ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Nederlander]

Just saw the NHC Forcast 5 Day Prediction and they moved it a little back to the North.

Looks like Brownsville is back in the 5-day cone.

I dont understand the NHC's reasoning for moving it more to the north.. the models that are calling for it to go north is flat out because they are holding on to the ridge breaking down.. if this verifies, then Alex will get pulled north and curve, if it does not verify, then Alex will be held on a more westerly track with no curve.. but the NHC is showing a NW track and then flattening out and heading west.. maybe my thinking is wrong on this, but it just doesnt make sense to me..

[Brent]

Interesting shift north but I am not sold... yet.

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't like the shift North at all.....I'm still hoping that the ridge holds and that Alex doesn't emerge fully back over BOC. If I'm wrong, then it may make it to a hurricane afterall...

[KFDM Meteorologist]

THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFDL AND GFS TAKE ALEX FARTHER NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SPURIOUS
VORTICITY MAXIMA IN BOTH MODELS THAT ERODE THE RIDGE NORTH OF ALEX.
GIVEN THEIR LACK OF CONTINUITY...THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS ARE
CONSIDERED OUTLIERS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE DUE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION AND MOTION...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS EXCLUDING THE GFDL AND GFS.

[Ivanhater]

Been moving NW since last advisory

7PM CDST 17.4N/88.1W....

9PM CDST 17.7N/88.4W

[LaBreeze]

Just saw the NHC Forcast 5 Day Prediction and they moved it a little back to the North.

Looks like Brownsville is back in the 5-day cone.

I dont understand the NHC's reasoning for moving it more to the north.. the models that are calling for it to go north is flat out because they are holding on to the ridge breaking down.. if this verifies, then Alex will get pulled north and curve, if it does not verify, then Alex will be held on a more westerly track with no curve.. but the NHC is showing a NW track and then flattening out and heading west.. maybe my thinking is wrong on this, but it just doesnt make sense to me..

How so Nederlander? How is it not making sense? Isn't it because of the front that they're expecting it to push Alex more west?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Ridge looks to re build by Midweek north of Alex.

[Nederlander]

How so Nederlander? How is it not making sense? Isn't it because of the front that they're expecting it to push Alex more west?

NOO.. its the opposite.. the trof would break down the ridge, pulling Alex north.. The subtropical ridge is what is keeping Alex to the west...

but if what Kerry (KFDM MET) said about the models is correct, then they are reading into vorticity maxima breaking down the ridge..

[Ivanhater]

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Ridge looks to re build by Midweek north of Alex.

I guess that depends on if the trough weakens and does not make it as far south as the gulf coast states or not?

[ozonepete]

Been moving NW since last advisory

7PM CDST 17.4N/88.1W....

9PM CDST 17.7N/88.4W

That's a pretty strong ridge forecast to dig into the middle of the U.S. this week. If it digs any further south than forecast, Alex will have to respond to it.

[LaBreeze]

Been moving NW since last advisory

7PM CDST 17.4N/88.1W....

9PM CDST 17.7N/88.4W

That's a pretty strong ridge forecast to dig into the middle of the U.S. this week. If it digs any further south than forecast, Alex will have to respond to it.

What sort of response do you see possibly?

[ozonepete]

Oh, if the ridge builds in ahead of it, it would definitely have to turn northeastward. But it is way too early to tell, and no one can really forecast 5 days out with any solid accuracy at all. I'm just speculating. But we have to consider the possibilities.

[HURAKAN]

Loop

[ozonepete]

Gaining a little lattitiude. Hmmm.

[vbhoutex]

Gaining a little lattitiude. Hmmm.

Hush!! He'll hear you!! Don't give him ideas!

[americanre1]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I really think that the NHC will slowly move the cone of possible path more north if all these models keep on saying that it will hit around Sabine Pass on Friday/Saturday/Sunday. That is nearly a week away so they can change it every 3 hours when they do a update about 50 to 80 miles further north. That would actually be about what they did with the last update. So we will see if the models keep on saying the same thing. If so it will be an interesting week.

A side note if you look on water vapor image of the Gulf of Mexico you can see an upper level disturbance over the Texas/Louisiana line. What effect could that have on Alex's path???

[Nederlander]

I really think that the NHC will slowly move the cone of possible path more north if all these models keep on saying that it will hit around Sabine Pass on Friday/Saturday/Sunday. That is nearly a week away so they can change it every 3 hours when they do a update about 50 to 80 miles further north. That would actually be about what they did with the last update. So we will see if the models keep on saying the same thing. If so it will be an interesting week.

A side note if you look on water vapor image of the Gulf of Mexico you can see an upper level disturbance over the Texas/Louisiana line. What effect could that have on Alex's path???

thats exactly what happened with Rita.. south texas at first then farther and farther north during the week with the model updates.. even up until the last few hours.. then it went just east of sabine pass.. albeit, it was a completely different setup

[HurricaneRobert]

Models show Alex is doing a yo-yo.

[americanre1]

Seems to me that he is actually trying to consolidate his center while over land. And I see a little jog to the north. Does anyone else see that???
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfwv.html

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.