ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[Aric Dunn]

was the nw movement expected?

Well myself and a couple others were expecting a more northerly component...

[TheBurn]

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...

So it slowed forward speed, increased intensity, and is trending north/east of the forecast points? Would that be about right?

[jinftl]

If we continue to see a heading of 315 deg (NW), i would expect tropical storm warnings may be extended northward to cover part/all of the tropical storm watch that is in effect to Jupiter.

[Lane]

was the nw movement expected?

I am no expert by any means, but from I gather no it was not supposed to stay NW. Though tonight or Friday they are calling for a WNW turn

[AdamFirst]

I was hoping that it wouldn't develop My husband is flying out of FTL @3pm tomorrow what are the chances he will get out?

Your husband's flight may be delayed for hours if not canceled altogether. If Bonnie strengthens even more they could close the airports.

[Bocadude85]

If we continue to see a heading of 315 deg (NW), i would expect tropical storm warnings may be extended northward to cover part/all of the tropical storm watch that is in effect to Jupiter.

I was kind of expecting them upgrade the watch to a warning when the shifted the track north at 5pm

[jinftl]

I wonder if they had upgraded to Bonnie at 5pm if they might not have upgraded the watch area to a warning. We will see what happens at 8pm or 11pm.

If we continue to see a heading of 315 deg (NW), i would expect tropical storm warnings may be extended northward to cover part/all of the tropical storm watch that is in effect to Jupiter.

I was kind of expecting them upgrade the watch to a warning when the shifted the track north at 5pm

[Countrygirl911]

Isn't bonnie a tropical storm before they perdicted it to be if so what does that mean when it makes lanfal on the coast somewhere

[jinftl]

The upgrade to tropical storm came with a 5mph increase in wind speed....that is insignificant in terms of effects. If we start to see the pressure dropping rapidly then the winds could ramp up. A landfalling 35 mph system or a landfalling 40 mph system is essentially the same thing.

Once an aircraft was able to get into the system, it is not too unsual to find a system slightly weaker or stronger than originally estimated. It's just in this instance, that is the difference between a td and a named storm.

Isn't bonnie a tropical storm before they perdicted it to be if so what does that mean when it makes lanfal on the coast somewhere

[Bocadude85]

Not a huge deal but Bonnie went from 22.7n 75.4w to 22.9n 75.4w

[hurricanefloyd5]

haha nick walker said mb pressure is down to 105mb LOL he meant 1005mb

[jinftl]

at 11am, the td was at 21.9n, 75.0w

to go to 22.9n, 75.4w is telling


The 11am advisory put the forecast position at 11pm tonight at 23/0000Z 22.6N 76.8W 35 KT

Not a huge deal but Bonnie went from 22.7n 75.4w to 22.9n 75.4w

[SunnyThoughts]

[Cookie]

anyone got any decent images.

havent been any for a while

[TheBurn]

Everything seems to be coming together. I wonder if we could we see a period of rapid intensification tonight...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

ok, i'll be hibernating on this site again .

Well 2 things. Being from Houston, i dont like our position in this cone. Possible that it swings our way still.

Secondly, do you guy REALLY think this storm will cross much of the GOM and not blossom into at least a CAT 1 or CAT 2 hurricane?

Disclaimer : Not a forecast and should not be taken as one. I'm a finance major not a MET major

[antonlsu]

Hopefully not, RI would not be a good sign.

[Nederlander]

I dont think the NW motion is a trend that will continue.. Its going to make jogs and wobbles here and there.. This motion is probably due to the effects of the ULL.. I think it will start bending back to the WNW over the next few hours.. I would say this is coming in somewhere between Key Largo and Miami.. I will make Homestead my mark..

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[jasons2k]

Ramping-up faster than I thought it would be, that's for sure.

[jinftl]

True, but even a wnw course starting from a positon 60 miles or so north of the original forecast has an impact when you draw that track out in whether this crosses the lower Keys or over extreme southern mainland florida.

Wobbles, jogs, and reformations of the center of developing systems can impact exact tracks when you are so close in to landfall.

I dont think the NW motion is a trend that will continue.. Its going to make jogs and wobbles here and there.. This motion is probably due to the effects of the ULL.. I think it will start bending back to the WNW over the next few hours.. I would say this is coming in somewhere between Key Largo and Miami.. I will make Homestead my mark..

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.