ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[lester]

on a lighter note:



(I didn't make it, found it elsewhere and it gave me a laugh)

Excellent!

[thetruesms]

on a lighter note:



(I didn't make it, found it elsewhere and it gave me a laugh)

Holy crap, that kills me. That's even better than Ike's "I'm an anteater" mashup

[ozonepete]

on a lighter note:



(I didn't make it, found it elsewhere and it gave me a laugh)

gotta admit I loved that

[SunnyThoughts]

[MWatkins]

Just looking at satellite imagery tonight...I have little doubt that Alex has formed. This thing has really come together in the last 12 hours.

And, once again, it is only June.

MW

[Nederlander]

Just looking at satellite imagery tonight...I have little doubt that Alex has formed. This thing has really come together in the last 12 hours.

And, once again, it is only June.

MW

it looked even better earlier.. convection has died down a little tonight.. but im looking forward to recon tomorrow because I think a new LLC has formed to the NE where that convection has flared up...

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[HouTXmetro]

IS it that time of year yet where we are subject to the satellite blackouts late at night?

[tailgater]

Latest 850 mb vorticity looks way off, any ideas?

[HURAKAN]

A little south

[Nederlander]

Latest 850 mb vorticity looks way off, any ideas?

I believe the center is trying to relocate to the north.. that may be what the vorticity is indicating.. if thats correct, then initializations are way off..

[Ivanhater]

Pressure has risen and this has not moved at all. I think the center is relocating.

[bahamaswx]

Just needs to burst a solid CDO now.

[Weatherfreak000]

Pressure has risen and this has not moved at all. I think the center is relocating.

This shall have potentially huge ramifications as far as track.

[Nederlander]

Pressure has risen and this has not moved at all. I think the center is relocating.

This shall have potentially huge ramifications as far as track.

im not so sure itll have 'huge' ramifications as far as track.. unless the ridge weakens.. i do believe it could have an impact on intensity though..

[Wx_Warrior]

Not much...just because the center relocates doesn't mean TD 1 will now make landfall near the Florida panhandle!

[summersquall]

Nederlander called it with the center relocating slightly to the ne. Stayed up late to perhaps greet Alex, but not yet. See you at 1200.


(extremely amateur comment)

[Aquawind]

335
URNT12 KNHC 260554
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012010
A. 26/05:11:40Z
B. 16 deg 32 min N
084 deg 25 min W
C. 925 mb 747 m
D. 26 kt
E. 318 deg 95 nm
F. 068 deg 24 kt
G. 317 deg 116 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 22 C / 761 m
J. 23 C / 761 m
K. 22 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 13 / 9
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF305 0201A CYCLONE OB 06
MAX FL WIND 35 KT SE QUAD 05:45:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 35 KT SE QUAD 05:45:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
;

[Weatherfreak000]

I won't be sold on anything until Alex emerges into the GOM...you guys have been doing this for a long time come on. Anything can happen here.

[Nederlander]

I won't be sold on anything until Alex emerges into the GOM...you guys have been doing this for a long time come on. Anything can happen here.

I'm never 100 % sold on anything until it makes landfall AND dissipates (throwing that in there compliments of Allison)... the reason I think most of us are trending towards a S. TX/Mexico landfall is because of the setup, model trends, as well as a little bit of climo (the trof).. i also might add, i rarely consider climo, but in this instance I think its helpful

EDIT: and speaking of this possible center relocation... i would kill for a vis loop right now..

[CourierPR]

Nederlander, I think climatology would dictate a strike in the area of Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, not Texas.