ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[setxsunshine]

Now that I'm looking at the models, I myself am starting to wonder more if this has the potential of a direct hit on the USA. You see the turn to the right just as it approaches the US Coast. Can you imagine how crazy this board is going to be the day before, wondering, "Is it going to turn"?

Hello everyone...I've been lurking for a while but wanted to respond to this thought 'Is it going to turn'.
I see some tell others not to worry, trust the forcasts that say it will turn, etc.
BUT, seeing that monster keep tracking toward you, it is very difficult to NOT worry.
After experiencing Rita and Ike, I totally understand the worry and uncertainty of whether it will actually turn or not. I remember specifically our very experienced local met saying that Ike would NOT enter the gulf and not be a threat to our area. Unfortunately, he was wrong.
That is not disrespect to any professional met. I greatly appreciate the work they do. They work with the models and info they have. My point is, that sometimes the models and info they work with get it wrong. I would not like the job of deciding if an evacuation should be called or not, so I respect those in authority that have to make those decisions.
I'm not trying to spread doom and gloom. I listen to our local mets, value their advice, but Ike taught me that, until I see it curve or turn with my own eyes, I'm not going to put total trust in a model run. Too many things can change at any given time. Like one of our local mets says when asked where will it make landfall...'when it makes landfall, we'll know'.

[plasticup]

This whole panic trip is completely unnecessary. It's going to look silly when Earl passes 100 miles east of the Outer Banks. I guess I just don't buy it.

Some of the models are showing a 916 mbar, 155 knot Category 5 hurricane. Even 100 miles away the storm surge could obliterate islands.

I won't tear into the rest of your post because I'm sure others will.

[BigB0882]

Looks on track according to this...Very strong

Considering this was made at 1pm today, it should be verifying. How about a track from 3 days ago? Tracks made within the last 24 hours should almost always be "on."

[T'Bonz]

"Although I am praying for the east coast. I lived in Pittsburgh when a TS, I forget which one, in around 1972, brought floods to our area and it rained heavy for days."

40 days and nights?

As a teen, it sure seemed like it rained for that many days and nights! We were stuck inside and bored out of our gourds.

[Sean in New Orleans]

paintplaye, you don't have to worry about me watching wobbles. I've followed these babies wayyy too long to follow wobbles. I drove myself crazy watching wobbles and learned that lesson over 15 years ago!!

[Stephanie]

This whole panic trip is completely unnecessary. It's going to look silly when Earl passes 100 miles east of the Outer Banks. I guess I just don't buy it. There have been dozens of threats in the past and very few have actually materialized. I also doubt it will be as strong as they forecast it to be once it nears the east coast. Probably a Cat 2 at most near N.C. due to decreasing water temperatures and increasing shear/dry air. Remember what happened to Cat 5 Isabel as it was getting close to the east coast.

The problem is that if there is no concern, complete complacency, we'd have a bigger disaster than if no one did worry. It only takes one - look at Katrina.

As you stated further, noone wants this to hit anyone and the thrill does turn into horror once one of these storms does affect a population. A Cat 2 up here is a big deal and yes, it could very well end up on the eastern side of the cone. Hopefully that is the case, but what if it doesn't?

[jes]

When a powerful storm is headed for the Northern Gulf coast I go ahead a make motel reservations a good 3 days in advance. That time is now for you on the Eastern coast. Just cancel the reservations 24 hours in advance if it turns out the storm is not going to hit your area. If you wait until your city is the mark it will be too late. You'll never get a reservation.
Stay safe.

[paintplaye]

[wxman57]

This whole panic trip is completely unnecessary. It's going to look silly when Earl passes 100 miles east of the Outer Banks. I guess I just don't buy it.

Some of the models are showing a 916 mbar, 155 knot Category 5 hurricane. Even 100 miles away the storm surge could obliterate islands.

I won't tear into the rest of your post because I'm sure others will.

If it passes 100 miles offshore there will be no storm surge on the coast. There may be large waves impacting the east coast, causing tides above normal, though.

There is a lot of uncertainty as to how close to the east coast Earl will pass. If it's more than about 50 miles offshore, then hurricane force winds will stay offshore and the east coast will be brushed by TS winds. The heaviest rain wouldn't penetrate very far inland unless the core moves into the coast.

Of course, if the track is off by 100-150 miles, then it could be a very damaging hurricane hit probably on NC and possibly southern New England. Won't really be able to tell for sure for another 2 days.

[Weather Watcher]

"Although I am praying for the east coast. I lived in Pittsburgh when a TS, I forget which one, in around 1972, brought floods to our area and it rained heavy for days."

40 days and nights?

As a teen, it sure seemed like it rained for that many days and nights! We were stuck inside and bored out of our gourds.

I aggree

[HURAKAN]

latest

[plasticup]

Now that I'm looking at the models, I myself am starting to wonder more if this has the potential of a direct hit on the USA. You see the turn to the right just as it approaches the US Coast. Can you imagine how crazy this board is going to be the day before, wondering, "Is it going to turn"?

HWRF shows the eye wall passing over Cape Hatteras in ~90 hours. Granted, that particular model shows only a Category 1 storm, but still. Direct hit is a possibility; it wouldn't take much.

[paintplaye]

paintplaye, you don't have to worry about me watching wobbles. I've followed these babies wayyy too long to follow wobbles. I drove myself crazy watching wobbles and learned that lesson over 15 years ago!!

Haha yea I was just saying for the general public because I know I have done that myself and it will kill you and only make you foolish.

[bzukajo]

Now that I'm looking at the models, I myself am starting to wonder more if this has the potential of a direct hit on the USA. You see the turn to the right just as it approaches the US Coast. Can you imagine how crazy this board is going to be the day before, wondering, "Is it going to turn"?

Hello everyone...I've been lurking for a while but wanted to respond to this thought 'Is it going to turn'.
I see some tell others not to worry, trust the forcasts that say it will turn, etc.
BUT, seeing that monster keep tracking toward you, it is very difficult to NOT worry.
After experiencing Rita and Ike, I totally understand the worry and uncertainty of whether it will actually turn or not. I remember specifically our very experienced local met saying that Ike would NOT enter the gulf and not be a threat to our area. Unfortunately, he was wrong.
That is not disrespect to any professional met. I greatly appreciate the work they do. They work with the models and info they have. My point is, that sometimes the models and info they work with get it wrong. I would not like the job of deciding if an evacuation should be called or not, so I respect those in authority that have to make those decisions.
I'm not trying to spread doom and gloom. I listen to our local mets, value their advice, but Ike taught me that, until I see it curve or turn with my own eyes, I'm not going to put total trust in a model run. Too many things can change at any given time. Like one of our local mets says when asked where will it make landfall...'when it makes landfall, we'll know'.

I wish there was a like button here. Well said.

[jinftl]

Earl had been gradually turning more wnw based on the headings for each update. As a reference, 270 deg is a due west heading, 315 degrees is exactly northwest, 360 degrees is due north...


headings by update:

9pm Monday = 300 degrees
7pm Monday = 290 degrees
5pm Monday = 290 degrees
3pm Monday = 285 degrees


If this isn't evidence of a gradual transition to a wnw and getting close to a nw heading, not sure what is. If it moves another 15 degrees in heading like it did from 3pm to 9pm today, Earl will be heading northwest. The forecast has been...and the reality is panning out...of a gradual...yet consistent bend to the north. It is happening.

It's steady moving WNW...I've been waiting for a turn to the NW all day. Don't see it yet, I'm afraid.

The NHC track still indicates a NW turn that hasn't happened yet...Im sure it will shortly though. I hope.

[Ivanhater]

[Sean in New Orleans]

Maybe I'm reading into things incorrectly, but, I see no sense of panic whatsoever thus far on this board...oh, I've seen panic on here. It's not happening right now...you want to see panic....go into archives and read the Katrina threads (pre and post storm!!!) That's panic. This isn't panic. This is casual conversation and thoughts on a powerful hurricane out there where some are considering following through on beginning plans for a storm...that's not panic and that isn't dumb. Here's hoping Earl passes not only 100 miles E of the Coast....hey, I'm for 200 miles E of the Coast! We're watching.

[Weather Watcher]

http://freeuploadimages.org/images/pms1m6hfv98o69099npn.jpg

latest

Impressive!

[wxman57]

Oh, and the northerly "turn" isn't forecast to materialize until Wednesday afternoon. Until then, you should notice a very slight heading change to a more NW track from WNW. The slight W or WNW wobbles you see over periods of an hour or two are meaningless. Look at 6 or 12hr motion to get an idea of the true heading.

[ozonepete]

Now that I'm looking at the models, I myself am starting to wonder more if this has the potential of a direct hit on the USA. You see the turn to the right just as it approaches the US Coast. Can you imagine how crazy this board is going to be the day before, wondering, "Is it going to turn"?

HWRF shows the eye wall passing over Cape Hatteras in ~90 hours. Granted, that particular model shows only a Category 1 storm, but still. Direct hit is a possibility; it wouldn't take much.

The 00Z model runs come out around 11PM EDT. They will be REALLY important as they'll tell us if there's more of a shift west or not. Each model run now will be more significant as to what happens on the east coast. But until this next model output, there's no need to panic.