ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[gatorcane]

I don't wither gator, but I think the GFDL's thing is purely speed. Its obviously thinking that its going to make it far enough north to get caught in trof. Again, speed thing. Do I personally think its right?...hell no, but can't count it out yet.

I am taking a look at this WV loop of the Eastern US. I can see a trough starting to dig some over southeastern Canada headed towards the NE US, but if I look back towards the Northern US/Canada border, the mid-level flow is pretty much SW to W. If the GFDL were to verify, I would expect something to be digging into the Northern US, Southern Canada area already.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

[AdamFirst]

NHC updated the advisory with new watches and warnings for Honduras

AT 1125 PM EDT...0325 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF ROATAN...GUANAJA...AND
UTILA.

AT 1125 PM EDT...0325 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD
TO THE BORDER OF HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA.

[Air Force Met]

Still don't count out the GFDL...The center could be trying to reform a bit to the NE under that new bursts going up. GFDL is still unlikely, but can't count it out just yet.

I was thinking the same thing...maybe not a reformation per say...but the LLC getting sucked under due to thermodynamics. I spoke yesterday to a fellow forecaster and told him that I expected at least a couple of jogs to the N and/or NE under deep convection once an LLC got started.

[Ivanhater]

Do you think the low is still tilted SW to NE AF?

[Cape Verde]

I can't believe I'm here at this forum in June. I'm one of those seasonal visitors and it's apparently going to be a long season.

I'm not sure there's too much to say. It's clear that the system will survive the Yucatan and emerge on the other side. From there, we have some guesses, but I think we'd all agree that we could make some better guesses Sunday evening.

But we're all going to be on edge and the reason is obvious. Oil.

Even minimal storms could impact the shores in ways we can't predict. Oh well. Here we go.

[jasons2k]

IIRC, the GFDL did the same thing with Dean. It was the lone wolf that hooked Dean towards Louisiana while the rest of the models called for a Mexico hit.

The other models were right on that...

[Aquawind]

NHC updated the advisory with new watches and warnings for Honduras

AT 1125 PM EDT...0325 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF ROATAN...GUANAJA...AND
UTILA.

AT 1125 PM EDT...0325 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD
TO THE BORDER OF HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA.

[jasons2k]

Still don't count out the GFDL...The center could be trying to reform a bit to the NE under that new bursts going up. GFDL is still unlikely, but can't count it out just yet.

I was thinking the same thing...maybe not a reformation per say...but the LLC getting sucked under due to thermodynamics. I spoke yesterday to a fellow forecaster and told him that I expected at least a couple of jogs to the N and/or NE under deep convection once an LLC got started.

I hate center relocations, they mess everything up! I still have nightmares about Ernesto...

[hurricaneCW]

Well at least we didn't have to wait until August to see something. A nice precursor to an active season. Shouldn't be a big deal for the U.S. and the Oil Spill. Looks like a Mexico strike is almost guarantee as well as Honduras. Could see some big flooding problems for those areas but we, U.S., luck out for one.

[Air Force Met]

Do you think the low is still tilted SW to NE AF?

Not sure...will have to wait for recon.

[Nederlander]

Well at least we didn't have to wait until August to see something. A nice precursor to an active season. Shouldn't be a big deal for the U.S. and the Oil Spill. Looks like a Mexico strike is almost guarantee as well as Honduras. Could see some big flooding problems for those areas but we, U.S., luck out for one.

I wouldnt say its almost 'guaranteed' (unless you are talking about the Yuc).. we are still a couple of days out from this system being in the GOM and things can change.. im hoping the model consensus verifies but i wouldnt place a bet on any long term model forecast especially if it moves slow..

EDIT: Looks to me that IF the center is indeed relocating, it could be located at 17.8N, 83.1W

[wx247]

Well at least we didn't have to wait until August to see something. A nice precursor to an active season. Shouldn't be a big deal for the U.S. and the Oil Spill. Looks like a Mexico strike is almost guarantee as well as Honduras. Could see some big flooding problems for those areas but we, U.S., luck out for one.

I wouldnt say its almost 'guaranteed' (unless you are talking about the Yuc).. we are still a couple of days out from this system being in the GOM and things can change.. im hoping the model consensus verifies but i wouldnt place a bet on any long term model forecast especially if it moves slow..

Thank you... words like guaranteed and will happen concerning a forecast are somewhat disconcerting. Accuracy of forecasts within 48 hours are difficult enough stateside, let alone forecasting a tropical cyclone five to seven days in advance.

[Aquawind]

New deep burst wrapping up on the north side..

[Nederlander]

New deep burst wrapping up on the north side..

yes, i think thats where our new center could be trying to form.. which if thats true, could mean Cozumel gets a nasty licking from this thing.. thats quite a bit further north than the LLC we've been tracking..

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[Countrygirl911]

if the llc is further north what does that mean for where this ting might make landfall will the modles move it making land fall further east like mississippi of LA or will it stay on the same track and look to hit mecico or TX i am new to everything and i love weather

[jasons2k]

I'm off to bed.

Looks like I get a crow platter as I was calling for Alex by the end of the week. I waited for the 11PM Advisory to see if it would be named and I missed it. I'll probably wake-up to it though...catch u all on the flip.

[Nederlander]

if the llc is further north what does that mean for where this ting might make landfall will the modles move it making land fall further east like mississippi of LA or will it stay on the same track and look to hit mecico or TX i am new to everything and i love weather

I doubt it will have much, if any, significance on the eventual landfall.. may have an impact on intensity though.. even if it does form a new llc north, it still has to deal with this ridge and work around it.. its not going to erode the ridge.. but if the ridge moves out earlier than expected and the GFDL verifies with this trough, then all bets are off... still thinking N. Mexico or S. TX.. regardless of the possibility of a new llc

[HouTXmetro]

In the grand scheme it probably doesn't matter. But interesting to say the least. Sure looks like center reformation is occurring. Could be wrong.

[Nederlander]

In the grand scheme it probably doesn't matter. But interesting to say the least. Sure looks like center reformation is occurring. Could be wrong.

I agree, but it could make a difference in intensity.. if the center reforms that far north.. then the center of circulation will spend much less time over land (just the tip of the yucatan)..

[Numlock]

on a lighter note:



(I didn't make it, found it elsewhere and it gave me a laugh)