ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[caneman]

Since the center relocated, should the track go more north?

Makes Miami to to the Keys more likely, just depends on how much it gets squeezed by the ridge.

[Bailey1777]

If its speed increases I would imagine the influence of the high would drive it more westward feeling out the perifry.

[Air Force Met]

From the 2pm advisory:

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS A LITTLE TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCATION PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. AT 200 PM
EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION HAS MOVED LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/HR SOON...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

That's funny. I hadn't seen that when I posted my disagreement with the initial placement. So...I'm not crazy.

[Aric Dunn]

From the 2pm advisory:

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS A LITTLE TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCATION PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. AT 200 PM
EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION HAS MOVED LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/HR SOON...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

one very important thing to note... from that .. they said it has moved very little ... that important because it is allowing the ULL to move even farther away which could put TD3 in a much better environment.. we already have low shear in the upper levels and the mid level shear is also decreasing.

[HouTXmetro]

From the 2pm advisory:

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS A LITTLE TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCATION PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. AT 200 PM
EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION HAS MOVED LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/HR SOON...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

I stand corrected

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Not much going on here in Miami at the moment...

[hurricanefloyd5]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

wow is this moving nw and not wnw or just a wobble

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

wow is this moving nw and not wnw or just a wobble

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Visual loops provide a much better indication of movement.

[Weatherfreak000]

I'm starting to feel now this is going to be a stronger storm than we anticipated. That center reformation, and latest satellite imagery are making me very nervous.

Edit: Are we so sure Bonnie won't impact the tip of Florida?

[CronkPSU]

has cantore been dispatched yet to key west?

[hurricanefloyd5]

ok but is it still moving nw

[Aquawind]

Actually looking at the loop it does not look as well organized at the lower levels now..almost looks like a outflow boundry moving away from the center to the SSW..not a sign of strengthening atm..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[MiamiHurricanes10]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

wow is this moving nw and not wnw or just a wobble

Yep, it's gravitating towards the weakness. However this weakness should fill in by the subtropical ridge. At the moment it looks like the LLC of 03L will be making landfall over southern Dade county.

[Aric Dunn]

My bet right now is that the center will continue to reform/migrate to the large amount of new convection beginning to develop to its north... recon will likely find the center closer to 23 N by the time their mission is over..

[eastcoastFL]

I think the forward speed along with the center moving to the north would cause some ts warnings up the coast a little furter

[Hurricane]

The path still shows a SETX/SWLA storm even with the relocation of the center.

[Vortmax1]

RECON has descended to invest level.
Obs will be coming in soon.
Here's the thread for discussion:


viewtopic.php?f=59&t=108652&start=60

[robbielyn]

Should we see some action here in palm beach county? its so beautiful out today

surf could be good...

I want wind rain and booooom

If you u want boom you need a hybrid my friend ts not usually have thunder or lightning

[lebron23]

The path still shows a SETX/SWLA storm even with the relocation of the center.

The path wasn't updated. It is updated at the 4pm cdt advisory

[Bailey1777]

With that speed I can see the models forecast track being pretty on I could see a trend even further west if this picks up much speed.