ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Why Igor not yet on Goes floater???

HUC - goes range for floaters is at about 30W, see http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/vis-l.jpg

Is moving so slow that it may be tommorow when the floater is up.

[tolakram]

Jumpy loop from the NRL GIF loop creator.

[canes101]

HUC, Igor is JUST ABOUT in range of the floater.. They may put it up tonight

[KWT]

Looks like Igor is moving northwards right over the Islands right now, will be interesting to see the wind profile soon...

[HUC]

Thank's friends,i got it.

[SootyTern]

The models are still very keen to make this a hurricane as well so I've got no reason to believe this one won't make it past the relativly less condusive set-up aloft right now.

Sounds a lot like Gaston.

I thought Gaston didn't have any model support until he popped up, and the dynamic models didn't do much with him anyways.

[OuterBanker]

Mets correct me on this if I’m wrong. But to me it seems that Igor is a classic example of the Fujiwara effect. Igor appeared to be pulled north (hence the north movement) toward the other area that was highlighted yesterday by the TPC. In other words they combined into one system. Steering once the combination fully completes should push Igor west.
Ps I think that Igor should be a fish or at least not threaten the Outer Banks for a couple reasons. 1- We have already had our turn. 2 – Had my transfer switch installed yesterday and connected the generator to determine that is fully functional.

[dwsqos2]

Oh, this is miles from Gaston. For one Igor's low-level circulation is far better defined than Gaston's could ever have hoped to be.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=13001

This is a time-sensitive link, but even now 13001 is reporting SSW winds of 17.1 knots, and Igor is a pretty respectable distance from it.

Oh, and the globals spit out a bunch of closed isobars in the short term.

I will say, as a complete guess, that the nhc is probably going to be too high with intensity in the 0-72 or even 96 hour range, and probably too low thereafter. Although I hate even mentioning SSTs, Igor will be passing over a rather marginally conducive ocean, this will be another limiting factor for development. Toss in some easterly shear in the short term, and yeah intensification could be delayed.

This is unofficial and all that.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Wthrman13]

Mets correct me on this if I’m wrong. But to me it seems that Igor is a classic example of the Fujiwara effect. Igor appeared to be pulled north (hence the north movement) toward the other area that was highlighted yesterday by the TPC. In other words they combined into one system. Steering once the combination fully completes should push Igor west.
Ps I think that Igor should be a fish or at least not threaten the Outer Banks for a couple reasons. 1- We have already had our turn. 2 – Had my transfer switch installed yesterday and connected the generator to determine that is fully functional.

I don't think the Fujiwhara effect was responsible for that interaction. The effect causes vortices to rotate around each other due to mutual advection of each other's wind field. In the case of counterclockwise-rotating (cyclonic in the NH) vortices, they would rotate around each other, also counterclockwise, and slowly. This means that Igor should have been pulled east as it rotated around the other low to it's NE. It depends on where the other low ended up in relation to Igor before it dissipated/was absorbed. If it made it to the NW side of Igor, then I can see a north movement due to the Fujiwhara effect.

Otherwise, some other detail of the interaction was likely the cause of the short-term NNW movement. Without more information, and I confess I wasn't looking at it too closely, it's hard to say.

[MGC]

Igor looks to be a TD to me....Igor should ramp up quickly once the shear lets up.......MGC

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 11, 2010090918, , BEST, 0, 156N, 256W, 35, 1005, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Remains as a tropical Storm.

[hurricaneCW]

It's already past 15N, perhaps the the subtropical high could push it back further south, but that's a huge sign of a recurving system if it's north of 15, east of 40W.

[dwsqos2]

Well, the Euro is certainly robust. If another meteorologist on another site is correct the 12Z hour 192 pressure prog (905 mb) would be the most intense hurricane ever modeled by the Euro. Of course it tried to do the same to Fiona, so let us see if the squirrel has found its nut.

[hurricaneCW]

It's a very strange la nina so far, for a la nina at this strength I would expect a strong SE ridge, not a broad Western Atlantic trough pattern. I guess that means that by winter, the SE ridge will return and completely bake us.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

Downgraded to TD.

LOCATION...16.0N 26.4W
ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[TheBurn]

[Migle]

18z Best Track

AL, 11, 2010090918, , BEST, 0, 156N, 256W, 35, 1005, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Remains as a tropical Storm.

So BT fails again. This just happened the other day when it had TD-11E as a TS

[ConvergenceZone]

Is this going to be another Gaston where we get upgrades, then downgrades, then upgrades?