ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[SoupBone]

Just to let you guys know, they are already evacuating the rigs in the Gulf, so there are evidently pro mets that are believing in the northern swing. Much activity will be going on in the next couple days.

Sorry but this isn't true unless you want to post evidence of it. They have been on standby for several days now. There are many factors in play right now for evacs which have been discussed.

[AJC3]

I'm on the 30 day free trial myself. In a nutshell, he now thinks Mexico or Southeast Texas, not much in between. He thinks it will strengthen quite a bit, a cat 2 or cat 3, and tried not to sound too alarming for Texas, but well, it is a wee bit concerning.

Did you mean "Mexico or Southwest Texas"?

Southwest Texas is considered to be the panhandle area - near El Paso and Guadalupe Pass. Usually the convention used is "lower", "middle" or "upper" Texas coast, when referring to Texas's gulf coast.

[mpic]

Did you mean "Mexico or Southwest Texas"?

No. Basically, it won't get picked up by the trough and will head west into Mexico (ECMWF) or it will and will get lifted north into the Southeast Texas area (GFS). Unfortunately, I can't explain it as well as he can, and while showing his maps and drawing arrows, etc.

Thanks for the clarification...I guess I'm guilty of -removed- it away from me. My bad!

[americanre1]

Just to let you guys know, they are already evacuating the rigs in the Gulf, so there are evidently pro mets that are believing in the northern swing. Much activity will be going on in the next couple days.

Not necessarily true. They have to evacuate as a precaution because there are so many people in harms way. Just because they evacuate does not mean the expect a northern turn to happen. Better safe than sorry.

Ikester, don't know where you get your information. They don't evacuate unless they are expecting gale force winds for a sustained amount of time. They have squalls go over them all the time, they are use to them.

[Nederlander]

This is from other rigs.. NOT the deepwater horizon.. at least not yet

[Raininfyr]

Local weather station just updated. They said that it is going to make landfall south of Brownsville Texas and that is great news for those of us on the La. coast.

[hohnywx]

Just to let you guys know, they are already evacuating the rigs in the Gulf, so there are evidently pro mets that are believing in the northern swing. Much activity will be going on in the next couple days.

Sorry but this isn't true unless you want to post evidence of it. They have been on standby for several days now. There are many factors in play right now for evacs which have been discussed.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-0 ... -alex.html

[JTE50]

I suspect another shift in the cone to the north at 10. Anybody on board with that?

I think so too.

[Nederlander]

Local weather station just updated. They said that it is going to make landfall south of Brownsville Texas and that is great news for those of us on the La. coast.

I can guarantee you that they arent seeing anything that we havent seen.. If they are indeed saying this WILL FOR SURE make landfall south of Brownsville then they are being reckless.. Dont let your guard down people.. big mistake

[americanre1]

Just to let you guys know, they are already evacuating the rigs in the Gulf, so there are evidently pro mets that are believing in the northern swing. Much activity will be going on in the next couple days.

Sorry but this isn't true unless you want to post evidence of it. They have been on standby for several days now. There are many factors in play right now for evacs which have been discussed.

I work at a hotel that is right next to Petroleum Helicopters main head quarters and the choppers were flying in and out all day. I have people that have family that work offshore and they have been told that they are evacuating now.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Local weather station just updated. They said that it is going to make landfall south of Brownsville Texas and that is great news for those of us on the La. coast.

Don't think you guys are out of the woods yet. Still alot of time for things to change.

[SoupBone]

Just to let you guys know, they are already evacuating the rigs in the Gulf, so there are evidently pro mets that are believing in the northern swing. Much activity will be going on in the next couple days.

Sorry but this isn't true unless you want to post evidence of it. They have been on standby for several days now. There are many factors in play right now for evacs which have been discussed.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-0 ... -alex.html

Thanks. Again there are many factors at play right now with evacs. They aren't taking any chances at this point and this evac was for non-essential personnel. This is not because of a suspected northerly turn.

I was asking for evidence of his assertion that that mets convinced them to do this because of a northerly swing. I appreciate the article though.

[Raininfyr]

BP is evacuating non-essential workers, per the
TWC.

[cwachal]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 JUN 2010 Time : 211500 UTC
Lat : 19:13:23 N Lon : 90:55:16 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 999.1mb/ 49.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 2.6 2.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.5mb

Center Temp : +5.1C Cloud Region Temp : -25.6C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.38 ARC in MD GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.56 ARC in MD GRAY
at Lat: 18:13:11 N Lon: 89:55:11 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[KWT]

I suspect another shift in the cone to the north at 10. Anybody on board with that?

I think so too.

Probably a slight shift northwards, the problem is the two model groups are pretty even in terms of what models they in thier respective grouping, so you can't really yet give on more weight than the other until we can see how it responds in the next 12-24hrs.

As for evacuating people, surely that is a just in case thing, the ro Mets may not believe the scenario but you can't take any chances with these things...

[wxman57]

It's encouraging that the parallel GFS run is inland near or just south of Brownsville at 108 hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... n_108l.gif

[JDawg1259]

well Im kinda new to this but I feel really concerned about this storm for some reason. Im not really concerned about my location being affected as this storm will hopefully travel south, but Im concerned about the wave action that this storm could produce if it does travel more north than expected because it is so large! and if it strengthens more than it is predicted, than this oil spill is just going to get really bad very quickly...I don't think people realize the situation we could be in very shortly. My prayers go out to everyone who will be affected by this storm.

[Cape Verde]

Local weather station just updated. They said that it is going to make landfall south of Brownsville Texas and that is great news for those of us on the La. coast.

Well, that settles that.

I guess I'll go look at 94L

[hurricanefloyd5]

Posted by: JeffMasters, 6:36 PM GMT on June 27, 2010

Tropical Depression Alex has held together fairly well during its passage over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and stands poised to re-intensify back into a tropical storm once it emerges from the coast tonight. Alex brought heavy rains to northern Honduras, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and Belize over the weekend. It was not a good beach day in Cozumel yesterday, as 9.25" of rain fell. Cancun received 2.05" over the weekend, and Belize City received 4.57". Satellite loops show that Alex's heavy thunderstorms are mostly gone near the center, though there are some impressive bands of precipitation well away from the center. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of Alex, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 5 knots over the storm, contributing to the 5 knots of wind shear observed in this afternoon's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and dry air is currently not a problem for Alex.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Alex.

Forecast for Alex: which model should you trust?
While the track forecast for Alex today through Monday is fairly well-assured, the longer range forecast has become highly uncertain. An increasing number of our reliable models are now indicating Alex may take a more northerly track beginning on Tuesday, with possible landfall on the Texas coast near Galveston on Friday (according to the 8am run of the GFS model) or into western Louisiana on Wednesday (the 8am run of the Canadian model.) The key question remains how Alex will react to the trough of low pressure expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday and Tuesday. Most of the models were predicting that the trough would not be strong enough to swing Alex to the north, and several of them continue to predict this. The 8am runs of the NOGAPS and ECMWF models, for example, take Alex into the Gulf coast of Mexico 150 miles south of Texas, on Wednesday. The GFDL and HWRF models split the difference, with the GFDL predicting a Thursday landfall in southern Texas near Brownsville, and the HWRF predicting a Thursday landfall near Corpus Christi. Morris Bender of the GFDL group has just provided me the track forecast from an improved experimental version of the GFDL that shows landfall between Corpus Christi and Galveston. So which model should you trust? Last year, the best performing models at the 3 - 4 day forecast range were the GFS and the Canadian, and these are the models that are currently calling for the more northerly track towards the upper Texas coast and Louisiana. Residents of those areas should review their hurricane preparedness plans and anticipate that Alex could make landfall as early as Wednesday in their vicinity. Residents of the Mexican coast south of Brownsville should make similar plans, as Alex could just as easily hit there.

Re-intensification of Alex is likely once the center of Alex moves offshore, though this will initially be slow due to the current disorganized state of the storm and the relatively low total ocean heat content in the 100-mile-wide stretch of water on the west side of the Yucatan Peninsula. Once Alex moves more than 100 miles from the Yucatan, total heat content of the ocean increases substantially, and Alex will have the opportunity to intensify significantly. A longer time spent over water will give Alex more of a chance to strengthen, and it is possible Alex could intensify into a major hurricane if landfall is delayed until Thursday or Friday. However, Alex's intensification may be limited the farther north it gets, as water vapor satellite images show plenty of dry air over Texas that might interfere with development. Wind shear might also be an issue for Alex if it pushes far enough north, and a slow-moving storm tends to pull up cold water from the depths, limiting intensification. In short, Alex has the potential to intensify into a major hurricane, but there are plenty of roadblocks that make this only a 10% probability in my estimation.


Figure 2. Skill of computer model forecasts for Atlantic named storms during 2009. OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; NOGAPS=Navy Operational Global Prediction System model; UKMET+United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; CMC=Canadian GEM model; TVCN=one of the consensus models that lends together all (or most) of the above models; BAMM=Beta and Advection Model (Medium Layer.) Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2009 verification report.

[Evil Jeremy]

Whoofta. Cat 2 in Southern Texas. Its a possibility. As far north as the models want to trend though, I still think that the most likely result is a landfall near the Mexico/Texas border, maybe as a Cat 1. It all really depends on when that upcoming through arrives. The NHC cone will defiantly move north at the next full advisory, but Alex is not moving North enough to follow the latest GFS/GFDL/HWRF runs. It might look like it is slowly moving north right now, but I believe it is just image trickery on the eyes from the storm's rotation. We will see though. Texas is by no mean out of the woods. This will be an interesting week, that is all that's certain.