ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[deltadog03]

Having to fill in today at work....which way this guy moving? 300 or so?

[KWT]

Convection is indeed picking up just in time for recon to get in there, no doubt though is is a sign of things to come, conditions aloft are just too condusive for this not to ramp up over the next few days into probably a hurricane...

Also great big feeder band there...

[cycloneye]

Having to fill in today at work....which way this guy moving? 300 or so?

The 4 PM CDT advisory had it at 300,but recon is on route so we will know for sure the exact position and movement.

[Evil Jeremy]

Having to fill in today at work....which way this guy moving? 300 or so?

Looking like that, but slow at the moment.

[KWT]

Having to fill in today at work....which way this guy moving? 300 or so?

Yeah more or less though it is wobbling about a little still, the system really is starting to try and pop some cells now again...watch them slowly cover the system again over the next 12hrs as we head into Dmax, this is just the first signs of life.

[ROCK]

you cant just throw out the old GFS because well its old can you? all of the 12z models shifted north....if they keep doing it tonight the enitre TX coastline and part of LA will be in the cone IMO...Hell even the Ops run shifted north....I expect to see shifts in small increments with no wild swings in the models...the trend has been north today plain and simple...I dont see the issue...

[Ikester]

This is probably jumping the gun quite a bit, but if you ramp the vis loop up as high as it will go you can get a good feel for direction. Also, look at the center. Does anybody else see what appears to be an eye-like feature trying to form?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[ozonepete]

Look at the upper level anticyclonic flow. This will not be lacking for a great upper level exhaust system. It really seems like this could make major status fairly quickly once it gets a hundred miles offshore.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-avn.html

[Ikester]

Man, convection is blossoming!

[johngaltfla]

Local weather station just updated. They said that it is going to make landfall south of Brownsville Texas and that is great news for those of us on the La. coast.

Don't think you guys are out of the woods yet. Still alot of time for things to change.

Agreed. Let's wait for the LLC to hit the gulf AND the storm to strengthen before we start predicting anything. This appears to be another wait and see type of night and by the 0500 or 1100 ET updates we should have a good idea where it is going.

[Tireman4]

I was thinking that maybe it would be Tuesday or early Wednesday before we know. Maybe I am totally wrong. That is what Wxman 57 first stated....but what do I know...


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[Evil Jeremy]

This is probably jumping the gun quite a bit, but if you ramp the vis loop up as high as it will go you can get a good feel for direction. Also, look at the center. Does anybody else see what appears to be an eye-like feature trying to form?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Not an eye yet. Just convection trying to wrap around the center as it comes off land.

[ozonepete]

Local weather station just updated. They said that it is going to make landfall south of Brownsville Texas and that is great news for those of us on the La. coast.

Don't think you guys are out of the woods yet. Still alot of time for things to change.

Agreed. Let's wait for the LLC to hit the gulf AND the storm to strengthen before we start predicting anything. This appears to be another wait and see type of night and by the 0500 or 1100 ET updates we should have a good idea where it is going.

Right. The 00Z model runs should tell us a lot more. I also, like many others here, expect a track shift to the east - how much is the question.

[clfenwi]

Last year, the best performing models at the 3 - 4 day forecast range were the GFS and the Canadian

..... What? Really? I am not doubting Jeff, but wow, I didn't think it improved that much from the popcorn entertainment it was previously. Or is it still?

(edit to close a parentheses)

This has come up a couple of times in the models thread (see here for the pertinent table from the 2009 verification report.)

One thing I didn't note in my original comment was that the extended periods for 2009 has a very low number of cases. The number of (homogeneous) 72, 96, and 120 hours forecasts were 27, 19, and 10, respectively (corresponding numbers for 2008 were 115, 88, and 63). Also, most of those cases came from one storm, Bill.

[Evil Jeremy]

Recon is descending to operational altitude. now below 1000 meters. Time to see what is really going on with Alex. My guess, they already find a strong TD or weak TS, or they will before they leave the system tonight.

[Air Force Met]

Local weather station just updated. They said that it is going to make landfall south of Brownsville Texas and that is great news for those of us on the La. coast.

I hope you realize that every radio station...and every TV station (with VERY few exceptions) are only going to give you the official NHC forecast...not their own opinion. So...when they say it is going south of BRO, that is what the NHC is saying at the current time...and that is subject to change...hence all the consternation on the board among the models and which one is right.

I THINK you are in the clear...but do not count on it because a local weather station says so.

[Sanibel]

Just emerging now right on time. The upper outflow should wind it up quickly like a top.

[allicat1214]

Local weather station just updated. They said that it is going to make landfall south of Brownsville Texas and that is great news for those of us on the La. coast.

I hope you realize that every radio station...and every TV station (with VERY few exceptions) are only going to give you the official NHC forecast...not their own opinion. So...when they say it is going south of BRO, that is what the NHC is saying at the current time...and that is subject to change...hence all the consternation on the board among the models and which one is right.

I THINK you are in the clear...but do not count on it because a local weather station says so.

Yes, particularly when the NHC even said in their own discussion of their latest track....

THE PIVOTAL QUESTION FOR THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST TRACK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS TO HINGE
ON THE STRENGTH OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THE MODELS THAT SHOW A WEAKER RIDGE...SUCH AS THE CMC/GFS/HWRF...
ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND
NORTH AND APPROACH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST IN SEVERAL DAYS.
OTHER MODELS...SUCH AS THE ECMWF/UKMET/NOGAPS...HAVE A STRONGER
RIDGE AND KEEP ALEX MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST INTO
MEXICO. OVERALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE. SINCE THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD...THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS THOUGHT TO BE OF BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

and if any local tv/radio mets don't say this.....and in a 20-sec time span many don't have time to......they aren't telling the whole truth!! And that is why I like to find out for myself and not get it interpreted for me by someone with a time constraint and a 21-year-old producer who doesn't know what's going on....

[KWT]

Local weather station just updated. They said that it is going to make landfall south of Brownsville Texas and that is great news for those of us on the La. coast.

Don't think you guys are out of the woods yet. Still alot of time for things to change.

Agreed. Let's wait for the LLC to hit the gulf AND the storm to strengthen before we start predicting anything. This appears to be another wait and see type of night and by the 0500 or 1100 ET updates we should have a good idea where it is going.

Indeed, its going to be very interesting to watch just what happens tonight with this system, I think the fact convection is starting to light-up around the systems circulation is very telling that things are starting to get going now...I don't think it will be long before have TS Alex again.

[Raininfyr]

Local weather station just updated. They said that it is going to make landfall south of Brownsville Texas and that is great news for those of us on the La. coast.

I hope you realize that every radio station...and every TV station (with VERY few exceptions) are only going to give you the official NHC forecast...not their own opinion. So...when they say it is going south of BRO, that is what the NHC is saying at the current time...and that is subject to change...hence all the consternation on the board among the models and which one is right.

I THINK you are in the clear...but do not count on it because a local weather station says so.

It wasn't me saying we were clear, I am keeping up with what is going on and will not take any chances! I appreciate the comments for sure and will watch closely.