ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[Wx_Warrior]

[Wx_Warrior]

[Nederlander]

I cant hold back anymore... I think a lot of the euro-huggers are shouting WIN WIN just to piss the rest of us off that get irritated with euro worshipping.. As one pro-met posted many pages ago, dont just look at landfall location for the scorecard. The fact is, none of the models won this one.. the euro never saw the trough breaking down the ridge.. how can you call that a win? Alex helped out the euro by stalling out (euro didn't call for that either)... it was all about timing.. the euro may be closest as far as location, but only because Alex stalled when the ridge eroded and allowed it to build back in.. If Alex doesn't stall, then the euro would be an epic fail and we would most likely be evacuating the deepwater horizon site.. I'm not a euro hater, and i do like it in some situations, but I don't give credit where credit isnt due. my own advice is to not depend so much on one particular model.. different setups favor certain models.. I patiently await the day where the euro just completely blows it.. ok done..

[srainhoutx]

Heavy flooding rainfall is becoming a concern. Latest WRF 12Z data suggests whom ever is under a feeder band from LA to TX could see significant rainfall rates.

[Wx_Warrior]

agreed srain....lots of tropical stuff

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I cant hold back anymore... I think a lot of the euro-huggers are shouting WIN WIN just to piss the rest of us off that get irritated with euro worshipping.. As one pro-met posted many pages ago, dont just look at landfall location for the scorecard. The fact is, none of the models won this one.. the euro never saw the trough breaking down the ridge.. how can you call that a win? Alex helped out the euro by stalling out (euro didn't call for that either)... it was all about timing.. the euro may be closest as far as location, but only because Alex stalled when the ridge eroded and allowed it to build back in.. If Alex doesn't stall, then the euro would be an epic fail and we would most likely be evacuating the deepwater horizon site.. I'm not a euro hater, and i do like it in some situations, but I don't give credit where credit isnt due. my own advice is to not depend so much on one particular model.. different setups favor certain models.. I patiently await the day where the euro just completely blows it.. ok done..

[Ivanhater]

I cant hold back anymore... I think a lot of the euro-huggers are shouting WIN WIN just to piss the rest of us off that get irritated with euro worshipping.. As one pro-met posted many pages ago, dont just look at landfall location for the scorecard. The fact is, none of the models won this one.. the euro never saw the trough breaking down the ridge.. how can you call that a win? Alex helped out the euro by stalling out (euro didn't call for that either)... it was all about timing.. the euro may be closest as far as location, but only because Alex stalled when the ridge eroded and allowed it to build back in.. If Alex doesn't stall, then the euro would be an epic fail and we would most likely be evacuating the deepwater horizon site.. I'm not a euro hater, and i do like it in some situations, but I don't give credit where credit isnt due. my own advice is to not depend so much on one particular model.. different setups favor certain models.. I patiently await the day where the euro just completely blows it.. ok done..

Agree 100 percent. It has been said over and over the euro missed to huge weakness that developed and got lucky with the stall, it would have been a huge fail...but hey if some don't want to take the time and educate themselves about the meteorological works at play and just want to see where the X lands, that's on them

[South Texas Storms]

does anyone else notice that the 18z nam is sending a big slug of tropical moisture from alex up to the mid texas coast? is this possible?

[wxmann_91]

I cant hold back anymore... I think a lot of the euro-huggers are shouting WIN WIN just to piss the rest of us off that get irritated with euro worshipping.. As one pro-met posted many pages ago, dont just look at landfall location for the scorecard. The fact is, none of the models won this one.. the euro never saw the trough breaking down the ridge.. how can you call that a win? Alex helped out the euro by stalling out (euro didn't call for that either)... it was all about timing.. the euro may be closest as far as location, but only because Alex stalled when the ridge eroded and allowed it to build back in.. If Alex doesn't stall, then the euro would be an epic fail and we would most likely be evacuating the deepwater horizon site.. I'm not a euro hater, and i do like it in some situations, but I don't give credit where credit isnt due. my own advice is to not depend so much on one particular model.. different setups favor certain models.. I patiently await the day where the euro just completely blows it.. ok done..

At least one of the runs from the Euro showed a slowdown in the SE BOC, a slight turn north, and then a bend to the west. Except that it was too far south.

The GFS and CMC were far worse off with landfalls in Corpus Christi or Victoria.

[Ikester]

I cant hold back anymore... I think a lot of the euro-huggers are shouting WIN WIN just to piss the rest of us off that get irritated with euro worshipping.. As one pro-met posted many pages ago, dont just look at landfall location for the scorecard. The fact is, none of the models won this one.. the euro never saw the trough breaking down the ridge.. how can you call that a win? Alex helped out the euro by stalling out (euro didn't call for that either)... it was all about timing.. the euro may be closest as far as location, but only because Alex stalled when the ridge eroded and allowed it to build back in.. If Alex doesn't stall, then the euro would be an epic fail and we would most likely be evacuating the deepwater horizon site.. I'm not a euro hater, and i do like it in some situations, but I don't give credit where credit isnt due. my own advice is to not depend so much on one particular model.. different setups favor certain models.. I patiently await the day where the euro just completely blows it.. ok done..

At least one of the runs from the Euro showed a slowdown in the SE BOC, a slight turn north, and then a bend to the west. Except that it was too far south.

The GFS and CMC were far worse off with landfalls in Corpus Christi or Victoria.

I 100% disagree with you. Victoria to Galveston would very likely seen the center cross over or between those towns if Alex would not have stalled. NO MODEL showed it. The euro was out to lunch. The Canadian and GFS clearly saw the weakness and if Alex hadn't of stalled, Houston would be dealing with a hurricane tomorrow.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

does anyone else notice that the 18z nam is sending a big slug of tropical moisture from alex up to the mid texas coast? is this possible?

Very much so!!

[sphelps8681]

does anyone else notice that the 18z nam is sending a big slug of tropical moisture from alex up to the mid texas coast? is this possible?

Very much so!!

How much rain do you think we will get out of Alex?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I cant hold back anymore... I think a lot of the euro-huggers are shouting WIN WIN just to piss the rest of us off that get irritated with euro worshipping.. As one pro-met posted many pages ago, dont just look at landfall location for the scorecard. The fact is, none of the models won this one.. the euro never saw the trough breaking down the ridge.. how can you call that a win? Alex helped out the euro by stalling out (euro didn't call for that either)... it was all about timing.. the euro may be closest as far as location, but only because Alex stalled when the ridge eroded and allowed it to build back in.. If Alex doesn't stall, then the euro would be an epic fail and we would most likely be evacuating the deepwater horizon site.. I'm not a euro hater, and i do like it in some situations, but I don't give credit where credit isnt due. my own advice is to not depend so much on one particular model.. different setups favor certain models.. I patiently await the day where the euro just completely blows it.. ok done..

At least one of the runs from the Euro showed a slowdown in the SE BOC, a slight turn north, and then a bend to the west. Except that it was too far south.

The GFS and CMC were far worse off with landfalls in Corpus Christi or Victoria.

I 100% disagree with you. Victoria to Galveston would very likely seen the center cross over or between those towns if Alex would not have stalled. NO MODEL showed it. The euro was out to lunch. The Canadian and GFS clearly saw the weakness and if Alex hadn't of stalled, Houston would be dealing with a hurricane tomorrow.

But their not!!!!!!!

[weatherguy425]

Remember guys, just because Alex will most likely make landfall in Mexico, doesn't mean texas won't feel his effects. Even up here on the upper Texas coast, we're going to have some incredible amounts of moisture thrown over us (2.7 PWS)!! The flooding potential should be on everyone's mind.

[Ikester]

No, we're not. But the point still remains. Hardly a victory for any model.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Big rains expected along the upper Tx Coast Thru Saturday.

[Wx_Warrior]

NHC 4p even further south now

[Tireman4]

Remember guys, just because Alex will most likely make landfall in Mexico, doesn't mean texas won't feel his effects. Even up here on the upper Texas coast, we're going to have some incredible amounts of moisture thrown over us (2.7 PWS)!! The flooding potential should be on everyone's mind.

And that worries me Weatherguy. This could have copious amounts of rainfall for the Houston/Galveston area.

[South Texas Storms]

does anyone else notice that the 18z nam is sending a big slug of tropical moisture from alex up to the mid texas coast? is this possible?

Very much so!!

How much rain do you think we will get out of Alex?

it looks like anywhere south of a college station to austin line can expect 2-5 inches of rain, locally more.

[PTrackerLA]

I apologize for the "looks like a Euro win" post yesterday. I didn't anticipate the bickering back and forth over this statement and yes I understand how the Euro 'got it right for all the wrong reasons.' Once we had "Alex," the Euro kept it south of the border while most all other models indicated this could be a SE Texas or even LA storm...that's all I was trying to say.
IF you want to continue arguing about that statement have fun. We've got bigger issues to worry about this season and many years to come in Louisiana.