ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[KWT]

Yeah I'd have personally gone with 60kts because the presentation has actually improved since recon went in there.

It does look like its slowed down a little though not sure whether thats the function of it wrapping up?

[americanre1]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Isn't it when you see a blow up on an outer band that that sometimes shows you were the center will be going? If so that blow up on the Northern side of the Yucatan Peninsula tells me that Alex will be going to North at lot more. Also there is so much in flow to this system there is so many different influences to this storm, I really don't know if we will be able to tell anything until Monday evening at the earliest.

[Ivanhater]

Trough still digging

[americanre1]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I am not sure but I think I could see the center jumping across the Yucatan anytime.

[HurricaneStriker]

I have to disagree with the NHC. It has to be 70 mph or more if a few hours ago RECON found a rapidly intensifying system. Also, the pressure was 996 mb and dropping. I wouldn't expect the pressure to have remained at 996 mb until now. But they're the authority.

I agree HURAKAN. We sure need a Dvorak estimate on this storm. Alex may also have been a hurricane with the rapidly intensifying system statement. BTW, I believe the Belize radar confirms a landfall since the image is pretty old and shows Alex within 15 km of landfall.

[KWT]

Ivanhater, that trough is stil ldigging indeed, that being said no response at all from Alex, still looks like its on a 280 track at the moment. Still I think it does give confidence that it will lift out at least a little in the next 24hrs. That big convective burst may have the effect of tugging the LLC NW once it heads inland if its still there.

I think a hurricane is really possible in the BoC/GoM regardless, these upper conditions look condusive for a 70-80kts type system, of course if it goes north possibly even more...

[Cape Verde]

If nothing else (and it's far more than nothing to Belize at the moment), Alex has demonstrated once again how quickly a tropical system can develop. From a patch of thunderstorm to an impressive system like this within a few days.

There was none of that "will it be a fish?", eastern seaboard, Gulf, "cone of uncertainty" stuff.

We are very fortunate that doesn't look like it will affect the containment/relief efforts off of the Louisiana coast. We probably won't be that lucky all season long.

It seems to me that tropical systems are as unique as fingerprints or snowflakes. Each one we observe comes with a healthy degree of uncertainty.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Dean4Storms]

It looks to me on high resolution imagery that it has turned ever so slightly more toward the WNW, have to give it some more time to be sure.

[KWT]

That really is impressive Hurakan, note the way the convection is wrapping into the core. I suspect it is a good 60kts and may well be getting gusts into the hurricane force as it comes ashore, because it is a strengthening system.

[cycloneye]

For Alex to emerge fully not barely into the BOC it has to reach 19N and above.

[Ivanhater]

I would suggest following the upper levels with this water vapor link. Trough still digging strong

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/w ... us&type=wv

[KWT]

It looks to me on high resolution imagery that it has turned ever so slightly more toward the WNW, have to give it some more time to be sure.

Yeah I've just had a look at the longer loop and it sure does look like it to me, looks to be about 285-290 looking at the loop over the last 90 mins.

[rockyman]

I would suggest following the upper levels with this water vapor link. Trough still digging strong

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/w ... us&type=wv

Hey...on this loop, there appears to be an upper level circulation near the Texas coast...was this expected?

[cycloneye]

If my eyes dont pull tricks on me,I see a slight NW jog at the end.

[cwachal]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 JUN 2010 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 17:22:12 N Lon : 88:09:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 989.1mb/ 65.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.0 4.0 4.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.1mb

Center Temp : -64.2C Cloud Region Temp : -70.0C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************


Hurricane???

[KWT]

Hmmm 4.0...the NHC maybe tempted given the system is really wrapping up well, the presentation has improved markedly in the last 6hrs!

[cwachal]

they may go 70 mph but they will not go to hurricane before landfall... possibly in post season

[HURAKAN]

Alex's exterior bands affecting western Cuba

[KWT]

they may go 70 mph but they will not go to hurricane before landfall... possibly in post season

Yeah I suspect they will go for 60kts but it is quite tight, the presentation is now becoming quite impressive, good job it doesn't have longer out to sea to be honest.