ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[KWT]

I think the GFDL track is going to be close to the mark, I've been thinking the system will brush Yucatan, that may in fact help to tighten up the system and get it going, we saw that happen with Dolly in 08.

[thetruesms]

its so weird to see that Luis ...since there is nothing out there...We know the area is primed but 93L is still having a hard time organizing....

Welcome to the graveyard

[cycloneye]

its so weird to see that Luis ...since there is nothing out there...We know the area is primed but 93L is still having a hard time organizing....

Wait until it goes away from the influence of South America.

[Aquawind]

its so weird to see that Luis ...since there is nothing out there...We know the area is primed but 93L is still having a hard time organizing....

Welcome to the graveyard

Living up to it's name alright..defying reality to many..lol Thanks for the model clarification.

[CourierPR]

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/s ... urrica.asp

Check this out. Very interesting reading.

[eastcoastFL]

Thats very interesting but those guys at accuweather love to hype things up.

[CourierPR]

Thats very interesting but those guys at accuweather love to hype things up.

I posted this partly in response to a post yesterday which stated basically that there were no models forecasting any development in the near future.

[wxman22]

Euro shows a tropical storm headed towards the Upper texas Coast then all of sudden ridge builds in and pushes it towards South texas...

[Ivanhater]

12z NAM is still kind of pretty

[Aquawind]

Persistant and Pretty NAM.. Looks like a hint of the Bahama talk to the far right.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I don't like that the models that do carry this feature all seem to slow it down to a crawl late in the forecast period. Anything moving 6 kts or less in the Gulf is almost completely unpredictable. Storms will loop, make right angle turns, and otherwise defy all reasoning when in the gulf and moving slow. I predict a lot of gnashing of teeth and pulling hair if this moves off the tip of the Yucatan and is only moving at a few knots. The models will be all over the place. Building ridge, or approaching/lifting front...which will win? Will the shear get it, or the increased upwelling due to near stationary movement. I am geting a sense that this will be an interesting first storm with lots of discussion and a very fearful public on the impact it will have on the oil spill and recovery/drilling efforts. -let alone the winds driving the spill to move ashore.

note: if a storm approaches, they won't be able to pump the dispersant at the flow, nor capture anything. It will be free flowing for days with full 100% undispersed oil. That will be a HUGE mess and provide a volume of pure crude that we haven't yet seen with this spill.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

...and if the storm is moving ultra slow and meandering around, nobody can be on the drill sites or recovery ships until it either dissipates or goes ashore. -whihc could be many days.

[floridasun78]

untill we have center model wont be able tell us were it going we need wait untill we have good center to track

[clfenwi]

its so weird to see that Luis ...since there is nothing out there...We know the area is primed but 93L is still having a hard time organizing....

One of the key things to remember about SHIPS is that assumes there is something out there. It isn't providing an answer to the question "Will this unorganized mass of thunderstorms form a surface circulation?" Instead it answers "Assuming there is an organized surface circulation, will it intensify and how?"

[Dean4Storms]

Is it me or do the models seem to be splitting in developing something in the SW carib or at the southern extent of our current wave where the Canadian develops both the southern extent as well as this current MLC headed toward eastern Cuba?

[Wx_Warrior]

12z GFS loses over the Yuca & sends west into Mexico....

96h

[Ivanhater]

Well 12z does have some reflection in the Gulf

[KWT]

Yeah thats certainly a stronger signal than most of the previous GFS runs have had, not as strong as the ECM but it does create a weak depression this time.

[srainhoutx]

Interesting to see the GFS finally coming onboard burying a weak surface reflection in the BoC.

[Ivanhater]

Seems to split the energy somewhat, part on the BOC, part in the central gulf. No clarity here