ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[Ikester]

Okay, I have a question...

For a forecast with below average confidence, don't you think the NHC is being VERY confident issuing warnings nearly 48 hours in advance and watches up even earlier. There appears to be a shift to the north in the models and I can't understand why so much confidence is being put into a storm that is not behaving. Can anybody help me with this??????????

[tolakram]

Okay, I have a question...

For a forecast with below average confidence, don't you think the NHC is being VERY confident issuing warnings nearly 48 hours in advance and watches up even earlier. There appears to be a shift to the north in the models and I can't understand why so much confidence is being put into a storm that is not behaving. Can anybody help me with this??????????

It's in the rule book, basically. If the forecast call for landfall in 48 hours warnings are issues, right or wrong. It really works best that way, and if needed they will be shifted.

[Wx_Warrior]

[Ikester]

Okay, I have a question...

For a forecast with below average confidence, don't you think the NHC is being VERY confident issuing warnings nearly 48 hours in advance and watches up even earlier. There appears to be a shift to the north in the models and I can't understand why so much confidence is being put into a storm that is not behaving. Can anybody help me with this??????????

It's in the rule book, basically. If the forecast call for landfall in 48 hours warnings are issues, right or wrong. It really works best that way, and if needed they will be shifted.

You completely missed the point. The "rule" is a warning is issued 36 hours in advance. We're clearly outside that window. And for such a "low confidence forecast, issuing a warning now, seems to be rather confident.

[tolakram]

You completely missed the point. The "rule" is a warning is issued 36 hours in advance. We're clearly outside that window. And for such a "low confidence forecast, issuing a warning now, seems to be rather confident.

I'm so sorry I completely missed the point. :|

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/fo ... ings.shtml

I'm not going to bother looking further for you, but I suspect that they expect hurricane conditions in 36 hours. Watches are 48, I got that wrong.

[cycloneye]

You completely missed the point. The "rule" is a warning is issued 36 hours in advance. We're clearly outside that window. And for such a "low confidence forecast, issuing a warning now, seems to be rather confident.

I'm so sorry I completely missed the point. :|

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/fo ... ings.shtml

I'm not going to bother looking further for you, but I suspect that they expect hurricane conditions in 36 hours. Watches are 48, I got that wrong.

Alex is a large system.

[brunota2003]

Not only that...but with the potential for further strengthening than what the models say, you want to get as much lead time as possible so people prepare.

[clfenwi]

Okay, I have a question...

For a forecast with below average confidence, don't you think the NHC is being VERY confident issuing warnings nearly 48 hours in advance and watches up even earlier. There appears to be a shift to the north in the models and I can't understand why so much confidence is being put into a storm that is not behaving. Can anybody help me with this??????????

It's in the rule book, basically. If the forecast call for landfall in 48 hours warnings are issues, right or wrong. It really works best that way, and if needed they will be shifted.

You completely missed the point. The "rule" is a warning is issued 36 hours in advance. We're clearly outside that window. And for such a "low confidence forecast, issuing a warning now, seems to be rather confident.

Warnings are set 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds, in front of the hurricane conditions, not arrival of the hurricane itself.

[clfenwi]

Moving on....

... time to watch the 00Z dynamic models roll in. Will Alex' recent movement/drift north shift the model guidance? Will the enhancement of upper-air data cause any changes (hope it doesn't result in the spread widening!)? Will Rock get some sleep tonight or will he just have to see what the Euro does? All that and more coming up!

[ROCK]

Moving on....

... time to watch the 00Z dynamic models roll in. Will Alex' recent movement/drift north shift the model guidance? Will the enhancement of upper-air data cause any changes (hope it doesn't result in the spread widening!)? Will Rock get some sleep tonight or will he just have to see what the Euro does? All that and more coming up!

I have plane to Denver tomorrow at 9am....NOT staying up late tonight...

[Ikester]

Moving on....

... time to watch the 00Z dynamic models roll in. Will Alex' recent movement/drift north shift the model guidance? Will the enhancement of upper-air data cause any changes (hope it doesn't result in the spread widening!)? Will Rock get some sleep tonight or will he just have to see what the Euro does? All that and more coming up!

hahahaha, i think ROCK getting sleep tonight is as likely as Alex hitting Tampa. People who go to bed when we have this on our hands are NOT TRUE WEATHER JUNKIES, ROCK! (sounds like a dare, Harry!--dumb and dumber)

[Comanche]

Moving on....

... time to watch the 00Z dynamic models roll in. Will Alex' recent movement/drift north shift the model guidance? Will the enhancement of upper-air data cause any changes (hope it doesn't result in the spread widening!)? Will Rock get some sleep tonight or will he just have to see what the Euro does? All that and more coming up!

I have plane to Denver tomorrow at 9am....NOT staying up late tonight...

Evacuating already Rock? I guess we know where you lean with Alex.

[ROCK]

Moving on....

... time to watch the 00Z dynamic models roll in. Will Alex' recent movement/drift north shift the model guidance? Will the enhancement of upper-air data cause any changes (hope it doesn't result in the spread widening!)? Will Rock get some sleep tonight or will he just have to see what the Euro does? All that and more coming up!

hahahaha, i think ROCK getting sleep tonight is as likely as Alex hitting Tampa. People who go to bed when we have this on our hands are NOT TRUE WEATHER JUNKIES, ROCK! (sounds like a dare, Harry!--dumb and dumber)

I guess I could sleep on the plane....ugh....

[Ikester]

Moving on....

... time to watch the 00Z dynamic models roll in. Will Alex' recent movement/drift north shift the model guidance? Will the enhancement of upper-air data cause any changes (hope it doesn't result in the spread widening!)? Will Rock get some sleep tonight or will he just have to see what the Euro does? All that and more coming up!

hahahaha, i think ROCK getting sleep tonight is as likely as Alex hitting Tampa. People who go to bed when we have this on our hands are NOT TRUE WEATHER JUNKIES, ROCK! (sounds like a dare, Harry!--dumb and dumber)

I guess I could sleep on the plane....ugh....

Atta Boy!

[Ikester]

GFS is running. I'm really intrigued (as I have been EVERY SINGLE OTHER RUN). Will there be a shift? Will the more poleward motion prevail? Will the sampled data from the recon prove to be of consequence to the forecast models? (Bites nails)

[brunota2003]

I'm still sticking with my Galveston to Brownsville area that I said last night. I feel confident the models will shift to the north and come into agreement somewhere around there. It is a huge area, but with the lack of picking a place by the models, along with uncertainty of what they will do will tons of new data for the 00Z runs, will just keep it as is.

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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Ikester]

I'm still sticking with my Galveston to Brownsville area that I said last night. I feel confident the models will shift to the north and come into agreement somewhere around there. It is a huge area, but with the lack of picking a place by the models, along with uncertainty of what they will do will tons of new data for the 00Z runs, will just keep it as is.

-----
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm sorry, I'm just still amazed at the warning for such a low confidence forecast. I can't seem to move past it. Well, it'll be one hell of a victory for the NHC if they are right!

[HouTXmetro]

I'm still sticking with my Galveston to Brownsville area that I said last night. I feel confident the models will shift to the north and come into agreement somewhere around there. It is a huge area, but with the lack of picking a place by the models, along with uncertainty of what they will do will tons of new data for the 00Z runs, will just keep it as is.

-----
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm sorry, I'm just still amazed at the warning for such a low confidence forecast. I can't seem to move past it. Well, it'll be one hell of a victory for the NHC if they are right!

Despite staying in the cone I think the NHC was way wrong for Ike...they had him threatening Florida. That never materialized.

[brunota2003]

They've got to warn though...and like they said:

"GIVEN THE LATEST 36-HR FORECAST POINT AND THE EXTENT OF
TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE FORECAST...IT IS TIME TO UPGRADE
THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH TEXAS
AND NORTHEAST MEXICAN COASTS."

[rockyman]

GFS--NNE for 6 hours, then sharp left turn thru 18 hours, then stall thru 24...