ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[jinftl]

I guess the difference was that when a Cat 5 Doomsday scenario was closing in on New Orleans...just hours away....the dye had already been cast. With Earl, the storm is moving away from the islands and is only a watching game. No watches or warnings for the U.S. mainland. The current 3% chance of hurricane force winds in NYC is just that....time will tell.

Maybe I'm reading into things incorrectly, but, I see no sense of panic whatsoever thus far on this board...oh, I've seen panic on here. It's not happening right now...you want to see panic....go into archives and read the Katrina threads (pre and post storm!!!) That's panic. This isn't panic. This is casual conversation and thoughts on a powerful hurricane out there where some are considering following through on beginning plans for a storm...that's not panic and that isn't dumb. Here's hoping Earl passes not only 100 miles E of the Coast....hey, I'm for 200 miles E of the Coast! We're watching.

[TheBurn]

[Dean4Storms]

>>I just don't see any of the doom and gloom I keep reading.

I don't necessarily disagree with you. But then again, you didn't see a storm season in '05 or '08 after the first cool fronts came through before Katrina and Rita then Gustav and Ike respectively .

As for Dean's point, the 5:00pm Discussion on Early clearly states:

THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED AS EARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

So it's not really supposed to do anything funky NW for a day or so.

Was this me you are referencing? Maybe you confused me with someone else.

In my post a while back I talked about the troughs that swing through the Great Lakes on the 18z GFS. The first one doesn't turn Earl NE it takes the 2nd one to do so once he's north of 30N. I'm well aware that Earl is still currently stair stepping as he begins to round the subtropical ridge he's been riding along for days now.

[Dean4Storms]

This what I was talking about.......

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/cgi-bin/mode ... es/gfs_slp

[plasticup]

The latest WV images show some dry air intruding northeast. Not close enough to reach the core, but something to keep an eye on.

[jes]

Earl looks huge! Is he as large as Katrina?

[TheBurn]

[Scorpion]

Earl looks huge! Is he as large as Katrina?

Lol, not even close. Katrina would eat him for breakfast.

[hurricaneCW]

This whole panic trip is completely unnecessary. It's going to look silly when Earl passes 100 miles east of the Outer Banks. I guess I just don't buy it. There have been dozens of threats in the past and very few have actually materialized. I also doubt it will be as strong as they forecast it to be once it nears the east coast. Probably a Cat 2 at most near N.C. due to decreasing water temperatures and increasing shear/dry air. Remember what happened to Cat 5 Isabel as it was getting close to the east coast.

The problem is that if there is no concern, complete complacency, we'd have a bigger disaster than if no one did worry. It only takes one - look at Katrina.

As you stated further, noone wants this to hit anyone and the thrill does turn into horror once one of these storms does affect a population. A Cat 2 up here is a big deal and yes, it could very well end up on the eastern side of the cone. Hopefully that is the case, but what if it doesn't?

You may be right about complacency but I think there would be complacency no matter what. People living on the east coast north of florida very rarely get a hurricane landfall, especially one above a Cat 1. I think even if it was projected to hit, many people would still think that it's not going to happen because it just doesn't. This is especially true for those living north of the Carolinas. I agree that a Cat 2 up here would be a huge deal because we do not have the resources to deal with such a strong hurricane.

The buildings, the structures are nowhere near as stable as those who frequently receive tropical storms and hurricanes. The population is massive compared to the gulf coast/Florida. Dozens of people would die evacuating. Living in Jersey, the rush hour traffic is awful, now imagine if half the state had to evacuate, total chaos. Anyway, I feel that over hype of a storm is unnecessary and very little attention paid to a storm is also pretty bad.

[dixiebreeze]

Seriously, does anyone on this board (pro met or otherwise) know the climatological reasons behind Hurricane Charley's abrupt turn into the southwest coast of Florida in August 2004? I've not been able to find any answers on the Internet.

[GCANE]

Core temp is now a levels that would support a Cat 5 in the Atlantic.

Doesn't look like an ERC is anywhere started yet.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t24hrs.gif

IMHO, core is settling down to a more steady state from today's run up.

This should allow downdrafts from the wobbles to dissipate and in-feeds to get re-established.

He may make a run for it early in the morning; at least to a strong Cat 4.

[CrazyC83]

Is that dry air over the Northeast supposed to stay or disappear?

[cpdaman]

wxman or gpickett do you have a 3hr heading fix...

[psyclone]

hurricanecw i definitely agree with your sentiment... the whole panic thing may be overdone at this juncture and the most likely scenario is for the cyclone to remain offshore. however, some concern is warranted since it is possible the storm could make a direct impact somewhere on the east coast. perhaps this is a bit of hurricane roulette. on one hand the odds appear to favor coastal residents by a fairly wide margin but if the long shot comes in you better be ready... that said the scenario you described is the most likely outcome imo. good luck to everyone and east coasters... please treat the waves like girls at the strip club...look but don't touch. too many goofballs are getting in over their heads... literally.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Scorpion]

Seriously, does anyone on this board (pro met or otherwise) know the climatological reasons behind Hurricane Charley's abrupt turn into the southwest coast of Florida in August 2004? I've not been able to find any answers on the Internet.

Trough??

[Annie Oakley]

Please pay attention to TheBurn's graphics. Every picture tells a story.

[Stephanie]

I guess the difference was that when a Cat 5 Doomsday scenario was closing in on New Orleans...just hours away....the dye had already been cast. With Earl, the storm is moving away from the islands and is only a watching game. No watches or warnings for the U.S. mainland. The current 3% chance of hurricane force winds in NYC is just that....time will tell.

Yes. Katrina's awesome power wasn't apparent until hours before landfall. Noone thought she was going to be a monster until it was too late.

Now it is time for watchful waiting and biting fingernails. Panic will start probably Wednesday.

[plasticup]

Earl looks huge!

Eh, not especially. I remember Hurricane Dean covering the entire western Caribbean Sea. Or compare to Floyd, which was a pretty large fella at times.

[dixiebreeze]

Scorpion, don't think that was it. Nothing like that in the forecast far as I can find out.

[RL3AO]