ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[tolakram]

WV Loop, 30 frames: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

ULL still moving away.

[sphelps8681]

In our local weather at 5:00 the Met could not understand how the forecast track could be Central LA where it makes landfall with the ridge there and then take it straight N in to the ridge. He said he thinks that the models will start shifting left.

[Patrick99]

she is compacting because she about to be crunched from the NE by the building ridge...nice Bonnie sandwich....she is moving NW now but it wont be much longer...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

i agree ROCK i think we are about to start seeing more of a westerly movement real soon

Yeah but in the last 75 minutes it has moved due north.
I can see NW but north?

Looks like more of a center relocation than actual north movement. Still, I'm guessing this will clip the extreme S. FL mainland. WNW motion closer to due west should resume soon, I think.

[HURAKAN]

the night is darkest before daybreak!!

lol

Not bad, not bad!!!

That was last night!!!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It does appear to be wrapping up with strong convection right over the center...I think
this will strengthen, not rapidly, but still quickly.

[Florida1118]

Why do the TS Warnings extend WAY out into the Atlantic and off of Tampa, But nothing for land 20 miles next to the warnings?

[smw1981]

In our local weather at 5:00 the Met could not understand how the forecast track could be Central LA where it makes landfall with the ridge there and then take it straight N in to the ridge. He said he thinks that the models will start shifting left.

That's funny..one of our local mets (a newbie) said to expect a model shift to the right! I never listen to all fo the media hype; that's why I come to storm2k!

[Emmett_Brown]

Shear looks to have shunted the embryonic CDO off to the N, so it looks like another center reformation may be underway. Looks a bit right of the forecast track at the moment, assuming that the center is not exposed to the SW or something...

[johngaltfla]

They're not going to predict something much stronger than they think it will be. I believe his point was, in a nutshell: Never say never in the tropics. He mentioned Humberto because it wasn't forecast to be a hurricane and ramped up to one EXTREMELY fast before hitting us in SE TX. I don't think anyone thinks Bonnie will be a hurricane if/when it hits Florida, but there is always a chance. Intensity is very hard to forecast.

southerngale, I'll vouch for that. Michelle was supposed to be a "squally" TS. One blown out window and several rooftops just down the street from us later and of course it got the upgrade to a Hurricane after the fact. NEVER say never with a storm until the season is completely over.

This year, I think the season will probably be over in late December.

[Patrick99]

While I agree with you that its highly, highly unlikely.. especially given the conditions.. I would urge anyone to stay away from terms like that when talking about tropical systems.. i experienced Humberto firsthand..[/quote]

They're not going to predict something much stronger than they think it will be. I believe his point was, in a nutshell: Never say never in the tropics. He mentioned Humberto because it wasn't forecast to be a hurricane and ramped up to one EXTREMELY fast before hitting us in SE TX. I don't think anyone thinks Bonnie will be a hurricane if/when it hits Florida, but there is always a chance. Intensity is very hard to forecast.[/quote]


I agree, minor hurricane is theoretically possible - why would it be impossible, if the upper level low gets out of the way enough, and Bonnie spends a little time over the Gulf Stream? Storms ramping up somewhat over that deep well of warm water right before hitting the Keys or S. FL isn't exactly unheard of.

[robbielyn]

No possible way of getting to a hurricane before it hits Forida, probably not even close.
then maybe a mid to strong tropical storm once it hits the gulf due to the forecasted shear.

While I agree with you that its highly, highly unlikely.. especially given the conditions.. I would urge anyone to stay away from terms like that when talking about tropical systems.. i experienced Humberto firsthand..

Believe me, if the NHC thought there was even a remote chance of that occuring, they would have alerted the folks of Florida. They wouldn't take a chance on a storm this close to the mainland.....

Well nhc didn't think humberto was gonna either. So anything can happen. In fact the only ones who could watch what was happening vs model consensus was ipr365 radio they were watching it happen and said this thing is riding the coast and is going to become a hurricane and it did. So models are ok but real time watching the system and what it is doing and the dynamics surrounding it (all the players) gives you more accurate forecast albeit short term vs. models that rely on certain variables well they can all the sudden change or not pick up on something so. Also nexrad stated way before nhc charlie was going to hit way south of tampa he was watching real time data unfolding before his eyes.

[Nederlander]

Can someone explain why the ULL wouldn't serve to pull Bonnie northward and then over the top of it? I understand that they're basically moving in tandem, but I'd like a more detailed explanation if someone could please help me out with this.

well first, the ULL is moving faster than Bonnie is, and secondly, you have a high pressure ridge building westward, so thats not going to let Bonnie head that much north in the long term.. the ridge is your main steering current here..

[johngaltfla]

Why do the TS Warnings extend WAY out into the Atlantic and off of Tampa, But nothing for land 20 miles next to the warnings?

There are no warnings off of Tampa. The warnings start from Bonita Springs/Bonita Beach and move south through the Florida Keys then over to the Miami/Dade area.

The NHC only issues warnings here, it is up to the government of the Bahamas to issue them for their island. NHC advises them to do so, it is up to them to act.

[lrak]

Shear looks to have shunted the embryonic CDO off to the N, so it looks like another center reformation may be underway. Looks a bit right of the forecast track at the moment, assuming that the center is not exposed to the SW or something...

When that happens and may happen again tonight, can the upper level part of the storm pull on the lower level? Or could the ULL pull Bonnie over it? WV sure looks wild!

[CronkPSU]

so how much rain and wind should i be warning my campers and staff about tomorrow in the Metro Orlando area?

[Florida1118]

Why do the TS Warnings extend WAY out into the Atlantic and off of Tampa, But nothing for land 20 miles next to the warnings?

There are no warnings off of Tampa. The warnings start from Bonita Springs/Bonita Beach and move south through the Florida Keys then over to the Miami/Dade area.

The NHC only issues warnings here, it is up to the government of the Bahamas to issue them for their island. NHC advises them to do so, it is up to them to act.

No, im mean on the waters. If you look at the National Watches/ Warnings, You see the TS warnings Extend WAY FAR out into the Atlantic Ocean. And TS warnings 20 miles out as far up as Crystal River on the Gulf Waters. Why 20 miles on water but not Wat./Warn?

[imetrice]

In our local weather at 5:00 the Met could not understand how the forecast track could be Central LA where it makes landfall with the ridge there and then take it straight N in to the ridge. He said he thinks that the models will start shifting left.

That's funny..one of our local mets (a newbie) said to expect a model shift to the right! I never listen to all fo the media hype; that's why I come to storm2k!

That is exactly why I come to Storm2k! I only really listen to my local met in the last 24-48 hrs before a storm comes this way, and then really just for major updates. For this storm, I'll likely watch the models bounce intermittently to the right and left of my location several times before our local met would even think of committing to a landfall site...and rightly so, this far out. I'm glad I am not in Florida right now...or rather I am glad he is not in Florida. The mets there are much more reliable...IMO.

[lrak]

Can someone explain why the ULL wouldn't serve to pull Bonnie northward and then over the top of it? I understand that they're basically moving in tandem, but I'd like a more detailed explanation if someone could please help me out with this.

well first, the ULL is moving faster than Bonnie is, and secondly, you have a high pressure ridge building westward, so thats not going to let Bonnie head that much north in the long term.. the ridge is your main steering current here..

Thanks, sorry for the double question man this board moves fast.

[johngaltfla]

Why do the TS Warnings extend WAY out into the Atlantic and off of Tampa, But nothing for land 20 miles next to the warnings?

There are no warnings off of Tampa. The warnings start from Bonita Springs/Bonita Beach and move south through the Florida Keys then over to the Miami/Dade area.

The NHC only issues warnings here, it is up to the government of the Bahamas to issue them for their island. NHC advises them to do so, it is up to them to act.

No, im mean on the waters. If you look at the National Watches/ Warnings, You see the TS warnings Extend WAY FAR out into the Atlantic Ocean. And TS warnings 20 miles out as far up as Crystal River on the Gulf Waters. Why 20 miles on water but not Wat./Warn?

Because water (oceans) have lower resistance levels to wind than land; once a storm cranks up, gusts in excess of TS strength are expected at sea from from a storm's center. Correct me if I'm wrong Pros, I'm quoting from memory.

[Lane]

has anyone else noticed the storm jog more NE or NNE?