ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[TimeZone]

That almost looks photoshopped...

[Macrocane]

we need recon now!! whens the next mission?

The plane is already on its way, see the recon thread: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewforum.php?f=59

[Canerecon]

wrong thread removed.

[TCmet]

we need recon now!! whens the next mission?

AF 301 is in the air, currently 120mi SW of San Juan PR... should be at operational altitude and reporting observations in an hour or so.

[TimeZone]

Tomas sure has exploded....at the worst possible time as well, God I can only imagine what's going to happen to those poor people in Haiti.

[Steagle]

Already 2+ inches of torrential rain since 9:30PM here in north central DR.
Cant imagine the devistation that will occur there.
They are good people and work hard to support their families.

[Florida1118]

Already 2+ inches of torrential rain since 9:30PM here in north central DR.
Cant imagine the devistation that will occur there.
They are good people and work hard to support their families.

Very Best luck to you! Stay Safe! I'm going with A Hurr. Again at 2...cant see it being a 70mph TS

[TCmet]

recon descending to operational altitude.

whether or not they find a hurricane.... Tomas has really fired up the rain machine over southwest Haiti in the last 3-4 hours. if that overspreads the rest of the country, the humanitarian situation could turn very grave.

[bahamaswx]

Looks better every frame.

[TCmet]

Cuban radar hinting at a possible northern eyewall starting to form.

[Sanibel]

Black IR seldom lies...

[drezee]

Black IR seldom lies...

061130 1737N 07507W 8434 01374 9852 +226 +181 244026 029 039 007 03
061200 1738N 07508W 8424 01388 9847 +232 +175 261020 021 037 007 03
061230 1739N 07509W 8430 01379 9856 +210 +188 278018 021 031 007 03
061300 1741N 07509W 8429 01380 9862 +197 //// 269012 015 020 007 01

pressure down below 985

[EyELeSs1]

looks like we have a cane

080000 1751N 07512W 8422 01415 //// +147 //// 312069 079 075 022 01

[dwsqos2]

79 knots at 850 mb; suggestive of a hair below 64 knots using the 0.8 reduction factor; and SFMR values ranging from 65-75 knots; my no 'cane call was a bust most likely. I guess I should qualify this unofficial.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Decoded Vortex:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 08:07Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Storm Number & Year: 21L in 2010
Storm Name: Tomas (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 18
Observation Number: 11
A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 7:55:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°01'N 75°02'W (18.0167N 75.0333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 116 miles (186 km) to the E (89°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,311m (4,301ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the NW (304°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 8° at 60kts (From the N at ~ 69.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the NW (307°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 986mb (29.12 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,520m (4,987ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Wind Outbound: 88kts (~ 101.3mph) in the southwest quadrant at 8:00:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 88kts (~ 101.3mph) in the southwest quadrant at 8:00:30Z
Maximum Surface (likely estimated by SFMR) Wind Outbound: 75kts (~ 86.3mph) in the southwest quadrant at 8:00:10Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
LONG ACTIVE SPIRAL BAND STILL EVIDENT. FQT MDT TURBC IN BAND.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Officially a hurricane again. 80 mph at 5AM.

[TimeZone]

Hopefully it's not too bad in Haiti right now..

[Gustywind]

What a nightmare at the worst moment, that's insane !!!

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 050832
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 AM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THAT TOMAS HAS BECOME A
HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 74.9W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM W OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
COMPLETE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.9 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS WILL PASS
NEAR WESTERN HAITI THIS MORNING...NEAR OR OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA
TODAY...AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TOMAS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND BEGINNING ON
SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
REPORTS IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA
ALONG THE COAST OF HAITI...AND 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF CUBA...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA AND IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN HAITI.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING TODAY.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

[Gustywind]

Ferocious and nasty Tomas