ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[HURAKAN]

I think the NHC is underestimating the WCAR and its ability to bomb systems when the environment is favorable. Mark my words!

My words were marked!!!

[KWT]

Very impressive increase in winds there upto 50kts...looks like recon backs it up...

[msbee]

Where is Derek Ortt? He used to be around to discuss the storms.

Picked up by a hedge fund as a private met possibly, which would certainly gag him from posting/sharing info. Just a guess.

edit* I actually just ran across this-

"Ladies and gentlemen. During the last 8 years, nwhhc.com has provided the only non-governmental verifiable tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts that were freely available on the internet from people that were in the field of meteorology. As of today, this service has been terminated. I, Derek Ortt, have accepted a position with another company as a hurricane forecaster on May 24, 2010. Therefore, it is no longer possible to continue nwhhc.com.

All of us at nwhhc.com would like to thank everyone for the support and for using the service during the previous 8 hurricane seasons. The site would not have lasted as long as it has without your support.

Thank you everyone!

Derek Ortt
nwhhc.com "

http://www.nwhhc.com/

That's too bad. I miss his forecasts

[bahamaswx]

If this were a minimal hurricane I expect it would be bombing right now. Seems to be a minimal level of structure needed before RI can occur though. Great environment, minus the land.

[KWT]

Probably is about 50kts rioght now, also interestingly recon seems to suggest they system is perhaps stronger on the southern side, thats certainly where the strongest convection is right now.

[HurricaneStriker]

Question: Could someone please tell me what 'bombing a tropical system' means? Thanks in advance.

[HURAKAN]

Question: Could someone please tell me what 'bombing a tropical system' means? Thanks in advance.

Intensifying very fast.

[HurricaneStriker]

Thanks

[Iune]

Question: is Alex the largest storm ever in the Atlantic Basin in recorded history?

I think Hurricane Ike of 2008 was larger, but by a slight difference. See for yourself.

Ike:


Alex:

Actually, Hurricane Greta of 1956 had gale-force (tropical storm strength) winds 1200 miles (1930 km) wide!

[HurricaneStriker]

Wow. If Hurricane Greta was that large, imagine the storm surge!

[KWT]

Alex is strengthening at a decent clip but right now its bombing really, bot no doubt it is strengthening under decent conditions. Extrap pressure from recon was 998mbs.

[Iune]

Wow. If Hurricane Greta was that large, imagine the storm surge!

Actually, the storm was in the mid-Atlantic.

[HurricaneStriker]

What's Invest 93L doing on the Active Tropical Systems and Invests Pic?

[HURAKAN]

190630 1714N 08731W 9246 00674 9984 +213 +213 294014 014 034 006 00

entering the center, 998 mb in 14 knots

[lrak]

Wow, this IS big. Allen covered the entire Gulf, I wonder if the land will kick it Northwards. I've seen it happen many times, it heads in low and emerges North of Campeche Mexico.

[HurricaneStriker]

Not sure if this is a Hurricane Hunter flight on going right now, but here you go:

[KWT]

lrak, I remember something like that happening Dolly in 2008, the system got scooped up northwards and reformed just before landfall....not likely to happen this time since we have a more established center but worth watching in case it jogs up the coast.

[lebron23]

Models continue to shift further south..

[HURAKAN]

190900 1720N 08726W 9248 00647 9952 +236 +226 096016 020 021 000 00

995 mb in 16 knots

[KWT]

Pressure down to 995.2mbs and had winds still at 16kts when that reading was made, so could be a little lower then that...looks like they made a good center punch that time.