ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[A1A]

I apologize for the "looks like a Euro win" post yesterday. I didn't anticipate the bickering back and forth over this statement and yes I understand how the Euro 'got it right for all the wrong reasons.' Once we had "Alex," the Euro kept it south of the border while most all other models indicated this could be a SE Texas or even LA storm...that's all I was trying to say.
IF you want to continue arguing about that statement have fun. We've got bigger issues to worry about this season and many years to come in Louisiana.

It's OK. The debate has been healthy. Half the people that aren't into this forum would question whether we have a life anyway so a hearty debate on models is just what is going to happen given our interests.

[lebron23]

FWIW..18Z NAM just a bit north

[Wx_Warrior]

There's a storm to follow here people! WAKE UP!

[Sanibel]

I think what we are seeing is weather is fluid and dynamic and unpredictable. The models have trouble seeing more than a few days out because of this.

[wxmann_91]

I 100% disagree with you. Victoria to Galveston would very likely seen the center cross over or between those towns if Alex would not have stalled. NO MODEL showed it. The euro was out to lunch. The Canadian and GFS clearly saw the weakness and if Alex hadn't of stalled, Houston would be dealing with a hurricane tomorrow.

No model showed it but the Euro (and perhaps others) hinted at it.

Alex stalled because it was under competing steering influences between the ridge to the NW and the poorly-modeled trough to the NE; it stalled because of the weakness, not despite of it. If Alex had crossed the Yucatan further north, the weakness might have steered it to the central Gulf Coast, but as it was, it was too far south to be caught by the weakness. Instead it just got stuck in a steering tug of war.

The reason why most models didn't pick up the stalling was because the GFS camp was too strong with the trough, allowing Alex to catch the weakness, while the Euro was slightly too weak, making the ridge to the west a more dominant steering mechanism.

The setup was very subtle and the slightest change would've imparted significant errors in track modeling. This is one of those cases where Gulfstream data would be very useful, and indeed, the models only converged after ingestion of that data yesterday evening.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I 100% disagree with you. Victoria to Galveston would very likely seen the center cross over or between those towns if Alex would not have stalled. NO MODEL showed it. The euro was out to lunch. The Canadian and GFS clearly saw the weakness and if Alex hadn't of stalled, Houston would be dealing with a hurricane tomorrow.

No model showed it but the Euro (and perhaps others) hinted at it.

Alex stalled because it was under competing steering influences between the ridge to the west and the poorly-modeled trough to the NE; it stalled because of the weakness, not despite of it. If Alex had crossed the Yucatan further north, the weakness might have steered it to the central Gulf Coast, but as it was, it was too far south to be caught by the weakness. Instead it just got stuck in a steering tug of war.

The reason why most models didn't pick up the stalling was because the GFS camp was too strong with the trough, allowing Alex to catch the weakness, while the Euro was slightly too weak, making the ridge to the west a more dominant steering mechanism.

GREAT POST!!!!!!!

[lebron23]

I 100% disagree with you. Victoria to Galveston would very likely seen the center cross over or between those towns if Alex would not have stalled. NO MODEL showed it. The euro was out to lunch. The Canadian and GFS clearly saw the weakness and if Alex hadn't of stalled, Houston would be dealing with a hurricane tomorrow.

No model showed it but the Euro (and perhaps others) hinted at it.

Alex stalled because it was under competing steering influences between the ridge to the NW and the poorly-modeled trough to the NE; it stalled because of the weakness, not despite of it. If Alex had crossed the Yucatan further north, the weakness might have steered it to the central Gulf Coast, but as it was, it was too far south to be caught by the weakness. Instead it just got stuck in a steering tug of war.

The reason why most models didn't pick up the stalling was because the GFS camp was too strong with the trough, allowing Alex to catch the weakness, while the Euro was slightly too weak, making the ridge to the west a more dominant steering mechanism.

The setup was very subtle and the slightest change would've imparted significant errors in track modeling. This is one of those cases where Gulfstream data would be very useful, and indeed, the models only converged after ingestion of that data yesterday evening.

I believe if the storm didnt stall it would be central texas problem.

[lebron23]

18z GFS looks about the same as 12z

[South Texas Storms]

I 100% disagree with you. Victoria to Galveston would very likely seen the center cross over or between those towns if Alex would not have stalled. NO MODEL showed it. The euro was out to lunch. The Canadian and GFS clearly saw the weakness and if Alex hadn't of stalled, Houston would be dealing with a hurricane tomorrow.

No model showed it but the Euro (and perhaps others) hinted at it.

Alex stalled because it was under competing steering influences between the ridge to the NW and the poorly-modeled trough to the NE; it stalled because of the weakness, not despite of it. If Alex had crossed the Yucatan further north, the weakness might have steered it to the central Gulf Coast, but as it was, it was too far south to be caught by the weakness. Instead it just got stuck in a steering tug of war.

The reason why most models didn't pick up the stalling was because the GFS camp was too strong with the trough, allowing Alex to catch the weakness, while the Euro was slightly too weak, making the ridge to the west a more dominant steering mechanism.

The setup was very subtle and the slightest change would've imparted significant errors in track modeling. This is one of those cases where Gulfstream data would be very useful, and indeed, the models only converged after ingestion of that data yesterday evening.

I believe if the storm didnt stall it would be central texas problem.

do you think if alex didnt stall he would have made landfall in corpus or in louisiana?

[KWT]

Not going to be much changes now, system broadly following the GFDL track system over the last 24hrs, the ECM has done decently in general...BUT it did overdo the upper high in the longer ranges, as we all know is its bias, but it proved a far smaller issue than the GFS overdoing of troughs in this set-up.

[lebron23]

Not going to be much changes now, system broadly following the GFDL track system over the last 24hrs, the ECM has done decently in general...BUT it did overdo the upper high in the longer ranges, as we all know is its bias, but it proved a far smaller issue than the GFS overdoing of troughs in this set-up.

If this was facebook i would hit the like button..

[txagwxman]

Alex is one of the largest storms I can remember...I think the upper-level wind field is bigger than Ivan, and is comparable to Allen.

[jlauderdal]

Not going to be much changes now, system broadly following the GFDL track system over the last 24hrs, the ECM has done decently in general...BUT it did overdo the upper high in the longer ranges, as we all know is its bias, but it proved a far smaller issue than the GFS overdoing of troughs in this set-up.

the euro was really good on alex and the whole pattern, lets see how it does with our next players, i smell a rat with the gfs, etc developing something in the NE gulf

[ROCK]

Waitiing in Denver on my plane. Glad i didn't stay up for the all knowing Euro... I bet Ivan did.... .seriously guys we have bigger fish to fire. The CV season is way early, ssts anomolies are extreme. This will not be the only threat in the GOM this year. I suspect at least 2-3 more.........lesson learned for this storm? Follow the consensus and weigh all models, the EURO more than others....



BTW- EURO hinting soemthing in the carb in a few days. Alex is old news..

[KWT]

Its barely hinting Rock, I mean there is some slightly lower pressure but hardly nothing that screams out even a hint at something developing really

Lesson learned should be GFS+CMC overdo troughing, its why the CMC did so well last year because the El Nino actually caused more trough, expect the ECM to perform better with a weak La Nina pattern in play, but it may sometimes be too far west/south in some evolutions.

[TexasF6]

Spawn of Alex???

Whats this model I saw in the Long Range Forum where Alex spawns a low in the SW GOM? Alex 2.0? Bonnie, daughter of Alex? What does the euro model say? Or is it hogwash? This would be a fascinating occurence....What is the WRF model exactly? Thoughts people?

[jlauderdal]

guys, the euro was good but lets not go to euro crazy, gfs could be the rock star in 3 weeks, watching the model performance can be more interesting than intensity and track...lets see what happens but i think we can all agree its going to be active

[RachelAnna]

Its barely hinting Rock, I mean there is some slightly lower pressure but hardly nothing that screams out even a hint at something developing really

Lesson learned should be GFS+CMC overdo troughing, its why the CMC did so well last year because the El Nino actually caused more trough, expect the ECM to perform better with a weak La Nina pattern in play, but it may sometimes be too far west/south in some evolutions.

So, do you just think it'll dissipate once Alex makes landfall? Doesn't look like all that much to me right now, but who knows. I have a feeling this season is going to bring some things that we have never seen before into play!

[antonlsu]

Waitiing in Denver on my plane. Glad i didn't stay up for the all knowing Euro... I bet Ivan did.... .seriously guys we have bigger fish to fire. The CV season is way early, ssts anomolies are extreme. This will not be the only threat in the GOM this year. I suspect at least 2-3 more.........lesson learned for this storm? Follow the consensus and weigh all models, the EURO more than others....



BTW- EURO hinting soemthing in the carb in a few days. Alex is old news..

Alex is old news???? Its about to impact an area of extreme poverty and your saying its old news... The news of devastation and death to the country of mexico hasnt even spawned yet.

[gatorcane]

He is going to turn...into Brownsville or south about 30-60 miles.

Good call, that is what my thinking has been as well for the past several days. Looks like the NHC still thinks so as well. I think we are pretty darn close to ruling out S. Texas even. NE Mexico seems more likely with strong model consensus. Central Plains ridge is "digging" SE as we speak. ECMWF has done quite well with Alex I must admit, at least towards the end, in the beginning it was all over the place, granted it was out 8-10 days out when it was calling for a SE Texas hit, so we'll cut it some slack!