ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[Aquawind]

Dang.. Looks like Tomas is getting organized to add the wind factor into the damage afterall.

[ozonepete]

Finally getting its act together at the worst possible time. Gettimg symmetry - the whole circulation is no longer scattered over a wide area. All of the major convection is converging around the center.

[Macrocane]

Maybe a special advisory instead of the intermediate, it looks very well organized, the outflow, the banding and the convection have improved a lot.

[ozonepete]

Wow. This is really bad.

[Ivanhater]

Northern Haiti could take the brunt of this system with the heavy rain.

[warmer]

sure is exploding right now

[Macrocane]

The black colors are already reaching Haiti, Tomas is following the same trend of Alex, Karl and Richard intensifying just before landfall.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[ozonepete]

Northern Haiti could take the brunt of this system with the heavy rain.

Exactly. The orographic lift there could be catastrophic if Tomas doesn't pick up more speed.

[Macrocane]

Gonaives may be in danger again, it was one of the most affected cities by Jeanne, Hanna and Ike.

[bahamaswx]

Really deep burst. Definitely on his way back to hurricane status.

[FireRat]

Can there be a reason why almost all of this year's storms intensified at the last minute before landfall? Or is it just coincidence that 4 of the most significant storms (landfallers) this season are doing so?

It is quite a trend, and one not often seen as most tend to weaken a bit before moving inland.
Tomas took 5 days to regain its lost strength, and pulls it off less than a day before landfall. Richard waited until the last 5 hours until hitting Belize. Alex did it 12 hrs before if I'm not mistaken, Karl did the very same thing as Alex, and even Paula was kinda close. Weird.

[ozonepete]

Just getting worse. Hope this is a temporary burst.

[JTE50]

Sad news from Haiti as the first death was reported.

First Death in Haiti related to Tomas

That area is about 100 miles west of us here in Port Au Prince. I chatted with a guy from the AP and he said they have folks scattered out all over Haiti. I know they have someone in that area.

Jim,stay safe there.

Will do. We are going to head west about 80miles in the morning out to where the heavier rainfall is expected.

[ozonepete]

Just want to echo that Jim. Stay safe out there.

[TCmet]

After being knocked out by damage from Tomas themselves, the CIMH servers in Barbados are back online.



They use a 4km WRF model to (in my opinion) provide a very nice high res output over a very underserved domain.

Output like this has been invaluable for our work with humanitarian organizations in Haiti prepositioning relief supplies to Les Cayes and Jeremie in far western Haiti this week.

[ozonepete]

You can't underestimate symmetry. This storm has had such a large areal coverage for so many days now but has kept getting very large solitary bursts of convection in random areas far away from the center. That may have been one of the major reasons that Tomas has never been able to consolidate into one cohesive center and intensify in the way that the NHC (and most of the rest of us) kept forecasting. Anyway, it sure looks like it might be winding up into a more concentrated center now.

[warmer]

eye is forming?

[TCmet]

Also of note, the Haiti Met Service (who I visited in July...) currently consists of two EXTREMELY EXTREMELY dedicated forecasters and a very charismatic director that have been working in the basement of the air traffic control tower using borrowed computers at the airport in Port-au-Prince since shortly after the earthquake in January. Their previous headquarters was completely destroyed in the quake, and several of their colleagues lost their lives.

Despite these challenges, Haiti Met Service have really come through in the clutch during Tomas. Today was their 7th day of alert messages, meaning they gave decisionmakers in the government as well as humanitarian organizations 7 days of lead time for this storm. A really heroic job especially on such short resources. Just today they began issuing 3 hour updates on Tomas's progress.

Here's a link to their latest alert (in French): http://www.meteo-haiti.gouv.ht/vigilance.php

Excerpts via Google Translate:

Tomas is moving towards
   north northeast at 15 km / h. Max winds are blowing now
   100km / h with gusts much higher. The latest forecast
   trajectory puts Tomas between Jamaica and Haiti
   tonight. Gusty winds and heavy rain showers
   significant from 150 to 250 mm with peaks of more than 300
   millimeters on the reliefs are expected on our departments.

Accordingly, the SPGRD maintains this Thursday, November 4, 2010 at 11 pm
   the red alert level (ie impact risk of severe intensity
   to very severe) in the National Contingency Plan to threats of
   strong winds, severe thunderstorms, heavy rains with risks
   flooding and river flooding, landslides and floods
   severe in intensity.

The National Meteorological Center (NJC) in conjunction with the SPGRD and
   CPD is asking the public risk areas, remain
   vigilant and strictly implement the safety
   following.

                                 Instructions

     * Keep listening to weather reports.
     * Close tightly all the exits.
     * Avoid standing near the windows.
     * Move indoors all objects that can
       suffer the effects of wind or heavy rain.
     * Turn off any water which may be damaged if
       flood.

     * Be prepared to evacuate flood-prone areas and
       landslides: Seaside, ravines, rivers, flank
       mountains etc..

[Battlebrick]

we need recon now!! whens the next mission?