ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[Wx_Warrior]

really don't know which one is better...1st storm...they usually run @ same time..para runs a little behind & every now and then it skips a run

[clfenwi]

00Z NOGAPS landfall point slightly to the south of the 12Z forecast.



As for the question on the parallel run vs the operational GFS... *seems* like the parallel is more stable, i.e. better run-run consistency, but as Wx_Warrior says, its not necesarily run every cycle, so that's a bit hard to judge.

[clfenwi]

00Z Canadian ever so slightly to the left of the 12Z. Looks like it also pushes Alex a bit to the southwest after going ashore.

[ROCK]

was waiting on the CMC.....night night....

[MWatkins]

Awww the GFS. I remember when it was called the AVN, or the Aviation Run of the Weather Forecasting Model. They used to use the aviation version of the model for hurricane forecasting...wow how the times have changed...

MW

[South Texas Storms]

i guess we can expect a landfall between brownsville and corpus IMO as the models seem to flip flop almost every run.

[Wx_Warrior]

LOL

[clfenwi]

00Z HWRF (finally) shifts south. Still the right outlier, so far, despite the shift.

[clfenwi]

00Z GFDL shifts way to the south

WHXX04 KWBC 290525
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM ALEX 01L

INITIAL TIME 0Z JUN 29

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 20.7 91.7 360./ 4.1
6 21.2 92.2 316./ 6.4
12 22.0 92.9 318./10.1
18 22.4 93.5 308./ 7.0
24 22.9 94.2 306./ 8.2
30 23.2 95.0 293./ 8.0
36 23.4 95.9 282./ 8.5
42 23.4 96.5 267./ 6.1
48 23.6 97.3 285./ 7.2
54 23.5 98.2 263./ 8.7
60 22.9 99.7 250./14.5
66 22.5 101.6 257./17.8
72 22.5 103.4 269./17.3
78 23.0 105.6 283./20.1
84 24.1 107.1 306./18.0
90 25.2 108.3 312./15.3
96 26.3 109.1 323./13.0
102 27.3 109.9 321./12.6
108 27.6 110.3 308./ 5.0
114 28.5 111.4 307./13.2
120 28.9 111.7 328./ 5.1

STORM DISSIPATED AT 120 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.



More southerly track may be because it doesn't really deepen the storm until right before landfall.

[Wx_Warrior]

Just about all are coming together now.

[South Texas Storms]

do you guys think the models will flip flop between a texas and mexico landfall until it nears the coast?

[Ntxwx]

do you guys think the models will flip flop between a texas and mexico landfall until it nears the coast?

IMO, yes

[xcool22]

models flip flop

[americanre1]

I still don't think any of the models will have a good idea of what is going to happen past 24 hours until they see how strong the ridge builds back in and what these highs over the Continental US does. If these highs decide to take a more Easterly track and the ridge doesn't build in as strong as expected. I really could see the intensifying Alex go almost due North for the foreseeable future. I wouldn't be surprised to see another Audrey path with same intensity. I know I am -removed- here, don't shoot me. The local met here said that nothing will be known for the next 48 hours or so on what Alex is going to do, so it will be another wait and see for this storm for the next couple days.

On a side note, with this increase in Northerly speed, wouldn't that pretty through out all the models anyway????

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[South Texas Storms]

ntxwx, where do you think alex will hit?

[Ntxwx]

On a side note, with this increase in Northerly speed, wouldn't that pretty through out all the models anyway????

Yeah kinda.

[Nederlander]

I still don't think any of the models will have a good idea of what is going to happen past 24 hours until they see how strong the ridge builds back in and what these highs over the Continental US does. If these highs decide to take a more Easterly track and the ridge doesn't build in as strong as expected. I really could see the intensifying Alex go almost due North for the foreseeable future. I wouldn't be surprised to see another Audrey path with same intensity. I know I am -removed- here, don't shoot me. The local met here said that nothing will be known for the next 48 hours or so on what Alex is going to do, so it will be another wait and see for this storm for the next couple days.

On a side note, with this increase in Northerly speed, wouldn't that pretty through out all the models anyway????

I think we are getting close enough to landfall now that the models are in pretty good agreement.. this is a TX/MX border storm.. with a ridge to the north and to the east, Alex isnt going to continue to drift north.. he's picking up speed and hes about to start curving to the NW I believe.. Flooding is my biggest concern for the Valley at this point..

EDIT: Just because he is picking up speed doesnt mean throw the models out.. steering currents are starting to rev up..

[Ntxwx]

ntxwx, where do you think alex will hit?

Well, with the model guidance trending back south, and Alex persisting NNW at the current time,(????) Im leaning towards 100 miles on either side of Brownsville. Was looking at Corpus Christi earlier, but; models may be on to something...

[Wx_Warrior]

Making mountain out of molehills....g4 data is now being put into models....If this hit somewhere beside Tx/Mx, it would be bigger than Douglas beating Tyson.

[South Texas Storms]

nederlander do you think we will have flooding concerns here in san antonio?