ATL: IGOR - Models

[Ivanhater]

Bams look more reasonable this run. The deep Bam will probably be the best in this case, given the global model support.

[cycloneye]

Bams look more reasonable this run. The deep Bam will probably be the best in this case, given the global model support.

The deep bam is this one?

BAMM 15.3N 31.9W 15.5N 38.0W 15.5N 43.2W 15.8N 46.7W

[hcane27]

The Deep BAM is the BAMD

AL, 91, 2010090800, 03, BAMD, 12, 147N, 239W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2010090800, 03, BAMD, 24, 151N, 267W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2010090800, 03, BAMD, 36, 155N, 297W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2010090800, 03, BAMD, 48, 158N, 328W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2010090800, 03, BAMD, 60, 161N, 361W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2010090800, 03, BAMD, 72, 161N, 391W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2010090800, 03, BAMD, 84, 160N, 422W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2010090800, 03, BAMD, 96, 159N, 451W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2010090800, 03, BAMD, 108, 156N, 476W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2010090800, 03, BAMD, 120, 152N, 496W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2010090800, 03, BAMD, 132, 150N, 510W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2010090800, 03, BAMD, 144, 152N, 517W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2010090800, 03, BAMD, 156, 160N, 518W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2010090800, 03, BAMD, 168, 176N, 516W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[gatorcane]

I'm surprised nobody has mentioned what the 12z ecmwf is showing. Looks like a very strong hurricane near the ne leewards at 240 hours.

[Ivanhater]

I'm surprised nobody has mentioned what the 12z ecmwf is showing. Looks like a very strong hurricane near the ne leewards at 240 hours.

We did in the old thread. This was designated 91L afterward though.

[Ptarmigan]

Cycloneye, where can I get the Invest information from NHC?

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye, where can I get the Invest information from NHC?

The model updates are here. http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical/guidance/

The graphics of the models are here. http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... plots.html

The ATCF site for Best Track is here. ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[Wx_Warrior]

[Wx_Warrior]

[Wx_Warrior]

Yikes

[Ivanhater]

Monster Igor is trapped under the ridge

[Vortex]

If that pans out look out......

[KWT]

There is some weak ridging in terms of heights but its still not that impressive despite what the surface pressure suggests...and indeed there is still some weak troughing aloft just on the east coast of the US looking at the hights...hence why 91L keeps moving NW instead of bending W as it would do if there was a stronger upper high aloft...its similar though to what we saw with Earl...

[AlabamaDave]

OK, Igor is my favorite hurricane name EVER. I hope it becomes a monstrous Category 5 that wanders around at sea.

[ColinDelia]

it's my favorite name too, Dave. probably too for a lotta people

[BensonTCwatcher]

It will be interesting to see if the GFS, CMC or ECMWF will win out. The key feature looks to be the low and how it develops over the great lakes. All have a little different take on the timing and position over the Canadian maritimes and how it affects the ridging. I can see 2 very plausible solutions. 1. the ridge is held up and the low moves SW from the Great lakes. (GFS) 2. The low advances ore to the east and weakens the ridge more (CMC) This system could easily get the door shut on it and threaten the islands or the CONUS.

[alan1961]

A touch further south and west at the end of the gfs
run and has company with julia

[KWT]

Regardless of track the models are all keen on this becoming quite a powerful hurricane, and if it does become strong its going to be very unlikely it avoids the weakness out at 60W...

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models

Moving westsouthwest.

Code: Select all

977
WHXX01 KWBC 081237
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1237 UTC WED SEP 8 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912010) 20100908 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100908  1200   100909  0000   100909  1200   100910  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.7N  23.3W   13.6N  24.8W   13.4N  26.5W   13.6N  28.3W
BAMD    13.7N  23.3W   13.8N  25.8W   13.7N  28.4W   13.7N  30.9W
BAMM    13.7N  23.3W   13.8N  25.0W   14.0N  26.9W   14.5N  28.8W
LBAR    13.7N  23.3W   14.0N  25.1W   14.5N  27.7W   15.3N  30.6W
SHIP        30KTS          35KTS          39KTS          44KTS
DSHP        30KTS          35KTS          39KTS          44KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100910  1200   100911  1200   100912  1200   100913  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.5N  30.0W   17.7N  33.7W   20.4N  38.4W   22.7N  44.0W
BAMD    13.8N  33.2W   14.2N  37.5W   15.5N  41.2W   17.1N  43.4W
BAMM    15.4N  30.8W   17.4N  35.8W   19.0N  41.2W   19.5N  46.0W
LBAR    16.2N  33.9W   17.5N  40.4W   17.6N  45.5W   18.2N  45.9W
SHIP        52KTS          64KTS          68KTS          71KTS
DSHP        52KTS          64KTS          68KTS          71KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.7N LONCUR =  23.3W DIRCUR = 260DEG SPDCUR =   7KT
LATM12 =  14.0N LONM12 =  21.9W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =   8KT
LATM24 =  13.7N LONM24 =  20.1W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   70NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$


[KWT]

By the way I'm surprised no one has mentioned about the long range GFS which bends the system a little bit back to the WSW by 300hrs...