ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[ROCK]

Dvorak already for Invest 98L

31/0000 UTC 10.0N 26.5W T1.0/1.0 INVEST

already!!....just amazing...maybe the ECM will pick up on it in a few hours....

[Weatherfreak000]

If we can hit the G storm tomorrow, which is looking more and more like a good possibility, those hyperactive season forecasts just may be verifying...

[StormGuy]

If we can hit the G storm tomorrow, which is looking more and more like a good possibility, those hyperactive season forecasts just may be verifying...

We got off to a bit of a late start but we're catching up now. And we still have the peak of the season ahead of us right?

[Weatherfreak000]

If we can hit the G storm tomorrow, which is looking more and more like a good possibility, those hyperactive season forecasts just may be verifying...

We got off to a bit of a late start but we're catching up now. And we still have the peak of the season ahead of us right?

Hyperactivity is also about ACE, Danielle, Earl, Fiona and now Gaston threaten to be hurricanes. That's just insane.

[Brent]

NHC not enthused:

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...HAS
FORMED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[fci]

If we can hit the G storm tomorrow, which is looking more and more like a good possibility, those hyperactive season forecasts just may be verifying...

This one is probably at least a couple of days from bring the "G" storm.
I did see it on the map when TV Met was reviewing D,E and F and was wondering when it would be 98.

[bob rulz]

I'm surprised that they only went with 10%. I would've guessed at least 20% given the presentation. Model support makes a huge difference.

[WeatherGuesser]

Model support makes a huge difference.

Early models totally screwed up with Fiona, so they may be holding back some.

[WeatherGuesser]

To my untrained eye, 98 looks 'better' than Fiona.

[ColinDelia]

Here's the latest vorticity. Rather elongated and nothing over "50 units" - which is the hallmark of a developing storm.



Dry air


Weak CAPE and forecast to stay weak at least the next 48 hours


Pretty sure the ocean heat content isn't very high here either.

Not much in the way of model support though the GFS does start to spin it up around 144 hours before winding it back down.

Seems like it will be slow to develop. But then again, it's 2010 (Completely different meaning than just 3 weeks ago, huh?)

On the bullish side, SHIPS takes it to 51 knots and LGE to 44 knots in 48 hours.

[abajan]

. . . When's the last time we had 4 at once in the Atlantic?

Just two years ago.

[ColinDelia]

8 am TWO. 10%.

[HURAKAN]

264
ABNT20 KNHC 311156
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 190 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO
RICO...AND ON TROPICAL STORM FIONA...LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON FIONA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON FIONA ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT3.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[HURAKAN]

72 hrs TPC ... hinting at possible recurver (yes, recurver, some people don't seem to like fish!!) lol

bottomline, too early to tell

[HURAKAN]

12z

AL, 98, 2010083112, , BEST, 0, 110N, 295W, 25, 1009, DB

[TheBurn]

[Vortex]

certainly taking on the "look" on visible....

[KWT]

It does have the look but I think it probably won't develop at least not till possibly down the line. Could develop but overall odds aren't as high as they've been with the other 3 CV systems.

[CrazyC83]

2010 = the year of shocking surprises. Every time we write off a system as dead, it develops or bombs out. If we get bullish, it fades away.

[KWT]

Yeah Crazy, though at least now things have gotten back to the way you'd expect, classic La Nina year now with the long tracking systems getting close to the E.coast.

I'd imagine alot depends on how strong/weak this one remains, don't see much that tells me this is going to become much though at the moment, but then again its moving steadily westwards and staying out of the EArl/Fiona fight that is about to occur so who knows!