ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Nederlander]

EDIT: we all posted the disco at the same time so I will edit mine to just show the highlights of what I thought was interesting..

THE RADAR AND SATELLITE DEPICTIONS OF
ALEX LOOKS MORE LIKE A HURRICANE THAN A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ERODES IN THE 36-72 HOUR TIME FRAME LEAVING
A LARGE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF.
THIS WEAK FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ALEX TO SLOW DOWN AND
ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE.

THE CURRENT PROGRESSIVE 5-WAVE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE THE GFS-CANADIAN
SOLUTION

IF THE RECENT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
MODELS CONTINUES...THEN ALEX COULD REMAIN OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT 5
DAYS RESULTING IN A VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE.

THERE IS AT LEAST A MODERATE LIKELIHOOD
THAT ALEX COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE.

[Chacor]

Alex's size is really big.

This is from the Eastern Pacific TWO:

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ALONG THE
COASTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR...AND
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHERN CIRCULATION OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM ALEX. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
WITHIN THIS AREA AS ALEX MOVES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON SUNDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[xironman]

Very interesting 5am discussion from NHC, especially with Stewart, I have always been impressed with his forecasts.

[Brent]

Never seen an NHC discussion like that.

To say I'm shocked would be an understatement.

[southerngale]

I expected a slight shift north in the track, but I didn't expect a discussion like that! Wow, very interesting, and worrisome.

[Nederlander]

I expected a slight shift north in the track, but I didn't expect a discussion like that! Wow, very interesting, and worrisome.

yeah but the forecast track doesnt really reflect the disco? Stewart sounds like hes hell bent on grabbing a hold of the GFS/CMC solution but then the forecast track is only a slight shift.. looks to be well south of even the EURO.. hmm interesting..

EDIT: These are the two statements that caught my eye

THE CURRENT PROGRESSIVE 5-WAVE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE THE GFS-CANADIAN
SOLUTION

IF THE RECENT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
MODELS CONTINUES...THEN ALEX COULD REMAIN OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT 5
DAYS RESULTING IN A VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE.

[MississippiHurricane]

I say no one is in the clear yet...........seen too many of these things change very rapidly this is a great time to get ready for this hurricane season if you have not done so yet!

[southerngale]

I expected a slight shift north in the track, but I didn't expect a discussion like that! Wow, very interesting, and worrisome.

yeah but the forecast track doesnt really reflect the disco? Stewart sounds like hes hell bent on grabbing a hold of the GFS/CMC solution but then the forecast track is only a slight shift.. looks to be well south of even the EURO.. hmm interesting..

EDIT: These are the two statements that caught my eye

THE CURRENT PROGRESSIVE 5-WAVE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE THE GFS-CANADIAN
SOLUTION

IF THE RECENT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
MODELS CONTINUES...THEN ALEX COULD REMAIN OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT 5
DAYS RESULTING IN A VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE.

Even if they think the track should be further north, I don't think they'd make a large shift in one advisory, particularly when he noted that they would need one more model cycle to confirm the trend. I'm not surprised it was only a slight shift, but if the models continue to trend north, they'll adjust it more. Wow... just wasn't expecting a discussion like that.

[Nederlander]

Even if they think the track should be further north, I don't think they'd make a large shift in one advisory, particularly when he noted that they would need one more model cycle to confirm the trend. I'm not surprised it was only a slight shift, but if the models continue to trend north, they'll adjust it more. Wow... just wasn't expecting a discussion like that.

I agree with what other have said about the disco.. They usually use quite a bit of discretion with these situations so they dont sound any alarms.. especially after only one set of models runs shifting.. but he was quite blunt.. sounds like the NHC is getting slightly worried about this thing becoming more than just a slam dunk into s. mexico..

[funster]

This latest discussion was quite a contrast to the SPURIOUS VORTICITY MAXIMA discussion.

The board will probably get busier tomorrow with the possibility of a major hurricane and part of the Texas coast back in the cone.

[KWT]

Oh dear that presentation is Immense!!

BUT this TS was bursting upon landfall and these storm always tend to hold up better...but even then to still be a TS and to have a cracking structure is amazing...

I'd bet this ramps up very quickly over water...worrying times!

[SETXWXLADY]

Wow! This getting down right scary. I'm glad he was so blunt. At least we get some kind of heads up just in case. If the more northern track does come into play things will go down hill fast. Especially on the weekend. Local news doesn't come on regularly. Wonder if Greg Bostwick would come in on the weekend and do a web show if the the track changes toward us. Probably not. Ah well. We'll see soon enough.

[cycloneye]

just wasn't expecting a discussion like that.

Stewart is one of the best doing long and with plenty of meat discussions.

[jlauderdal]

I expected a slight shift north in the track, but I didn't expect a discussion like that! Wow, very interesting, and worrisome.

yeah but the forecast track doesnt really reflect the disco? Stewart sounds like hes hell bent on grabbing a hold of the GFS/CMC solution but then the forecast track is only a slight shift.. looks to be well south of even the EURO.. hmm interesting..

EDIT: These are the two statements that caught my eye

THE CURRENT PROGRESSIVE 5-WAVE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE THE GFS-CANADIAN
SOLUTION

IF THE RECENT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
MODELS CONTINUES...THEN ALEX COULD REMAIN OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT 5
DAYS RESULTING IN A VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE.

Even if they think the track should be further north, I don't think they'd make a large shift in one advisory, particularly when he noted that they would need one more model cycle to confirm the trend. I'm not surprised it was only a slight shift, but if the models continue to trend north, they'll adjust it more. Wow... just wasn't expecting a discussion like that.

Southergale summarized it well.

1. They have models in two camps so they aren't going to make big changes which is a good idea.
2. If it takes the gfs route then of course it will be over water much longer due to the track and the fact when they turn they usually slow way down so the fact he talks about a powerful hurricane really shouldn't be that shocking considering sst's, low shear, time over water and an anticycolone over the top...all in the recipe for majors.
3. It still has excellent presentation so it isnt decaying as fast as one would expect so the system has a headstart when coming back over the water.

I still think it ends up in Mexico next week.

Its a discussion, not a forecast so the idea is to discuss the possibilities without laying down a forecast. Thats why people on this board and other boards are much more informed then the average joe because they read the discos.

[KWT]

Wow! This getting down right scary. I'm glad he was so blunt. At least we get some kind of heads up just in case. If the more northern track does come into play things will go down hill fast. Especially on the weekend. Local news doesn't come on regularly. Wonder if Greg Bostwick would come in on the weekend and do a web show if the the track changes toward us. Probably not. Ah well. We'll see soon enough.

Well I think you'd still have to favour the Mexico option to be honest as others have said, but what it does do is raise the risk to S.Texas and therefore they should just kep a very beady eye on this system because some of the models are shifting about still...

Lets hope the CMC isn't right wuith a big hurricane hitting C/E Texas...

[SkeetoBite]

Sobering NHC Discussion. If I recall correctly, there was an infamous 2005 storm that actually improved in appearance and intensified as it crossed lower Florida (first landfall) into the Gulf.

I'm pleased to see the level of discussion in this thread for the last two pages. All meat and potatoes without the WAG.

MSH - good advice. Everyone needs to be prepared. The last thing anyone wants is to have done nothing and then an NHC advisory comes out saying "...preparations should be rushed to completion".

[Gustywind]

For those who are interrested (monitor by the radio the latest news on Alex in Belize).
Here's the link:
http://lovefm.com/listen_live.php
From a correspondant of Jamaica on Stormcarib.com
Tropical storm Alex no major damage to Belize as of Sunday 12am
By Blayz Brooks <blayzbrooks at yahoo.com>
Date: Sat, 26 Jun 2010 22:46:52 -0700 (PDT)

Tropical storm Alex made landfall, just about 15miles north of Belize City as a 65 miles tropical storm. I have been monitoring live coverage on Belize love fm . http://lovefm.com/listen_live.php

Most of the reports are that people have been going into shelters. There have been heavy rains, gusty winds up to 48 mph, and electricity blackouts in parts of the country and a few persons have lost zinc roofs. The rivers in the north are normal, but some rivers in the Central and South of Belize that are rising.

The greatest concern is not with the tropical storm conditions now, but after the storm.

The interior of Belize is very mountainous and when all this water is squeezed into the mountain the rivers in the densely populated area may rise and cause chaos. A public official on the station has said the country has fared well; it has highlighted the countries strengths and the areas where improvement is needed.

The forecast is wet weather through to Monday for Belize .

[KWT]

Worth noting that forecast really isn't far from Tampico, wuld only need a small southward shift from there to get a strong hurricane into a major city region...

Looks to me that Alex is following the NHC track thus far pretty much perfectly as you'd expect with a short term forecast. The big uncertainty is whether in bends back westwards or whether it actually picks up even more latitude. Without a doubt todays models have brought at least S.Texas into play.

[bob rulz]

I just read the discussion and the wording is indeed very worrying.

Also, I was looking back through previous seasons, and I thought it was interesting to note that if this ends up making landfall as a hurricane, and as of now there's nothing to suggest that it won't, it would likely be the earliest hurricane landfall in the Atlantic basin since Bonnie made landfall in Texas as a category 1 hurricane on June 26, 1986 - that's 24 years!

Cindy in 2005 is the only one that really even comes close as far as I can tell (July 5).

[Cryomaniac]

...Bonnie made landfall in Texas as a category 1 hurricane on June 26, 1986 - that's 34 years!

It's 24 years, since it's the year I was born!