International Organization for Migration said.
But many structures that would usually be used for storm shelters -- schools and hospitals -- are no longer standing. And many of Haiti's homeless have no options. "Clearly, there's not enough [structures]," Ingersoll said.
"If I had friends or family with homes, I would have been there on the 13th of January," the day after the earthquake, Franklin Mezulus, 53, told Time magazine. Mezulus lives in a camp on a hillside outside of Port-au-Prince with eight children under his care, according to Time. "If a storm hits, I'll have nowhere to go."
A hurricane warning was issued for Haiti late Wednesday. Another hurricane warning was issued early Thursday for the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos. The government of Cuba issued a warning for the province of Guantanamo on Thursday as well. The warning means hurricane conditions are expected in 24 to 36 hours, according to the Hurricane Center.
As of 5 p.m. Thursday, the center of Tomas was about 110 miles (175 kilometers) south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, and about 280 miles (450 kilometers) west-southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti. It was moving north at 5 mph (7 kph).
Tomas was once was a Category 2 hurricane and then weakened to a tropical depression before re-intensifying.
Forecast maps show Tomas crossing the eastern tip of Cuba early Friday as a tropical storm. "On the forecast track, the center will pass near Jamaica or Haiti tonight, near or over extreme eastern Cuba Friday and near or over the southeastern Bahamas late Friday and Friday night," the Hurricane Center said. It was expected to turn northeast and accelerate over the next two days.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast within the warning area later Thursday. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 120 miles (195 kilometers) from Tomas' center, mostly to the east.
In August, the Clinton Foundation committed $1 million to build 14 emergency shelters in Haiti, and six are complete, each able to house 80 people, Time said. The Red Cross has positioned supplies in Port-au-Prince and southwestern coastal cities ahead of Tomas, the magazine said. The U.S. Southern Command said Wednesday that the USS Iwo Jima has been deployed to Haiti to provide humanitarian support.
But "we're basically maxed out," Oxfam spokeswoman Julie Schindall told Time. "We're mounting two emergency responses, and we can't handle a third."
Haiti's president and prime minister held an emergency Cabinet meeting to discuss evacuations of coastal communities, the United Nations said Wednesday.
Doyle pointed out that Haitians are "incredibly resourceful," even if they don't have much to work with. A strong people with robust family ties, Haitians have experienced hurricanes before, he said.
Elsewhere, a tropical storm warning was issued for Jamaica, and the southern coast of the Dominican Republic -- from the Haitian border eastward to Barahona -- was under a tropical storm watch, as were the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba and Holguin as Tomas neared.
The storm is expected to pass just to the east of Jamaica, but is predicted to produce only 1 to 3 inches of rain there. Three to 5 inches is predicted over the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos, the Hurricane Center said.
Tomas hit the West Indies island of St. Lucia as a Category 1 hurricane on Sunday morning and caused major damage by the time its winds subsided Monday night. At least 12 people died in the storm, according to St. Lucian Prime Minister Stephenson King.
Rebuilding has begun on the island, including the rehabilitation of two bridges that collapsed in the storm, St. Lucia's government said in a posting on its website this week. King has asked France to assist the island "in the aftermath of what is already being described as the worst-ever natural disaster in St. Lucian history," the government said.
The Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility has said it will make payments to St. Lucia, Barbados, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines for damage sustained in Tomas. Preliminary calculations show a payout of $3.2 million for St. Lucia, but the government estimated that the damage caused by the storm could surpass $100 million.
St. Lucia said it will be ready to "welcome all visitors in its usual legendary fashion" by November 12. Cruise ship calls to the island, which had been suspended in Tomas' wake, will resume Friday.
The popular tourist area of Soufriere was "devastated" by the storm, King said in the statement. "It's not just a question of clearing these roads; sections of the network have completely disappeared. We are just going to have to find another way in and out of the town."
By Ashley Hayes, CNN
November 4, 2010 -- Updated 2106 GMT (0506 HKT)
http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/ameri ... tml?hpt=T2(CNN) -- Rain associated with Tropical Storm Tomas began falling on Haiti on Thursday afternoon as aid agencies scrambled to move as many people as possible into storm shelters.
The storm -- even if it does not regain hurricane strength -- could deal a disastrous blow to a nation still struggling to its feet after a devastating January earthquake.
"People are already dislocated," said Leonard Doyle, spokesman for the International Organization for Migration, which is moving about 2,000 people from the Corail Cesselesse tent camp into a nearby shelter: a former church.
The group is working "as fast as we can," he said Thursday morning.
"We don't have anywhere to move any of the people in the camps that we manage directly other than Corail," Deb Ingersoll of the American Refugee Committee said of the Corail Cesselesse camp. The committee serves about 100,000 people in three other camps, she said.
Although her organization is helping disseminate information and encourage people to leave, "to be honest, I'm not sure many of them will," she said. "They're very entrenched here," and many worry about losing their possessions.
"They're looking at us like we're crazy for telling them they should leave," Ingersoll said. "They don't seem to think this is an event. ... Aid workers are far more worried than they are."
She said group members are dismantling tents in the center of camp to prevent them from becoming projectiles in the wind and encouraging residents to find family or friends who still have homes to stay with. Videos of relocations on the International Organization for Migration's website show pickups piled precariously with mattresses and people.
The forecast provided a bit of good news Thursday, saying Tomas is no longer expected to re-intensify into a hurricane before it passes by Haiti and Cuba through the 50-mile-wide Windward Passage. Although Tomas is expected to become a hurricane again, that is not forecast until it is a bit north of Cuba and Haiti.
In addition, the track has shifted westward, meaning a landfall is now anticipated on the eastern tip of Cuba. There is still a risk of a Haiti landfall, however, as the nation is within the cone of uncertainty.
However, despite its classification, Tomas is forecast to dump 5 to 10 inches of rain on Haiti, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches in some areas -- amounts that could trigger flooding and landslides. In addition, a storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the warning area in areas of onshore winds, accompanied by "large and destructive waves," said the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. As of 5 p.m. Thursday, Tomas' winds were at 50 mph (80 kph).
"The next 36 hours are the primary threat to the area," said National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read.
The main threat is the heavy rain, he said, which will be strongest Thursday night and Friday morning.
"Any amount of rain is dangerous here," Ingersoll said, noting that many residents are housed in tents that have experienced sun, rain and wind for 11 months and are "not very well secured."
Rain bands associated with Tomas were moving across Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday afternoon, the Hurricane Center said.
The government has been advising Haitians to seek sturdy shelter since Wednesday, Doyle said. Humanitarian organizations are doing what they can. But with an estimated 1.3 million Haitians left homeless by the January 12 earthquake, the task before them is enormous.
"For most [internally displaced persons] and those living in communities vulnerable to flooding, there are few good options," the International Organization for Migration says on its website. Winds associated with Tomas, if it re-intensifies into a hurricane, could reach 100 mph, and "these could be accompanied by bands of torrential rain certain to shred the already-fragile IDP shelters. There are many camps at risk from landslides and flash flooding if the storm strikes."
In a video posted on the organization's website, staffer Renald Dezarin said he stayed in one of the tents previously, and it was a "frightening situation" when the wind blew or rain fell.
Even before the 7.0-magnitude earthquake, Haiti was the poorest country in the Americas, with about 80 percent of its residents living in poverty, according to the CIA World Factbook. As it grappled with rebuilding, a cholera outbreak occurred, with a current death toll of nearly 450 people.
"Even if Tomas only brushes Haiti, it may exacerbate the epidemic, facilitating the spread of the disease into and throughout metropolitan Port-au-Prince, where a third of the population remains homeless and in camps," the International Organization for Migration said.
But many structures that would usually be used for storm shelters -- schools and hospitals -- are no longer standing. And many of Haiti's homeless have no options. "Clearly, there's not enough [structures]," Ingersoll said.
"If I had friends or family with homes, I would have been there on the 13th of January," the day after the earthquake, Franklin Mezulus, 53, told Time magazine. Mezulus lives in a camp on a hillside outside of Port-au-Prince with eight children under his care, according to Time. "If a storm hits, I'll have nowhere to go."
A hurricane warning was issued for Haiti late Wednesday. Another hurricane warning was issued early Thursday for the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos. The government of Cuba issued a warning for the province of Guantanamo on Thursday as well. The warning means hurricane conditions are expected in 24 to 36 hours, according to the Hurricane Center.
As of 5 p.m. Thursday, the center of Tomas was about 110 miles (175 kilometers) south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, and about 280 miles (450 kilometers) west-southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti. It was moving north at 5 mph (7 kph).
Tomas was once was a Category 2 hurricane and then weakened to a tropical depression before re-intensifying.
Forecast maps show Tomas crossing the eastern tip of Cuba early Friday as a tropical storm. "On the forecast track, the center will pass near Jamaica or Haiti tonight, near or over extreme eastern Cuba Friday and near or over the southeastern Bahamas late Friday and Friday night," the Hurricane Center said. It was expected to turn northeast and accelerate over the next two days.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast within the warning area later Thursday. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 120 miles (195 kilometers) from Tomas' center, mostly to the east.
In August, the Clinton Foundation committed $1 million to build 14 emergency shelters in Haiti, and six are complete, each able to house 80 people, Time said. The Red Cross has positioned supplies in Port-au-Prince and southwestern coastal cities ahead of Tomas, the magazine said. The U.S. Southern Command said Wednesday that the USS Iwo Jima has been deployed to Haiti to provide humanitarian support.
But "we're basically maxed out," Oxfam spokeswoman Julie Schindall told Time. "We're mounting two emergency responses, and we can't handle a third."
Haiti's president and prime minister held an emergency Cabinet meeting to discuss evacuations of coastal communities, the United Nations said Wednesday.
Doyle pointed out that Haitians are "incredibly resourceful," even if they don't have much to work with. A strong people with robust family ties, Haitians have experienced hurricanes before, he said.
Elsewhere, a tropical storm warning was issued for Jamaica, and the southern coast of the Dominican Republic -- from the Haitian border eastward to Barahona -- was under a tropical storm watch, as were the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba and Holguin as Tomas neared.
The storm is expected to pass just to the east of Jamaica, but is predicted to produce only 1 to 3 inches of rain there. Three to 5 inches is predicted over the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos, the Hurricane Center said.
Tomas hit the West Indies island of St. Lucia as a Category 1 hurricane on Sunday morning and caused major damage by the time its winds subsided Monday night. At least 12 people died in the storm, according to St. Lucian Prime Minister Stephenson King.
Rebuilding has begun on the island, including the rehabilitation of two bridges that collapsed in the storm, St. Lucia's government said in a posting on its website this week. King has asked France to assist the island "in the aftermath of what is already being described as the worst-ever natural disaster in St. Lucian history," the government said.
The Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility has said it will make payments to St. Lucia, Barbados, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines for damage sustained in Tomas. Preliminary calculations show a payout of $3.2 million for St. Lucia, but the government estimated that the damage caused by the storm could surpass $100 million.
St. Lucia said it will be ready to "welcome all visitors in its usual legendary fashion" by November 12. Cruise ship calls to the island, which had been suspended in Tomas' wake, will resume Friday.
The popular tourist area of Soufriere was "devastated" by the storm, King said in the statement. "It's not just a question of clearing these roads; sections of the network have completely disappeared. We are just going to have to find another way in and out of the town."
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hurricaneCW
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
The failure to evacuate might be because of fear. They are afraid to leave their home and not have it be gone if they return. Just picture all the people who didn't want to evacuate during Katrina or Ike. Leaving where you lived all your life is a psychological blow and I'm not surprised at the hostility. People who haven't been through it may never understand why some people react that way.
Anyway, based on recon and IR, Tomas may be strengthening a bit. I'd probably go up to 50 knots, the pressure has also dropped a bit. There is a nice burst near the LLC right now, very cold cloud tops, so we'll see what happens.
Anyway, based on recon and IR, Tomas may be strengthening a bit. I'd probably go up to 50 knots, the pressure has also dropped a bit. There is a nice burst near the LLC right now, very cold cloud tops, so we'll see what happens.
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cyclonic chronic
Re: ATL : TOMAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
hurricaneCW wrote:The failure to evacuate might be because of fear. They are afraid to leave their home and not have it be gone if they return. Just picture all the people who didn't want to evacuate during Katrina or Ike. Leaving where you lived all your life is a psychological blow and I'm not surprised at the hostility. People who haven't been through it may never understand why some people react that way.
Anyway, based on recon and IR, Tomas may be strengthening a bit. I'd probably go up to 50 knots, the pressure has also dropped a bit. There is a nice burst near the LLC right now, very cold cloud tops, so we'll see what happens.
i agree, its gotta be very frightening. but people are trying to help them. also it is only one report and i might've been too harsh and rushed to judgement too soon. i appologize. the loss of a single human life is not cool. haiti has been realtively lucky this year(not counting the earthquake) with regards to t.c.'s. there are strong feelings on both sides of the issue and i knew it would come to a head if a storm threatened. politicts aside i was wrong.
also looks like a big convective mass has developed closer to the supposed LLC. hopefully it wont R.I. until it gets out into the atlantic.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/wv-l.jpg
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Tomas has started the intensification phase. There is a small window of time for intensification, about 24 hr.
I don't know why I never mentioned this before, I've been trying out twitter off and on during the summer, you can follow me there if you like.
http://twitter.com/TropCycloneSoup
I don't know why I never mentioned this before, I've been trying out twitter off and on during the summer, you can follow me there if you like.
http://twitter.com/TropCycloneSoup
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hurricaneCW
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
i agree, its gotta be very frightening. but people are trying to help them. also it is only one report and i might've been too harsh and rushed to judgement too soon. i appologize. the loss of a single human life is not cool. haiti has been realtively lucky this year(not counting the earthquake) with regards to t.c.'s. there are strong feelings on both sides of the issue and i knew it would come to a head if a storm threatened. politicts aside i was wrong.[/quote]
I think an earthquake that kills over a 100,000 completely counteracts the fact that they haven't had a TC impact this season up to now. In fact, if they had to trade between a TC or an earthquake, I think most would choose a TC. Yes, thousands could die/get injured but the overall impacts would be far less severe than an earthquake compared to even a major hurricane.
I think an earthquake that kills over a 100,000 completely counteracts the fact that they haven't had a TC impact this season up to now. In fact, if they had to trade between a TC or an earthquake, I think most would choose a TC. Yes, thousands could die/get injured but the overall impacts would be far less severe than an earthquake compared to even a major hurricane.
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HURAKAN
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TROPICAL STORM TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
800 PM EDT THU NOV 04 2010
...TOMAS SHOWING SIGNS OF GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EASTERN JAMAICA AND HAITI...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 75.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 020 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
800 PM EDT THU NOV 04 2010
...TOMAS SHOWING SIGNS OF GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EASTERN JAMAICA AND HAITI...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 75.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 020 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
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vbhoutex
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
A decision to evacuate in the best of circumstances is a very difficult one. I and many others on this site understand that. I have had to make those decisions for both Rita and Ike. Big difference with me is I live in a substantial house that is not prone to flooding and have more than most of those people even dream is possible. I can imagine they are wondering if they are being duped, as they may have been before, and just the fear of coming back to nothing when you really have nothing must be overwhelming. I do hope it has all worked out for the best for all.
Meanwhile it does appear Tomas may be doing what we all hoped he would not, intensifying. My thoughts and prayers go out to all those in his path.
Meanwhile it does appear Tomas may be doing what we all hoped he would not, intensifying. My thoughts and prayers go out to all those in his path.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Pressure down to 988 mbs on pass by NOAA plane.
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