ATL : INVEST 90L

[Hurricane Andrew]

I have about givin up on this one. I give it a 5% chance of atill developing. I shlould switch my attention to the EPAC/CARR system.

[pepeavilenho]

[cwachal]

good morning... I see we have a weakening system with little chance of developing

[Hurricane Andrew]

Mornin'. Yeah...i think this storm is done. But...we might still have to watch for some rip currents though.

[pepeavilenho]

I thinh we've to wait 24/36 hours...By the moment no-tropical development, but everything it's possible with this system...

[KWT]

Yeah I'm calling this one done now, convecion really has decreased and its as far as ever from developing and thew waters its moving into only get cooler from now on...

[tolakram]

Perhaps.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=18

Pretty storm, and looks to me more organized ... but not more tropical at the moment. If that convection near the center can persist then the storm may have a chance, especially if it stalls near the gulf stream.



It's moving NNW with a turn to more NW expected, so in my opinion it's moving into more favorable conditions, not less.

[tailgater]

Everyone jumping off, but it looks as good as it has in a while to me. LLC looks better defined and the convection is starting to fire near the still broad but better defined center, which will/would be the only way it could develop. Ill give it till tonite before I start calling for Bones!

[tolakram]

Shear



from: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[HURAKAN]

Loop

[HURAKAN]

wind shear not a big problem at the moment

[HURAKAN]

In 3 days, the low is still expected to be more or less where it's right now.

[ronjon]

Looks more orgainzed this morning as the broad LLC is tightening up and convection has blossomed over the north half of the system and is now getting pulled CC around its west side. As SSTs warm to the west, 90L might have a chance to go subtropical - as of now, pressure is 1007 mb. The system also seems to be absorbing the moisture associated with the ULL over the carolinas.

http://weather.cod.edu/loops/Caribbean-VIS.loop.html

[HURAKAN]

12z

AL 90 2010052512 BEST 0 299N 720W 40 1005 LO

[ronjon]

thanks hurakan, pressure now 1005 mb. LLC over 25 deg C water now and only about 150 miles away to the west or northwest of 26 deg C SSTs.

[HURAKAN]

thanks hurakan, pressure now 1005 mb. LLC over 25 deg C water now and only about 150 miles away to the west or northwest of 26 deg C SSTs.

I think people are giving up too soon. For example,

24 hours before Gabrielle, 2007, formed:


1st advisory:


Yes, I know it was September, but storms can look really bad and still develop. The main problem 90L has is the dry air and we know Andrea was able to deal with that.

[HURAKAN]

[Category 5]

I wouldn't pull the plug just yet. Remember we're not talking about Tropical development, but Subtropical development, remember Andrea. Similar system.

[cwachal]

it is looking much better then it did overnight I think we may just see a named system from this storm

[JonathanBelles]

One big change from the last few days is that all of the convection is to the NW of the LLC, not the NE.