ATL: IGOR - Models

[hurricaneCW]

That's the highest I've seen the SHIPS go up to so far this season, 124 knots. Could Igor be the strongest system of the season?

[Steve]

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... _loop.html

12Z Euro has a nice pattern repeat of Earl/Fiona in case anyone missed it.

[JTD]

Interesting to note that a not insigniifcant number of the Euro ensemble members at 12z have a more westerly track than the operational and the operational is on the extreme NE edge.

[Vortex]

Back in the day there was a time when the NHC really respected the UKMET...I don't see it mentioned too often anymore....Either way the 12Z ukmet while an outlier is certainly an eye opener...



Loop:



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... tLoop.html

[Vortex]

12Z CMC ensembles


Just N or PR Day 6


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... yNH144.gif

[cycloneye]

12Z CMC ensembles


Just N or PR Day 6


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... yNH144.gif

Hmmm,that is very interesting.

[flwxwatcher]

[quote="Vortex"]Back in the day there was a time when the NHC really respected the UKMET...I don't see it mentioned too often anymore....Either way the 12Z ukmet while an outlier is certainly an eye opener...



Another outlier is the JMA model. I know it's not highly regarded but the 12Z run looks like a UKMET type track, having IGOR at 25 North 75 West in 192 Hours. FWIW.

[Vortex]

Here's the JMA in the bahamas 7 days out




http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/ ... HIV=0&WMO=

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models Suite

Code: Select all

232
WHXX01 KWBC 120019
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0019 UTC SUN SEP 12 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGOR (AL112010) 20100912 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100912  0000   100912  1200   100913  0000   100913  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.6N  41.7W   18.6N  44.1W   19.7N  46.8W   20.5N  50.1W
BAMD    17.6N  41.7W   18.0N  44.5W   18.5N  46.7W   19.2N  48.5W
BAMM    17.6N  41.7W   18.2N  44.4W   19.0N  46.9W   19.5N  49.3W
LBAR    17.6N  41.7W   18.2N  44.3W   18.9N  47.0W   19.3N  49.5W
SHIP        65KTS          73KTS          83KTS          94KTS
DSHP        65KTS          73KTS          83KTS          94KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100914  0000   100915  0000   100916  0000   100917  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.7N  53.2W   19.7N  57.7W   20.7N  57.2W   26.3N  58.6W
BAMD    20.0N  50.4W   22.1N  54.5W   24.4N  58.8W   26.1N  61.5W
BAMM    19.9N  51.6W   20.7N  55.4W   22.8N  57.4W   26.3N  59.7W
LBAR    20.0N  52.0W   21.5N  56.1W   23.6N  59.2W   25.9N  61.5W
SHIP       102KTS         116KTS         124KTS         119KTS
DSHP       102KTS         116KTS         124KTS         119KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  17.6N LONCUR =  41.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  15KT
LATM12 =  17.3N LONM12 =  38.7W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 =  16KT
LATM24 =  16.9N LONM24 =  34.8W
WNDCUR =   65KT RMAXWD =   10NM WNDM12 =   60KT
CENPRS =  992MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  240NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =  100NM RD34SE =   60NM RD34SW =   60NM RD34NW = 100NM
 


[ronjon]

Look at the Euro ensemble spread for Igor - muliiple low centers from the Hispanola to the Bahamas to Bermuda.

[ericinmia]

Look at the Euro ensemble spread for Igor - muliiple low centers from the Hispanola to the Bahamas to Bermuda.

Those ensembles are all over the place! lol

[artist]

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/ ... HIV=0&WMO=

[Vortex]

I noticed that earlier...Considering the CMC overall has been one of the best performers the last 2 years I gave it a 2nd look...UKmet appears similar...

[expat2carib]

Holy cow, That looks ugly

[hurricaneCW]

The tracks are congealing around 65W so definite threat for Bermuda, U.S. chances of a landfall are slim to none.

[HurrMark]

00z Tropical Models Suite

Code: Select all

232
WHXX01 KWBC 120019
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0019 UTC SUN SEP 12 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGOR (AL112010) 20100912 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100912  0000   100912  1200   100913  0000   100913  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.6N  41.7W   18.6N  44.1W   19.7N  46.8W   20.5N  50.1W
BAMD    17.6N  41.7W   18.0N  44.5W   18.5N  46.7W   19.2N  48.5W
BAMM    17.6N  41.7W   18.2N  44.4W   19.0N  46.9W   19.5N  49.3W
LBAR    17.6N  41.7W   18.2N  44.3W   18.9N  47.0W   19.3N  49.5W
SHIP        65KTS          73KTS          83KTS          94KTS
DSHP        65KTS          73KTS          83KTS          94KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100914  0000   100915  0000   100916  0000   100917  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.7N  53.2W   19.7N  57.7W   20.7N  57.2W   26.3N  58.6W
BAMD    20.0N  50.4W   22.1N  54.5W   24.4N  58.8W   26.1N  61.5W
BAMM    19.9N  51.6W   20.7N  55.4W   22.8N  57.4W   26.3N  59.7W
LBAR    20.0N  52.0W   21.5N  56.1W   23.6N  59.2W   25.9N  61.5W
SHIP       102KTS         116KTS         124KTS         119KTS
DSHP       102KTS         116KTS         124KTS         119KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  17.6N LONCUR =  41.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  15KT
LATM12 =  17.3N LONM12 =  38.7W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 =  16KT
LATM24 =  16.9N LONM24 =  34.8W
WNDCUR =   65KT RMAXWD =   10NM WNDM12 =   60KT
CENPRS =  992MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  240NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =  100NM RD34SE =   60NM RD34SW =   60NM RD34NW = 100NM
 


Are the BAM models now run for 7 days? It seems the map shows a longer track than the text would indicate.

[cycloneye]

Are the BAM models now run for 7 days? It seems the map shows a longer track than the text would indicate.

Yes, that is new now, but the extension is not at the text,only at the graphics.

[shah8]

00z gfs pretty bad for Bermuda, actually.

[shah8]

00z canadian misses trough, needs weaker one later for recurve if any.

[JTD]

Euro says westward ho after day 6! Big shift if this holds up for the rest of the run.

Should be noted that the Ensembles at 12z were way south of the operational once again.