ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 21, 2010110500, , BEST, 0, 170N, 757W, 55, 989, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest


Up to 55kts.

[KWT]

Yep Tomas upto 55kts now, clearly in a strengthening phase right now though I still think its 50-50 whether it becomes a hurricane...Still the convection over Haiti is the huge problem...need to hope it speeds up sooner then expected.

[Macrocane]

The best it has looked since it was a hurricane, it's kind of surprising the increase in organization in the last couple of hours tonight is going to be the last chance for Tomas to reach hurricane strength.

[CrazyC83]

Dropsonde found a pressure of 990mb - with 45 kt surface winds. That would support a current pressure of 986mb.

[Canerecon]

I think I see a wind shift to the north west of the last vort message. The HDOB that has the lowest pressure in the area is:

Time: 00:13:30Z
Coordinates: 17.0N 75.7W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.3 mb (~ 20.56 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,086 meters (~ 10,125 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 987.5 mb (~ 29.16 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 331° at 17 knots (From the NNW at ~ 19.5 mph)
Air Temp: 16.2°C (~ 61.2°F)
Dew Pt: 12.0°C (~ 53.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 18 knots (~ 20.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 26 knots* (~ 29.9 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr* (~ 0.04 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data

[JTE50]

I'm over here in Port Au Prince and we have had steady rain for the past 6 hours. Here is a link to some pics and video from today and yesterday if anyone wants to see the lay of the land. So far no flooding.

http://stormvisuals.com/blog/2010/11/4/haiti-as-tropical-storm-tomas-nears-video.html

http://stormvisuals.com/blog/2010/11/4/hurricane-chasers-on-the-ground-in-haiti-for-tomas.html

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

developing eye or break in the clouds? anyway, Tomás is much better organized

[SouthDadeFish]

Well that was quick. Almost a hurricane it looks like.

[Ntxw]

Shear/dry air is approaching from the west along with the trough. Lets hope it comes in time to stop the strengthening and perhaps weaken Tomas. Though it may be too late at this point...

[cycloneye]

Sad news from Haiti as the first death was reported.

First Death in Haiti related to Tomas

[Sanibel]

Maybe some venting up the front tightened it up a little?

[bahamaswx]

developing eye or break in the clouds? anyway, Tomás is much better organized

Too far east. Just a break in the clouds.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 75.5W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.

[JTE50]

Sad news from Haiti as the first death was reported.

First Death in Haiti related to Tomas

That area is about 100 miles west of us here in Port Au Prince. I chatted with a guy from the AP and he said they have folks scattered out all over Haiti. I know they have someone in that area.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 PM EDT THU NOV 04 2010

...TOMAS STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
EASTERN JAMAICA AND WESTERN HAITI...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
NOW OCCURRING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 75.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES

[cycloneye]

Sad news from Haiti as the first death was reported.

First Death in Haiti related to Tomas

That area is about 100 miles west of us here in Port Au Prince. I chatted with a guy from the AP and he said they have folks scattered out all over Haiti. I know they have someone in that area.

Jim,stay safe there.

[SouthDadeFish]

Some EXTREMELY intense convection is firing and expanding:

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[TimeZone]

WOW look at those cloud tops!