ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[StarmanHDB]

Currently in scenic Coconut Creek, Florida....
The sky is covered in a very thick opaque haze. The moonlight looks like a high intensity searchlight desperately trying to radiate through the murky haze. Thick clouds carried along by breezy winds are blowing in from the ESE. Still warm and humid, but the wind has an occasional ever so slight incredibly brief "puff" of coolness. By the way, very beautiful red sunset sky!

Funny, I am in Weston, and its pouring. Wind out of the NE at 17knts

Even in a tropical storm warning we get "typical" South Florida weather (rainy in one area, dry next door)! Gotta love it!

[chris1985]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This is my own opinion but I think she is really starting to get her act together, not all TC are buzzsaws in shape. I wouldn't be surprised when RECON gets in there they find sustained winds around 55 to 60 MPH with gust up to 80. This system is just getting more and more compact thanks to the ULL and the ridge building in above her. This system IMHO has a chance to catch everyone by surprise and get to a Cat 2 in the GoM.

WOW cat 2 you are really going way out on the limb with this one, and what do you believe the % chance of that is ?

And to tell you the truth this is my optimistic forecast and not my pessimistic one. For all the people that have been on here for years would remember how I use to be under my old name Americanrebel. So I am trying to be more careful with not going with my pessimistic gut feeling.

I wish only pro mets could post on this forum when NHC issues the cone....

[funster]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This is my own opinion but I think she is really starting to get her act together, not all TC are buzzsaws in shape. I wouldn't be surprised when RECON gets in there they find sustained winds around 55 to 60 MPH with gust up to 80. This system is just getting more and more compact thanks to the ULL and the ridge building in above her. This system IMHO has a chance to catch everyone by surprise and get to a Cat 2 in the GoM.

WOW cat 2 you are really going way out on the limb with this one, and what do you believe the % chance of that is ?

Wxman57 predicted that two days ago.

TS Bonnie is looking really good and it's not startling either since it is a tiny system which we know can fluctuate rapidly. The models are probably not going to pin this one down well I think but that's a feeling I have.

Recon will be very interesting for sure.

That was a while ago. Most recently Wxman57 said Bonnie could lose its LLC and die.

[americanre1]

And to tell you the truth this is my optimistic forecast and not my pessimistic one. For all the people that have been on here for years would remember how I use to be under my old name Americanrebel. So I am trying to be more careful with not going with my pessimistic gut feeling.[/quote]

I wish only pro mets could post on this forum when NHC issues the cone.... [/quote]

You should of been here a couple years ago whenever I got kicked for my pessimistic forecasts. Be happy that I have lightened up. And I have the disclaimer stating that I'm not a pro and it is just my opinion, if you don't like it just don't worry about it and go on to the next post.

[chris1985]

And to tell you the truth this is my optimistic forecast and not my pessimistic one. For all the people that have been on here for years would remember how I use to be under my old name Americanrebel. So I am trying to be more careful with not going with my pessimistic gut feeling.

I wish only pro mets could post on this forum when NHC issues the cone.... [/quote]

You should of been here a couple years ago whenever I got kicked for my pessimistic forecasts. Be happy that I have lightened up. And I have the disclaimer stating that I'm not a pro and it is just my opinion, if you don't like it just don't worry about it and go on to the next post.[/quote]
...

[maxx9512]

There is also a whole bumch of moisture behind Bonnie headed toward the same direction.
It looks to be a really wet weekend for the southern part of Florida. We could be in for a quite a bit of rain till
Monday from the looks of it.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[ROCK]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html


she up against the ridge now....and made the turn....might even turn some more given the ridge....hopefully it will spare mainland FL and go through the straits....

[Lifesgud2]

Latest

Looking like she should. Cat 1 at land fall could be in the cards. Might want to her stay over that bahama island..

[CourierPR]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html


she up against the ridge now....and made the turn....might even turn some more given the ridge....hopefully it will spare mainland FL and go through the straits....

Is that statement from you or the NHC?

[jlauderdal]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html


she up against the ridge now....and made the turn....might even turn some more given the ridge....hopefully it will spare mainland FL and go through the straits....

the weather is mainly to the north so at this point it doesnt matter too much, you had this big turn 6 hours ago, meanwhile it keeps on its heading, you get the persistence award though...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Really intense burst on IR over the center...looks to be strengthening
quickly...but that is just the appearance...see what recon finds

[Ivanhater]

Recon has not found any west winds through the pass. It could be Bonnie has lost her LLC

[AdamFirst]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html


she up against the ridge now....and made the turn....might even turn some more given the ridge....hopefully it will spare mainland FL and go through the straits....

the weather is mainly to the north so at this point it doesnt matter too much, you had this big turn 6 hours ago, meanwhile it keeps on its heading, you get the persistence award though...

Seriously...it's been "turning left" for the past 12 hours. That's the worst left turn I've ever seen.

[chris1985]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html


she up against the ridge now....and made the turn....might even turn some more given the ridge....hopefully it will spare mainland FL and go through the straits....

the weather is mainly to the north so at this point it doesnt matter too much, you had this big turn 6 hours ago, meanwhile it keeps on its heading, you get the persistence award though...

LULZ. i'm wondering when the big turn is gonna happen as well!

[SFLcane]

2am..

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR

[Cyclenall]

That was a while ago. Most recently Wxman57 said Bonnie could lose its LLC and die.

Huge flip but that was a possible scenario and not an official prediction. Later today I assume there will be predictions all across the board from dissipation to a category 3.

[ROCK]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html


she up against the ridge now....and made the turn....might even turn some more given the ridge....hopefully it will spare mainland FL and go through the straits....

the weather is mainly to the north so at this point it doesnt matter too much, you had this big turn 6 hours ago, meanwhile it keeps on its heading, you get the persistence award though...

Look at the steering layer map.....pretty evident....thank you for the persistence award I earned it...

[americanre1]

Recon has not found any west winds through the pass. It could be Bonnie has lost her LLC

And almost every single one of the obs is flagged, it could be because of land interaction. Grand Bahama is a large island so it could be interfering with the observations. I do find it strange the plane went SW instead of NE for the next part of their pass.

[jhpigott]

Recon has not found any west winds through the pass. It could be Bonnie has lost her LLC

Noticed that as well. Looks as good as ever on IR. Just goes to show that you can't base organization on IR. Need either VIS or recon.