ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[vacanechaser]

Long range from San Juan depicts a very well-organized hurricane:

certainly a well developed hurricane and inner core with a moat developing... reminds me of charley and the break, moat, around the center...

[UpTheCreek]

This is a busy thread and just as a reminder to folks, if you are replying to someone that has posted a large graphic, could you at least remove the image tags so the big image doesn't have to be repeated from post to post? Give the folks with slow connections a break, not to mention S2k's servers!

[TexasF6]

He's still moving WNW.....IMO...

[ozonepete]

I posted my questions on the regular Talkin' Tropics forum yesterday, but received no responses, so am hoping one of you experts can give an opinion.

I need your feedback on expected flying conditions out of La Guardia, NY, at noon on Friday, Sept 3.

I can only monitor current models, but even if Earl stays offshore of most of the U.S. NE, what level of offshoot winds/rain could shut down LGA?

Thanks

That is REALLY problematic. Even if the latest NHC forecast holds, there should be some rain and pretty gusty winds at LaGuardia so there could be huge delays. If I had that flight, I'd change it to Thursday or Saturday. My sister is supposed to fly out on Friday and I just advised her against it. I know it's a huge inconvenience, but you have to be realistic. Unfortunately we really won't know how close Earl will come until late tomorrow or Wednesday, so you have to play it safe. Good luck!

[Steve]

>>Isabel was a big storm, nearly as large as Katrina I believe. I think it had hurricane force winds over 100 miles out.

Yeah, Isabel was big. I think with Katrina, the expanded windfield for Tropical Storm was out over 200 miles east and west. That was sick along with the Cat-5 level surge. But I think Rita was bigger. And at one point, Gilbert in '88 was massive. Allen (80) was big at TX Landfall.

Back on topic, Earl looks like a monster storm. The SW Atlantic is showing to be the prime area for development at this point in the season.

[Javlin]

Thanks to all of you for providing some great pics, graphs, discussion and analysis of Earl. I'm in Northeast NC, and no matter what, we're gonna get pounded whether Earl makes landfall at Hatteras or not. The only good thing I can see right now is that we'll be on the west side of the wind field, but I'm starting my preps tonight. Hope this storm makes that sharp right on Wed or Thurs as forecast and stays far far away from the entire US east coast and Canada

Interesting to see Edenton NC Hurritrax on board small town on the water there once in 1976 it's my father's home town.You guys keep safe will be a close call.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like a ERC is taking place from that radar shot above!!

[HURAKAN]

Looks like a ERC is taking place from that radar shot above!!

we're about to find out, RECON taking a plunge!

[Weather Watcher]

This is a busy thread and just as a reminder to folks, if you are replying to someone that has posted a large graphic, could you at least remove the image tags so the big image doesn't have to be repeated from post to post? Give the folks with slow connections a break, not to mention S2k's servers!

oops sorry bout that

[RL3AO]

Looks like a ERC is taking place from that radar shot above!!

I don't see any signs of an ERC.

[capepoint]

[quote="hurricaneCW

You may be right about complacency but I think there would be complacency no matter what. People living on the east coast north of florida very rarely get a hurricane landfall, especially one above a Cat 1. I think even if it was projected to hit, many people would still think that it's not going to happen because it just doesn't. [/quote]
????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
Better do a little more research on North Carolina's hurricane history. It does happen here, and fairly frequently. I think that the OBX on average gets hit about every 4 years. Granted, major hurricanes (4's and 5's)are rare here, but there have been several of those too over the years. As I posted a few days ago, we frequently get storms that are not classified as a hit because the pinpoint center stays just offshore, while the western eyewall batters the coastal villages and sends floodwaters into buildings. These storms are lost to history because they do not "count" as a hit, but people suffer damage and hardship from them.

Another point to consider. Ocracoke Island is accessible by ferry only. A two and a half hour ride to the mainland in Carteret or Hyde counties, which are both subject to early road flooding, or a 45 minute ride to Hatteras, which then requires an hour drive to reach the mainland, and only then if overwash has not closed Hwy 12 which is the ONLY road leading off of the banks south of Manteo. There are not a lot of ferries availible, and operations must cease well before the storm kicks-up the sound, because the ferries must steam about 3 to 4 hours to reach a safe harbor to ride-out the storm. With the OBX crowded with people for the holiday, any evacuation call must be made very early, or it wont happen. Current forcast track has it staying about 150-200 miles off hatteras. The margine of error for NHC forcast tracks at 3 to 4 days is what??? So you see, some locations can't afford to wait for a storm to be 24 hours out before making descisions.
I don't see any panic on here, but i do see people that know the special situations that they have in their communities being rightfully concerned. I have lived on the southern outer banks for 45 years. I've seen my share of these things, and I, like anyone who has even the slightest intelligence, will monitor the situation closely until the danger has passed, and follow the instructions of the professionals. It works well here in eastern NC, because we are very-well practiced in hurricanes, despite what some people think.

[angelwing]

Maybe I'm reading into things incorrectly, but, I see no sense of panic whatsoever thus far on this board...oh, I've seen panic on here. It's not happening right now...you want to see panic....go into archives and read the Katrina threads (pre and post storm!!!) That's panic. This isn't panic. This is casual conversation and thoughts on a powerful hurricane out there where some are considering following through on beginning plans for a storm...that's not panic and that isn't dumb. Here's hoping Earl passes not only 100 miles E of the Coast....hey, I'm for 200 miles E of the Coast! We're watching.

I don't consider this panic either, just concern as you stated. We haven't been hit up here in a long time, since Floyd, and I just want to make sure all my ducks are in a row as well as I think others are also.

Now if you count worry...........

[bzukajo]

I posted my questions on the regular Talkin' Tropics forum yesterday, but received no responses, so am hoping one of you experts can give an opinion.

I need your feedback on expected flying conditions out of La Guardia, NY, at noon on Friday, Sept 3.

I can only monitor current models, but even if Earl stays offshore of most of the U.S. NE, what level of offshoot winds/rain could shut down LGA?

Thanks

That is REALLY problematic. Even if the latest NHC forecast holds, there should be some rain and pretty gusty winds at LaGuardia so there could be huge delays. If I had that flight, I'd change it to Thursday or Saturday. My sister is supposed to fly out on Friday and I just advised her against it. I know it's a huge inconvenience, but you have to be realistic. Unfortunately we really won't know how close Earl will come until late tomorrow or Wednesday, so you have to play it safe. Good luck!

My sister is supposed to fly to out of JFK on Sunday, and we are just accepting there will be delay and backlog.

[UpTheCreek]

Thanks to all of you for providing some great pics, graphs, discussion and analysis of Earl. I'm in Northeast NC, and no matter what, we're gonna get pounded whether Earl makes landfall at Hatteras or not. The only good thing I can see right now is that we'll be on the west side of the wind field, but I'm starting my preps tonight. Hope this storm makes that sharp right on Wed or Thurs as forecast and stays far far away from the entire US east coast and Canada

Interesting to see Edenton NC Hurritrax on board small town on the water there once in 1976 it's my father's home town.You guys keep safe will be a close call.

Also home to where my great Albemarle boat was built and my favorite restaurant, Waterman's Grill! Great little town, I agree!

[TheBurn]

I have to say... TWC just had a pretty 'on point' piece on the steering scenario. Not bad at all.

[UpTheCreek]

I have to say... TWC just had a pretty 'on point' piece on the steering scenario. Not bad at all.

Watched that too, not too bad!

[Steve]

>>Ocracoke Island

Ocracoke rules.

Don't know if anyone is watching the models thread, but the NAM is out to 36. Looks like it might be setting up for the brush. Too early to say yet though for sure.

(Sim Radar 00z NAM)
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Ptarmigan]

Long range from San Juan depicts a very well-organized hurricane:

Quite an impressive radar image of Earl.

[RL3AO]

Recon: 934mb extrapolated, 114kt NW side, 110 kt SE side

[CrazyC83]

Based on all the data, I would bring the intensity down to 110 kt, seeing how even the NE quad never supported Cat 4.