ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[KWT]

Yeah it will take a litte while for the system to gain convection over its core, remember its going through Dmin right now as well, as soon as the system can get decently over water and Dmax comes along we will probably see strenghening.

[southerngale]

For those who have AccuWxPro, watch JB's late afternoon update, The Big Dog. He goes over the scenarios and expresses concern for Texas.

[Ikester]

I suspect another shift in the cone to the north at 10. Anybody on board with that?

[Ikester]

For those who have AccuWxPro, watch JB's late afternoon update, The Big Dog. He goes over the scenarios and expresses concern for Texas.

For those that are poor and can't pay, can you give us a summery? I live in Houston for peet sake!

[chzzdekr81]

I suspect another shift in the cone to the north at 10. Anybody on board with that?

I agree. They have been shifting the cone higher and higher almost every update.

[xcool22]

jb said to gulf cost too.thanks.

[KWT]

So who here thinks rapid intensification with Alex is possible and we may be seeing a Category 2 or a Major in the next few days?

Definitely significant strengthening. Major is certainly possible IMO.

I'd say probably a solid 1 will be the lower end of what I'd expect, esp if it decides to take the longer over water route, and at the higher end, then yeah a major hurricane isn't out of the realm of what is possible IMO...

Also looks like the LLC/MLC maybe become a little less stacked over the last 30-60 mins or so looking at the loop, the MLC probably taking a slight westerly wobble again, will probably see the LLC swing westwards again soon, probably got a stair-stepping system here...

I think S.Texas is slowly being drawn back into the game but I'd still go for the MX/TX border solution, I think the models maybe going too far the other way right now...

[MGC]

If you take a good look at the WV loop.....a ULL is closing off near the TX/LA area. This feature IMO is helping to weaken the mid level ridge across the gulf coast. Alex is starting to react and hence the very apparent NW motion on visable sat loop this afternoon. This along with the approaching trough should steer the cyclone towards the NW and possibly NNW. Once the trough lifts out in a few day and the ridge builds back in a WNW motion should resume. I'm going out on a limb and calling for a lower Texas coast landfall. Between Brownsville and Corpus Christi area. As far as intensity goes, Alex appears to be in an near ideal enviroment to intensify. A strong Cat-2 is not out of the question and Alex could possibly flirt with Cat-3. Shear appears low and SST are warm for June......MGC

The above forecast is not official and is that of MGC and not of S2K. For the official forecast check with the National Hurricane Center.

[southerngale]

For those who have AccuWxPro, watch JB's late afternoon update, The Big Dog. He goes over the scenarios and expresses concern for Texas.

For those that are poor and can't pay, can you give us a summery? I live in Houston for peet sake!

I'm on the 30 day free trial myself. In a nutshell, he now thinks Mexico or Southeast Texas, not much in between. He thinks it will strengthen quite a bit, a cat 2 or cat 3, and tried not to sound too alarming for Texas, but well, it is a wee bit concerning.

[KWT]

We should find out exactly where the LLC is right now in a few hours thanks to recon, probably will find out how the winds have held up as well, the circulation still looks quite potent....also interesting to see the actual extent of the stronger circulation on the Vis imagery right now.

What we are looking for in the next 6hrs is a convective blow up close to the system, if we get that then we should see the system slowly strengthen and eventually probably ramp up the scale.

[Cape Verde]

It's a hot, lazy Sunday afternoon here in Houston and 90% of the public don't know anything has been brewing in the tropics. IF they had read the newspaper or watch television at all, they might have noted that a storm might be coming to northern Mexico.

The actual forecast isn't currently different than that, so they probably won't worry about supplies. After all, it isn't REALLY hurricane season until at least August, is it?

The truth is that models are suggesting that a hurricane may be bearing down on them this week. What this means to the oil containment effort is not even being considered.

I hope it stays "a Mexican storm." We're not prepared for anything else.

[Ikester]

This is from the 4am update. I think it is important to repost:

THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10. THE SHORT TERM MOTION IS THE ONLY
THING STRAIGHT-FORWARD ABOUT THE FORECAST TRACK. ALL OF THE MODELS
AGREE ON AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY
CANADA TO DIG SOUTHWARD AND CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES
...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ERODES IN THE 36-72 HOUR TIME FRAME LEAVING
A LARGE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF.
THIS WEAK FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ALEX TO SLOW DOWN AND
ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE
MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS
TAKING ALEX NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE
TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER AREA...WHEREAS THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...GFDL...
HWRF...UKMET...AND GFS-PARALLEL MODELS MOVE ALEX WESTWARD INTO
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS HOW THEY
HANDLE THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...
WHEREAS THE OTHER MODELS PRODUCE A STRONGER...MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
...AND SLOWER PATTERN. THE CURRENT PROGRESSIVE 5-WAVE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE THE GFS-CANADIAN
SOLUTION...BUT AT LEAST ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE WILL BE REQUIRED TO
CONFIRM THAT TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE RIGHT OF
AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN. NOTE...IF THE RECENT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
MODELS CONTINUES...THEN ALEX COULD REMAIN OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT 5
DAYS RESULTING IN A VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE.

[jaxfladude]

I am officially on "Uh Oh" alert!
Stay safe y'all and I will hope and pray for the best all things considered.

[Raininfyr]

I believe that they are watching and watching closely along the northern Gulf Coast, and specifically the oil spill area. Saw where emergency management was looking at what could happen on TWC. On the other hand, our local weather station is still calling it Tropical Storm Alex and still showing where it went in at Belize. Scary. They don't appear to be too concerned at this point.

[mpic]

For those who have AccuWxPro, watch JB's late afternoon update, The Big Dog. He goes over the scenarios and expresses concern for Texas.

For those that are poor and can't pay, can you give us a summery? I live in Houston for peet sake!

I'm on the 30 day free trial myself. In a nutshell, he now thinks Mexico or Southeast Texas, not much in between. He thinks it will strengthen quite a bit, a cat 2 or cat 3, and tried not to sound too alarming for Texas, but well, it is a wee bit concerning.

Did you mean "Mexico or Southwest Texas"?

[americanre1]

Just to let you guys know, they are already evacuating the rigs in the Gulf, so there are evidently pro mets that are believing in the northern swing. Much activity will be going on in the next couple days.

[Ikester]

Just to let you guys know, they are already evacuating the rigs in the Gulf, so there are evidently pro mets that are believing in the northern swing. Much activity will be going on in the next couple days.

Not necessarily true. They have to evacuate as a precaution because there are so many people in harms way. Just because they evacuate does not mean the expect a northern turn to happen. Better safe than sorry.

[southerngale]

Did you mean "Mexico or Southwest Texas"?

No. Basically, it won't get picked up by the trough and will head west into Mexico (ECMWF) or it will and will get lifted north into the Southeast Texas area (GFS). Unfortunately, I can't explain it as well as he can, and while showing his maps and drawing arrows, etc.

[Jagno]

I believe that they are watching and watching closely along the northern Gulf Coast, and specifically the oil spill area. Saw where emergency management was looking at what could happen on TWC. On the other hand, our local weather station is still calling it Tropical Storm Alex and still showing where it went in at Belize. Scary. They don't appear to be too concerned at this point.

Where are you located in Louisiana if you don't mind me asking?

[Jagno]

Just to let you guys know, they are already evacuating the rigs in the Gulf, so there are evidently pro mets that are believing in the northern swing. Much activity will be going on in the next couple days.

Yep, the choppers have been on the move.