ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

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Portastorm
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#1681 Postby Portastorm » Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:44 am

TexasF6 wrote:The entire Texas coastline is in play with this slow movement....everyone should at least be getting preparations made....preparedness not panic I say...my personal thoughts are landfall as a large Cat 4 between Corpus and Galeveston....

This statement has not been endorsed by any meteorological service and is simply my opinion!!! :flag:


Wow ... bold prediction to say the least!

No offense fellow Austinite ... but I hope your prediction is incorrect.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#1682 Postby TexasF6 » Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:47 am

I know, the heat content scares me....
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Re: Re:

#1683 Postby HouTXmetro » Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:48 am

Portastorm wrote:
TexasF6 wrote:The entire Texas coastline is in play with this slow movement....everyone should at least be getting preparations made....preparedness not panic I say...my personal thoughts are landfall as a large Cat 4 between Corpus and Galeveston....

This statement has not been endorsed by any meteorological service and is simply my opinion!!! :flag:


Wow ... bold prediction to say the least!

No offense fellow Austinite ... but I hope your prediction is incorrect.


If your track comes to fruition I highly doubt it...Alex would be literally riding the Texas coast up until landfall and I doubt he would be able to fight off the dry air intrusion.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#1684 Postby Wx_Warrior » Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:48 am

gfs 12z 54h (current model)...don't think operational runs on 12z

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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#1685 Postby texbosoxfan » Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:48 am

Portastorm wrote:
TexasF6 wrote:The entire Texas coastline is in play with this slow movement....everyone should at least be getting preparations made....preparedness not panic I say...my personal thoughts are landfall as a large Cat 4 between Corpus and Galeveston....

This statement has not been endorsed by any meteorological service and is simply my opinion!!! :flag:


Wow ... bold prediction to say the least!

No offense fellow Austinite ... but I hope your prediction is incorrect.


bold, and a bit irresponsible.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#1686 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:49 am

*removed image double post

Looks like Brownsville on this run.
Last edited by PTrackerLA on Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#1687 Postby wxgirl69 » Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:50 am

I was thinking that also.. Cat 4 is a pretty bold guess!!!! I am playing it safe a bit North of Brownsville as a srong cat 1.
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#1688 Postby KWT » Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:51 am

Looks like the 12z GFS heading towards MX/TX border there...
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#1689 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:52 am

Landfall just south of border?

Image

Models may be starting to trend south again.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#1690 Postby Wx_Warrior » Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:53 am

edit: dulplicate

Looks like the GFS is now on board with a southern venture.
Last edited by Wx_Warrior on Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#1691 Postby TexasF6 » Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:53 am

Hello Austinite! I hope I am wrong as well....but where is this dry air slot coming from? I see nothing but moisture in the WV loops? If he does bend back west, that timing coupled with his speed will be crucial....And whats that "thing" spinning towards Florida? Just saw that....slightly off topic, but it is charging towards the GOM....
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#1692 Postby HouTXmetro » Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:56 am

correct me if I'm wrong, but this is a southern shift to the GFS right?
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#1693 Postby KWT » Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:57 am

Yep just south ob the border but the effects to Brownsville will probably similar to if it hits Texas, indeed conditions might even be worse if it tracks just to the south of the border.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#1694 Postby ROCK » Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:57 am

Wx_Warrior wrote:edit: dulplicate

Looks like the GFS is now on board with a southern venture.


its not the operational..... :lol: but it is in line with the EURO...
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#1695 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:57 am

HouTXmetro wrote:correct me if I'm wrong, but this is a southern shift to the GFS right?


Correct. When you consider it was showing Galveston area yesterday, a huge shift.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#1696 Postby Wx_Warrior » Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:57 am

Yes..southern on this one
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#1697 Postby barometerJane61 » Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:58 am

texbosoxfan wrote:
Portastorm wrote:
TexasF6 wrote:The entire Texas coastline is in play with this slow movement....everyone should at least be getting preparations made....preparedness not panic I say...my personal thoughts are landfall as a large Cat 4 between Corpus and Galeveston....

This statement has not been endorsed by any meteorological service and is simply my opinion!!! :flag:


Wow ... bold prediction to say the least!

No offense fellow Austinite ... but I hope your prediction is incorrect.


bold, and a bit irresponsible.


I did hear the met on the Weather Channel say Alex could get to borderline cat 3 by landfall
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#1698 Postby SunnyThoughts » Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:58 am

Wasn't there one of the models a couple days ago, that had Alex pretty much where he is now..and kept the storm there for a couple of days without moving hardly any at all?
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ALEX - MODELS

#1699 Postby HouTXmetro » Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:59 am

Wx_Warrior wrote:Yes..southern on this one


next question is what is it showing AFTER landfall...what heading? Because again if it's showing North/NNE it could come down to timing.
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Re:

#1700 Postby ROCK » Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:59 am

SunnyThoughts wrote:Wasn't there one of the models a couple days ago, that had Alex pretty much where he is now..and kept the storm there for a couple of days without moving hardly any at all?



wasnt the EURO....maybe the all knowing NAM.... :lol:
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