ATL: EARL - Models

[Vortex]

I know cycloneeye is taking notice of this run

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models


393
WHXX01 KWBC 251841
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1841 UTC WED AUG 25 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE EARL (AL072010) 20100825 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100825 1800 100826 0600 100826 1800 100827 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.3N 31.5W 15.2N 34.7W 16.0N 37.8W 16.6N 41.2W
BAMD 14.3N 31.5W 15.1N 33.9W 16.2N 36.5W 17.1N 39.1W
BAMM 14.3N 31.5W 15.2N 34.3W 16.3N 37.4W 17.2N 40.5W
LBAR 14.3N 31.5W 14.8N 34.3W 15.8N 37.5W 16.7N 40.7W
SHIP 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS 59KTS
DSHP 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS 59KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100827 1800 100828 1800 100829 1800 100830 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.1N 44.7W 17.7N 51.9W 18.1N 58.1W 19.1N 61.6W
BAMD 18.0N 41.9W 19.5N 47.2W 21.1N 52.9W 23.3N 58.9W
BAMM 18.0N 43.8W 19.2N 50.7W 20.3N 57.0W 21.2N 61.7W
LBAR 17.5N 44.2W 17.9N 50.7W 17.7N 55.5W .0N .0W
SHIP 68KTS 77KTS 77KTS 80KTS
DSHP 68KTS 77KTS 77KTS 80KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.3N LONCUR = 31.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 14.1N LONM12 = 28.1W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 22KT
LATM24 = 13.6N LONM24 = 24.2W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 50NM

[ROCK]

Ivan, and look at that H in the NE coast of U.S.

going to be very close to you Luis on that run...might get lucky but from the looks of things you might not be with Fiona

[HURAKAN]

[Ivanhater]

Earl looks to recurve this run but much further west than the 00z run

[Blown Away]

Earl looks to recurve this run but much further west than the 00z run

Michael,
This runs seems to move Danielle out to the NE much faster than previous runs? The break in the ridge is clear, but looking at that map it seems the steering currents would be weak for Earl in that position? I'm probably wrong, but this run brings Earl farther west at a lower latitude and it seems like there would be alot of latitude to gain to escape before that ridge would begin filling in?

[artist]

[quote="HURAKAN image of models[/quote]
is that the latest HURAKAN?

[HURAKAN]

[quote="HURAKAN image of models

is that the latest HURAKAN?[/quote]

No, they still say 25/12. Should update soon.

[Ivanhater]

Earl looks to recurve this run but much further west than the 00z run

Michael,
This runs seems to move Danielle out to the NE much faster than previous runs? The break in the ridge is clear, but looking at that map it seems the steering currents would be weak for Earl in that position? I'm probably wrong, but this run brings Earl farther west at a lower latitude and it seems like there would be alot of latitude to gain to escape before that ridge would begin filling in?

Oh yeah. A lot is going to depend on Danielle. Lots of things can happen. If anyone tells you they are confident in where Earl will go is lying

Latest run from the Euro is concerning for the Islands for sure!

[Brent]

144 hours...blows Earl up..Fiona not far behind

Wow, that's close.

[LowndesCoFire]

The recurves have been shifting westward everyday. Keep up this trend and LOOKOUT...the recurve may skirt SFL and head N toward outer banks!

With this system, I will make up my mind after the N turn....if and when that happens.

[artist]

the latest cone above here on S2k shows the islands could be in it later. This may need to be watched very closely. Thinking of all you guys on the islands.

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro

168




192



216



240..Fiona gets trapped under a ridge

[cycloneye]

And Earl hits Nova Scotia/New Foundland.

[hurricaneCW]

Basically each system gets further west. Danielle goes out around 60-62W, than Earl gets to 65-67W, and Fiona, who knows how far west it goes but if does get trapped under the ridge, than watch out east coast.

[Vortex]

That run is an eye opener!

[Blown Away]

Something has to give I can't recall 3 systems following almost the same path within a weeks time?

[Vortex]

I can’t do the research right now as I’m at work but does anyone have a good analog with similar storm position/pattern set up?

[ROCK]

Something has to give I can't recall 3 systems following almost the same path within a weeks time?

aint going to happen...I think Earl follows more west than Dee and Fiona even further west.....the pattern never remains static. Some people on here just dont get it...

[Blown Away]

120 hours...will be a close call for the Islands if the 12z Euro is correct which is very far South and West compared to yesterday's run

NHC 5 day track:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... l#contents

Ok, I'm probably confused but I keep looking at this run and something drastically has changed. The NHC 120 hour position for Danielle is @34N/62W and the EURO's 120 position for Danielle is @40N/51W, so the EURO is now accelerating Danielle out of the picture much faster than before. May not matter because it still recurve's Earl, but if Danielle gets out of the picture sooner it may allow the ridge to fill in sooner? I'm probably wrong, just an observation.