ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[CourierPR]

Her direction of movement seems to be unchanged to my eyes.

[HURAKAN]

Recon has not found any west winds through the pass. It could be Bonnie has lost her LLC

Maybe it's further south

[jlauderdal]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html


she up against the ridge now....and made the turn....might even turn some more given the ridge....hopefully it will spare mainland FL and go through the straits....

Is that statement from you or the NHC?

NHC has it 305 so i guess the turn will continue in a holding pattern

[SouthFloridawx]

Reformation of the Center under the main area of convection? It's possible, since she's still a weak Tropical Storm...

[HURAKAN]

Round convection associated with tropical waves/storms have fooled me a lot in the past. Sometimes, it looks too good to be true, holds to be true!!

[ericinmia]

All things considered, Bonnie appears to finally be getting organized.... even rotation is starting to increase.
It always peaks my interest when storms reach this area...
The gulf stream has a rich history of being a storms best friend (everything else neutral), whether that be 5mph increase... or a 110+mph increase "36-48hrs" (labor day 1935).

At the least she should be fun to keep an eye on... and some interesting weather tomorrow!
-Eric

[SFLcane]

Her direction of movement seems to be unchanged to my eyes.

Is it unchanged i posted the motion a few posts back NW @ 16mph

[Ivanhater]

Reformation of the Center under the main area of convection? It's possible, since she's still a weak Tropical Storm...

That would be the best bet if she lost her old one. Recon has not found it yet.

[supercane]

Maybe it's further south

Probably on the SW edge of the convection, as it has been over the last 12-24hr. Winds thus far pretty weak (although N/NE quadrant not yet examined), and no signs of pressure fall so far to suggest the rapid intensification some have progged.

[SouthFloridawx]

Reformation of the Center under the main area of convection? It's possible, since she's still a weak Tropical Storm...

That would be the best bet if she lost her old one. Recon has not found it yet.

What a mess for forecaster if that's the case... lol

[funster]

2am..

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR

Speedy little storm.

[jlauderdal]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html


she up against the ridge now....and made the turn....might even turn some more given the ridge....hopefully it will spare mainland FL and go through the straits....

the weather is mainly to the north so at this point it doesnt matter too much, you had this big turn 6 hours ago, meanwhile it keeps on its heading, you get the persistence award though...

Look at the steering layer map.....pretty evident....thank you for the persistence award I earned it...

i dont see how 305 denotes your turn but congrats on the award from the turn committee

[chaser1]

Hey folks...., am a long time "lurker" here in S2K ( though active on other site forums ); Have chased and tracked hurricanes for years, but have got to admit am just dumbfounded with Bonnie. Have never seen such a small storm with such a small anticyclone and so closely sandwiched by ULL, yet still surviving. Moreso, have seen every kind of "false eye" pop out of a static sat. pic, yet cannot help but believe that we must be looking at an eye feature. Going fully against this storms short history and general upper air conditions, I can't help but get "Andrew" satellite flashbacks just looking at this storm as it now seemingly takes aim at mainland S. Florida.

Certainly not a Cat. 4 or 5, but after watching Bonnie eat shear and dry air for much of the day, can hardly believe that we may very well have a minimal hurricane on our doorstep ( Pembroke Pines, Fl. ). Of course, even if such intensification verifies, given Bonnie's small size envelope..... and sudden surge of upper level shear could just as quickly decouple such a small system. Can't wait for recon to finally "shoot" the CDO!

[brunota2003]

I see a nice, recent, convective burst about right overtop of the center, and I believe that may partly be responsible for the northward lift. I wouldn't be surprised to see convection wane down during the day, while clustering near/over the llc, then once it has reined in the convection and gotten more organized, the convection should redevelop deeply. Note: I'm not a promet, just a user, so take what I have to say with a grain of salt!

ad to dig all the way back to page 87 (a little after 12 pm) to find my post...it is still relevant.

[americanre1]

305 is more west than 315 because 270 is due west and 360 is due north so it has made a slight turn to the w instead of NW not much but a little.

[boca]

I don't think that turn will happen because it seems to be in the stream of the ULL.Look at which direction the clouds are moving over the peninsula SE to NW. I think that convection ball will be right on top of mainland South Florida later today.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[chris1985]

she up against the ridge now....and made the turn....might even turn some more given the ridge....hopefully it will spare mainland FL and go through the straits....[/quote]

the weather is mainly to the north so at this point it doesnt matter too much, you had this big turn 6 hours ago, meanwhile it keeps on its heading, you get the persistence award though... [/quote]

Look at the steering layer map.....pretty evident....thank you for the persistence award I earned it... [/quote]

i dont see how 305 denotes your turn but congrats on the award from the turn committee [/quote]

[Ivanhater]

There she is



Doesnt seem to be the lowest pressure though so I wonder what they find in the convection

[RDL]

I am in Florida and NEED to get back to NYC today. I have the option of flying out on flights leaving Ft. Lauderdale between 6am until 9pm. Can anyone tell me what time would be best to try for. I have not been keeping up with this storm (obviously) and have no idea exact time for landfall, etc. Any info would be greatly appreciated! thanks.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

This storm looks good for a 40 MP TS. Would you guys expect it to take a Westerly track, possibly wsw track once it really gets into the ridge? It's looking decent right now and i expect a bit of RI before Fla landfall.