ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[Gustywind]

[srainhoutx]

I measure 400 miles from the southern Windward Islands, 350 from Trinidad. At the AMS Meeting in Tucson, the NHC stated that they could and possibly would issue TS watches/warnings for disturbances that they expected to develop. Here's their chance.

I'm beginning to think they will have to and soon. This certainly looks much better and with ASCAT and microwave pass imagery, it's hard to believe we are not close to TD/TS status now, IMO.

[CourierPR]

I think we need another Bones quote, "Well don't just stand there Jim, do something!"

[Gustywind]

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT21 KNGU 291200
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.5N 54.0W TO 9.2N 57.7W WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING INTENSIFICATION OF A LOW
SITUATED APPROXIMATELY 600 MILES ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS, MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT APPROXIMATELY 15-20 KTS. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
WEST UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LOW LEVELS OF WIND SHEAR WHICH,
ALONG WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE.
3. REMARKS: THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY 301200Z.//

[wxman57]

Is there a Barbados radar link?

[NCHurricane]

There is, but it's restricted by local authorities.

[Gustywind]

[Cyclone1]

This is a tropical cyclone.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 291151
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N53W THROUGH A 1006 MB SURFACE
LOW NEAR 9N54W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N53W MOVING
WNW 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AND WITH ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PRODUCING
LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG COVERING THE AREA
FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 48W-58W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...VENEZUELA...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
GUYANA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
PAW

[Florida1118]

We will see if they upgrade it at 11. If not, then they must have some sort of reason for not upgrading.

[HURAKAN]

We will see if they upgrade it at 11. If not, then they must have some sort of reason for not upgrading.

waiting for RECON

[Florida1118]

We will see if they upgrade it at 11. If not, then they must have some sort of reason for not upgrading.

waiting for RECON

Did they wait for RECON on Gaston?

[wxman57]

We will see if they upgrade it at 11. If not, then they must have some sort of reason for not upgrading.

waiting for RECON

So they can't upgrade without recon now? What about Shary? Or Lisa? Or many of the other storms this year that formed east of the Caribbean. This one will be hitting the eastern Caribbean in less than 12 hours. I'm baffled.

[HURAKAN]

We will see if they upgrade it at 11. If not, then they must have some sort of reason for not upgrading.

waiting for RECON

Did they wait for RECON on Gaston?

It's not my call, it's theirs. Remember that satellite images can be deceiving although I would agree that it looks to be a depression or storm already.

[HURAKAN]

We will see if they upgrade it at 11. If not, then they must have some sort of reason for not upgrading.

waiting for RECON

So they can't upgrade without recon now? What about Shary? Or Lisa? Or many of the other storms this year that formed east of the Caribbean. This one will be hitting the eastern Caribbean in less than 12 hours. I'm baffled.

I agree 100%. I'm just saying what I think they may be thinking. Since RECON will be there in 4 hours, then they may be waiting for RECON.

[wxman57]

Lacking QuikSCAT or any surface reports south of the storm, they're going to have to make the call based upon the evidence presented by satellite. Can't wait for recon before classifying all systems. I'm just totally shocked that this storm has a lower Dvorak rating than Shary.

Recon may be there in 4 hrs, but it'll take another 2 hours to survey the storm then another hour before the advisory is out. That cuts warning time down considerably for the eastern Caribbean. I'm not sure why recon wasn't out there at sunrise today.

[HURAKAN]

Once I get my internal NOAA e-mail, I will know more about what they're thinking! lol

[HURAKAN]

Lacking QuikSCAT or any surface reports south of the storm, they're going to have to make the call based upon the evidence presented by satellite. Can't wait for recon before classifying all systems. I'm just totally shocked that this storm has a lower Dvorak rating than Shary.

I was thinking about QuikSCAT last night. Sincerely missed. We badly need it

[wxman57]

Lacking QuikSCAT or any surface reports south of the storm, they're going to have to make the call based upon the evidence presented by satellite. Can't wait for recon before classifying all systems. I'm just totally shocked that this storm has a lower Dvorak rating than Shary.

I was thinking about QuikSCAT last night. Sincerely missed. We badly need it

Most likely, QS would have had a big white strip of no data right over 91L. I'm hoping they get XOVGM going in a few years. No funding yet, though, for this next-gen version of QS with a possible return period of 1-2 hrs vs. 12-24 hrs.