ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Chacor]

We've had a number of 100%s. Generally that pretty much guarantees advisories being initiated at the next advisory (or immediately within an hour as we had in one case this year).

[KWT]

Looks like another true CV system, seems like the E.Atlantic is very favourable at the moment...

Another long tracker but seems pretty likely to curve out to sea based on the weakness left by Danielle and the general upper troughing pattern in the W.Atlantic still....

[Vortex]

and it looks like fiona will follow in earls footsteps...

[Chacor]

Aug 25 2010 12:24 invest_RENUMBER_al962010_al072010.ren

[KWT]

There we go we have our next tropical system, fully expect this one to eventually become hurricane Earl down the line.

[TheBurn]

[Blown Away]

From Jeff Master's:

Forecast for 96L/Tropical Depression Seven
Wind shear is predicted to remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next four days. SSTs will cool a bit to 27°C by Thursday, but this is still above the 26.5°C threshold for hurricane development. Dry air will probably be the main inhibiting factor for 96L. Most of the intensity forecast models bring 96L to hurricane strength by four days from now, and this is a reasonable forecast. 96L should become Tropical Storm Earl later today or on Wednesday, and will probably bring sustained winds of 40 mph to the southernmost Cape Verdes Islands tonight and Wednesday.

The long range fate of 96L remains unclear. The storm is being steering by the same ridge of high pressure steering Danielle, and will initially follow a track similar to Danielle. 96L may encounter the cold waters stirred up by Danielle at times this week, inhibiting development. As 96L approaches the central Atlantic five days from now, the storm will encounter the same mid-Atlantic trough that will be steering Danielle, and 96L should turn more to the northwest. It is unclear at this point whether this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve 96L out to sea, east of Bermuda. This will, in part, depend upon how strong Danielle gets. A stronger Danielle is likely to create more of a break in the ridge of high pressure steering 96L, encouraging the storm to turn north and recurve out to sea. A weaker Danielle will make 96L more likely to miss recurvature, and follow a track to the west or west-northwest towards the U.S. East Coast early next week. History suggests that a storm in 96L's current location has only a 20% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast.

Not sure what the cut off is between a stronger/weaker Danielle?

[cyclonic chronic]

i put the center at 14.9N, 30.5W. looks to be a nice convective burst starting round the center. hello earl. wave train in high gear.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg

oops. 13.9N

[senorpepr]

AL, 07, 2010082512, , BEST, 0, 142N, 303W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SEVEN, M,

[Fego]

Already 07L in the Navy page.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bi ... 98W.INVEST,

[tolakram]

It's not official until it appears on the NHC page. We've had at least one renumber followed by a complete collapse and a renumber back to an invest prior to NHC posting.

[supercane]

SSMIS from earlier today much improved with area of consolidated convection and slight banding:

[KWT]

Well now its offical, we have TD7!

[HURAKAN]

Advisory #2 ??? ... I guessed I either missed #1 or they screwed up!!!

First time I see that.

[Evil Jeremy]

Advisory #2 ??? ... I guessed I either missed #1 or they screwed up!!!

First time I see that.

What is more interesting is that the Forecast Advisory is labeled #1, and the others are #2.

First cone has TD7 cross 20N around 55W, which is a little farther west than the latest model runs. Also, the cone doesn't hook as far north as the models at the end.

[thetruesms]

Advisory #2 ??? ... I guessed I either missed #1 or they screwed up!!!

First time I see that.

What is more interesting is that the Forecast Advisory is labeled #1, and the others are #2.

The Forecast/Advisory has already been corrected - it originally came out as #2 as well. Not a great start Hopefully not an omen

[KWT]

We may well be lucky to have Danielle re-opening up a large weakness for this one to move into...

That forecast track sure does suggest a threat to at least Bermuda again, would probably curve up quite sharply after that point...

[Brent]

[supercane]

Recent ASCAT pass shows center still a bit broad, but much better defined than yesterday:

[HURAKAN]

Earl should be here later today