ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[KWT]

It doesn't look too bad right now to be honest, probably worthy of a 30% but clearly what is going to grab the attention is going to be the threat down the line...personally I think its unlikely this one goes east of say Florida and a track up through Florida into the Atlantic ocean IMO at this early stage is more likely but frankly at this time of year the models struggle with the transition into winter further north...

[Sanibel]

Maybe this one will break the straight west pattern and hook up into the Gulf.

[Vortmax1]

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
613 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010


ON THE LONG RANGE...THE EWP AND CFS MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON
FAVORABLE MJO CONDITIONS TO WEAKEN BY THE END OF THE MONTH. THE
GFS IS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC...SHOWING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
PERSISTING... IF NOT INTENSIFYING...BY THE BEGINNING OF OCTOBER.
BUT CURRENT TREND DOES NOT SUPPORT THIS...AS THE OBSERVED PATTERN
HAVE BEEN RANGING BETWEEN 10-15 DAYS BETWEEN PERIODS OF
FAVORABLE/UNFAVORABLE MJO CONDITIONS. IF THE PATTERN HOLDS...THE
EWP/CFS HAVE BETTER ODDS OF VERIFYING THAN THE GFS.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Future Matthew definitely has my attention. Of course, our dock is being repaired right now, so my boat is casually clinging to the "visiting dock". If a storm approaches in a week, who knows where I can tie it down. Then again, if Matt shows up on our beach at the strength some of the models are indicating, I suppose I won't be that worried about the boat after all. I don't like the setup down the road of an approaching front/trough. Best case for us would be a stronger front that skirts the storm to the NE well south of Tampa Bay, aka Charlie. However, as large as this storm is shaping up, we would want it to cross the state much further south to have the least impact on us.
That said, I wouldn't want to wish a bad storm on anyone.
Something tells me that Matt will get retired this year. Someone isn't going to have a fun time with this one. This could have a bad hit on CA and a second bad hit on the northern to eastern gulf.
Best case scenario would be a storm that can't get its act together that just drifts west into CA without ever getting going.

[cycloneye]

I am not saying it will be the same, but is a coincidence that the replacement name (Matthew) is for one of the most powerful hurricanes on history in the Western Caribbean (Mitch 1998).

[bvigal]

If climatology is so important, how come we ignore the Clipper model? There is always a first time for a new track, etc. Remember Mitch? It went south into Honduras when every single storm before that had gone N or NW.

[HurricaneBelle]

I am not saying it will be the same, but is a coincidence that the replacement name (Matthew) is for one of the most powerful hurricanes on history in the Western Caribbean (Mitch 1998).

Not only that, the last storm with a name ending in "ew" didn't treat Florida very well.

[bvigal]

Hola, Luis! We are in tune!!

[thetruesms]

Yes, that's correct. Cyclones that have already formed tend to intensify in this area. I think it's more statistical than anything else ... very few cyclones form in this area.

It appears to be related to an increased low level jet across the Caribbean enhancing low level divergence. However, the influence of that factor tends to decrease as the season goes on.

[bohaiboy]

Our private met here in Houston indicates winds of 20-30 with gusts to 50-60 in thunderstorms. They also mention a strong trough should pick up the expected hurricane just east of the Yucatan and steer it N-NE in to central or NE GOM. The local forecasts also reflects cooler weather arriving H-Town this weekend also, so a front definitely on the way.

[hurricaneCW]

I am not saying it will be the same, but is a coincidence that the replacement name (Matthew) is for one of the most powerful hurricanes on history in the Western Caribbean (Mitch 1998).

Not only that, the last storm with a name ending in "ew" didn't treat Florida very well.

What was the "ew" storm that didn't treat Florida well?

Never mind, I just got it.

[boca]

THE MOIST AIR MASS IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO DRY OUT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY OF THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTH WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF TO HELP INCREASE THE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE COOLER AND DRIER ONCE AGAIN.

That was out of the NWS in Houston/Galveston regarding that cool front.

[SFLcane]

Quote from masters blog this morning...http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1627

Equally likely scenarios are that 95L will stay in the Western Caribbean, or that the storm will make landfall over Nicaragua and dissipate on Friday, and never reach the Western Caribbean. It is too early to assign probabilities on which of these three scenarios is the most likely.

[ConvergenceZone]

Equally likely scenarios are that 95L will stay in the Western Caribbean, or that the storm will make landfall over Nicaragua and dissipate on Friday, and never reach the Western Caribbean. It is too early to assign probabilities on which of these three scenarios is the most likely.[/b]

You forgot to include the other part of what Jeff Masters said, which is:

"With a strong trough of low pressure expected to dive southwards over the Eastern U.S. and form a "cut-off" upper level low over the Southeast U.S. this weekend, this potential hurricane could get drawn northwards across western Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico. "

[Cyclone1]

I am not saying it will be the same, but is a coincidence that the replacement name (Matthew) is for one of the most powerful hurricanes on history in the Western Caribbean (Mitch 1998).

Not only that, the last storm with a name ending in "ew" didn't treat Florida very well.

You mean Tropical Storm Matthew in 2004? That didn't even make landfall in Florida.

:P

[wxman57]

Quote from masters blog this morning...http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1627

Equally likely scenarios are that 95L will stay in the Western Caribbean, or that the storm will make landfall over Nicaragua and dissipate on Friday, and never reach the Western Caribbean. It is too early to assign probabilities on which of these three scenarios is the most likely.

Part of his uncertainty may be due to the recent problems with the GFS runs being almost exactly opposite of the Euro, Canadian and NOGAPS as far as the projected east coast trof late this coming weekend. Before the past run or two, the GFS had a massive ridge where all the other models had a deep trof. Because of this, the GFS kept the storm south over the Yucatan or over CA. I don't think that's likely to happen.

[caneseddy]

Quote from masters blog this morning...http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1627

Equally likely scenarios are that 95L will stay in the Western Caribbean, or that the storm will make landfall over Nicaragua and dissipate on Friday, and never reach the Western Caribbean. It is too early to assign probabilities on which of these three scenarios is the most likely.

Part of his uncertainty may be due to the recent problems with the GFS runs being almost exactly opposite of the Euro, Canadian and NOGAPS as far as the projected east coast trof late this coming weekend. Before the past run or two, the GFS had a massive ridge where all the other models had a deep trof. Because of this, the GFS kept the storm south over the Yucatan or over CA. I don't think that's likely to happen.

Now that you are here...the question everybody wants to ask you is: Where do you think 95L/future Matthew is going to end up and how strong?

[Category 5]

I am not saying it will be the same, but is a coincidence that the replacement name (Matthew) is for one of the most powerful hurricanes on history in the Western Caribbean (Mitch 1998).

Not only that, the last storm with a name ending in "ew" didn't treat Florida very well.

Matthew in 2004, was so unkind to florida, it decided not to ravage an already beaten down state, what a jerk.

[Aquawind]

Thanks CZ!

wxman57 are you thinking it get's lifted more north as well then? Are you still open for a Western GOM threat than or a stall then turn? You can be a vague as you want..lol We know it's early and won't point fingers..well I won't!

[CDO62]

Floater is now active on 95L

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-vis.html