ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Nimbus]

Take a look at the big picture with the WV loop. The convection kicking up over west Texas marks the western edge of the anticyclone high over the gulf. We may not see a linear track if Alex migrates around the western periphery of the high. 4 pm the track was 300 now probably 315. There is an ULL moving NW toward the Bahamas that probably will border the eastern side of the gulf high. Looks like a bad setup that will result in a dangerous storm.

Take a look at a higher res vis loop (enhanced).

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/DATA/RT/na-wv-loop.html

There is actually an upper low over east TX. That will erode the ridge in a hurry.

Moving east like a planetary gear.

[KWT]

CrazyC83, certainly that has been suggested by at least a few of the GFS ensembles and I'm sure there have been other runs that have been calling for that. I'm not totally sold on a Mexico hit yet though, I've been favouring it but I think the recent shift north of the models in general towards a possible Texas system has my attention, at least for now.

[Portastorm]

The ridge on the western end must be breaking down more quickly than anticipated. Current real time weather in west Texas shows a radar like a Christmas tree. The precip has encroached further east into the state than was anticipated even yesterday.

[Dean4Storms]

I got the center just now crossing the coastline with convection popping on the southern edge. Looks to be consolidating.

[CrazyC83]

CrazyC83, certainly that has been suggested by at least a few of the GFS ensembles and I'm sure there have been other runs that have been calling for that. I'm not totally sold on a Mexico hit yet though, I've been favouring it but I think the recent shift north of the models in general towards a possible Texas system has my attention, at least for now.

I do agree this will likely be a Texas system, but maybe after a Mexican final landfall and a move up.

[sphelps8681]

So does that mean that is where the weakness will occur and Alex will draw there? Please help me understand.

Thanks

[KWT]

Take a look at a higher res vis loop (enhanced).

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/DATA/RT/na-wv-loop.html

There is actually an upper low over east TX. That will erode the ridge in a hurry.

Yeah that upper low has moved slowly east over the last 24hrs, if that continues and doesn't gain latitude then the ridge will be forced further east..of course its a fine line because if it rides over the upper high it'll probably help to re-strengthen the ridge as it moves away, probably is why the models have had a tough time because its a fine line thats for sure...

That WV loop really has me wondering though about whether the ECM may now be too far south, the more northerly models may well have the right call afterall...

[chzzdekr81]

Alright, NHC updated. Now lets wait to see if the track will change any at 10.

[ConvergenceZone]

If Alex gets into the northern part of the gulf there really isn't any good place it could make landfall. Not to mention that a system developing under an anticyclone with good outflow will intensify more.

It will intensify up to a point but as Dr Jeff Masters points out on his latest discussion, if it goes further north into Texas etc, then dry air and shear could very well keep it in check from becoming a major. That's why Jeff only gives it a 10% chance of reaching major status........That might also be why the models aren't developing it into a major for the same reasons.

[thetruesms]

Fay too. It strengthened over Florida, even producing an eye feature.

If you really want to get controversial about it, just bring up 2007 with Erin in Oklahoma

Well...in 1 day we went from high confidence to below average confidence. That's the tropics for you.

I'm pretty sure in the last 24 hours, I've felt everything about the track I had about a day ago from fairly confident to wondering if I had it pick up too much latitude to not picking up enough latitude. I've got my emotions swinging around like it's US-Algeria all over again

[Brent]

Alright, NHC updated. Now lets wait to see if the track will change any.

NHC track won't update til 10

[CrazyC83]

Alright, NHC updated. Now lets wait to see if the track will change any.

NHC track won't update til 10

Not unless they find a TS and decide on a special advisory (more likely would be just a simple update though).

[chzzdekr81]

Alright, NHC updated. Now lets wait to see if the track will change any.

NHC track won't update til 10

My bad, thanks for telling me that.

[KWT]

Fay too. It strengthened over Florida, even producing an eye feature.

If you really want to get controversial about it, just bring up 2007 with Erin in Oklahoma

Well...in 1 day we went from high confidence to below average confidence. That's the tropics for you.

I'm pretty sure in the last 24 hours, I've felt everything about the track I had about a day ago from fairly confident to wondering if I had it pick up too much latitude to not picking up enough latitude. I've got my emotions swinging around like it's US-Algeria all over again

Cor yeah I think alot of us have been coming and going, even most of the Mets on here seem uncertain about the exact path it will take.

By the way recon now finding pressures down to 998mbs, which would be rather impressive for a 30kts TD if thats what it turns out to be...

[Ivanhater]

997 KWT

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like Recon was just now hitting the center.

[Ivanhater]

You know what they say about looking at the outer band for future movement..well take a look..trough really digging

[cycloneye]

Hey peeps 992 mbs the pressure and plane has not reached center.

[Ivanhater]

991.6!!

234330 1916N 09109W 9244 00612 9916 216 137 050020 022 029 006 03

[KWT]

Woah has people seen the latest from recon...