ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS
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TwisterFanatic
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE ALEX - MODELS
Did any other Model shift north also?
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Well the GFS may not have been so far off afterall from Saturday, because it did forecast it to slow right down and then slowly trend WNW/NW....the difference was the models that did that did it inland...the fact its happening offshore is very important indeed...
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE ALEX - MODELS
18Z GFDl forecast a northward bump in latitude. Oddly, however, the 00Z did not and because of that the 18Z is doing better. 12 nautical miles too far northwest at the 18h/12Z point
WHXX04 KWBC 292322
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL STORM ALEX 01L
INITIAL TIME 18Z JUN 29
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 23.0 93.6 315./11.1
6 22.9 94.5 267./ 7.9
12 23.0 94.9 282./ 4.3
18 23.6 95.5 319./ 8.0
24 24.0 96.4 289./ 9.0
30 24.1 97.3 279./ 8.2
36 23.8 98.3 252./10.0
42 22.9 99.7 237./15.3
48 22.5 101.4 258./16.2
54 22.6 103.3 271./17.2
60 23.1 105.5 283./20.9
66 24.2 107.2 303./20.0
72 25.6 108.7 314./19.0
78 26.6 109.4 323./12.3
84 28.4 111.1 316./22.8
90 28.6 111.6 298./ 4.8
96 32.3 114.0 327./41.8
STORM DISSIPATED AT 96 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
WHXX04 KWBC 292322
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL STORM ALEX 01L
INITIAL TIME 18Z JUN 29
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 23.0 93.6 315./11.1
6 22.9 94.5 267./ 7.9
12 23.0 94.9 282./ 4.3
18 23.6 95.5 319./ 8.0
24 24.0 96.4 289./ 9.0
30 24.1 97.3 279./ 8.2
36 23.8 98.3 252./10.0
42 22.9 99.7 237./15.3
48 22.5 101.4 258./16.2
54 22.6 103.3 271./17.2
60 23.1 105.5 283./20.9
66 24.2 107.2 303./20.0
72 25.6 108.7 314./19.0
78 26.6 109.4 323./12.3
84 28.4 111.1 316./22.8
90 28.6 111.6 298./ 4.8
96 32.3 114.0 327./41.8
STORM DISSIPATED AT 96 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
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Also note the way it slowed the system down alot there before slowly picking up speed again, looks like that GFDL run is doing fairly well for now.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE ALEX - MODELS
The FSU site has less models now. I would like to see the ECMWF included there. 
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
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Nederlander
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE ALEX - MODELS
I cant see this riding up the coast as others have proposed.. there is a ridge bearing down across the central plains, and yes, the ridge is over Oklahoma as well.. I think the problem is the Atlantic ridge hasnt built solidly yet.. but i do look for Alex to get some steering back tonight and move inland tomorrow..
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Wx_Warrior
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Hmm with this northerly jog looks like the end result maybe a draw between the GFS/ECM with something close to the middle line in terms of distance error...though I think ECM may *just* win it due to how consistant it has been.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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brunota2003
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RachelAnna
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Re:
txagwxman wrote:Euro has another Brownsville storm late next week.
Crazy. I know it's early, but any inkling that if it's gonna be a system that stays south, or is there a chance it'll head north?!
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somethingfunny
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Re:
txagwxman wrote:Euro has another Brownsville storm late next week.
That's good news for Brownsville when you consider that last week the Euro had Alex hitting between Pensacola and New Orleans.
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Re: Re:
RachelAnna wrote:txagwxman wrote:Euro has another Brownsville storm late next week.
Crazy. I know it's early, but any inkling that if it's gonna be a system that stays south, or is there a chance it'll head north?!
Should stay south, but it is 9 days out...so who really knows.
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“If you thought that science was certain - well, that is just an error on your part.”
To be fair the 12z ECM has a closed low, probably not even a TD yet alone anything stronger!
Well been very interesting to watch the models try and work out the first hurricane of the season!
Well been very interesting to watch the models try and work out the first hurricane of the season!
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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KFDM Meteorologist
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Re: Re:
At least it shows something that far out.somethingfunny wrote:txagwxman wrote:Euro has another Brownsville storm late next week.
That's good news for Brownsville when you consider that last week the Euro had Alex hitting between Pensacola and New Orleans.
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Seadootoo
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Re: Re:
KFDM Meteorologist wrote:At least it shows something that far out.somethingfunny wrote:txagwxman wrote:Euro has another Brownsville storm late next week.
That's good news for Brownsville when you consider that last week the Euro had Alex hitting between Pensacola and New Orleans.
Oh no.....here we go again
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