ARABIAN SEA - DEEP DEPRESSION (03A)

[DanieleItalyRm]

CYCLONE PETH CAT4:
venti di 115 nodi - 213 km/h
raffiche 140 nodi - 260 km/h
significative wave 30 feet (9mt)
937 Hpa

visible in SAT24 (Saudi Arabia)
http://www.sat24.com/sa



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[salmon123]

Targeting Karachi Again

[DanieleItalyRm]

Yesterday:



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[KWT]

This is going to be a very close call it has to be said, western side will have a direct imapct but whether the system makes landfall looks uncertain to say the least!

[vjyanand]

The Weather System over Arabian Sea
Warning no. 5
Heavy rainfall has continued to fall over some parts of Masirah Island and parts of coastal areas of Al-Sharqiya region in the past hours associated with winds up to 70km/hr. Latest Satellite images and numerical weather prediction charts indicate the tropical cyclone PHET is centered over west Arabian Sea has moved further towards North West direction. It's centre is currently located near latitude 19.3 degrees North and longitude 59.3 degrees east. PHET is around 160 km away from Masirah Island. Maximum sustained wind speed around the centre is estimated to be around 180 km/h and by which it is still classified as Category 3. The cyclone is expected to enter the land from the area between Adoqum and Masirah Island which will affect mainly the Masirah Island and the regions of Al-sharqiya and aAl-wusta with about 2 metres of storm surge over the coastal areas .
The rainy convective clouds of this cyclone (PHET) expected to extend to affect Governates of Muscat and Al-buraimi and regions of, AlDhakhlia and AlBhatinah and Al-Dhaerah within the next 48 hours
The Directorate request People in the affected areas are to take precautions on the low lands from flowing Wadis because of the heavy rain and Fishermen are also advised to be precautious as seas are expected to be rough along the

From http://www.met.gov.om/report_E.txt

[Chacor]

FKIN20 VIDP 030900
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20100603/0600Z
TCAC: NEW DELHI
TC: PHET
NR: 9
PSN: N1900 E05930
MOV: N 5 KT
C: 976 HPA
MAX WIND: 65KT

FCST PSN+6HR: 03/1200Z N1930 E05900
FCST MAX WIND+6HR: 65 KT
FCST PSN+12HR: 03/1800Z N2000 E05830
FCST MAX WIND+12HR: 60 KT
FCST PSN+18HR: 04/0000Z N2030 E05830
FCST MAX WIND+18HR: 60 KT
FCST PSN+24HR: 04/0600Z N2100 E05830
FCST MAX WIND+24HR: 60 KT

NEXT MSG: 20100603/1200Z

Down to 65 kt from IMD. Official RSMC peak intensity was 80 kt.

[Chacor]

[ocean2011]

Voice description of the case from the Met Office in Oman
http://www.aboshdg.net/up/uploads/files ... bc411d6.ra (Thursday Morning)

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Moving north

[HURAKAN]

ARB 02/2010/22 Dated: 03.06.2010

Time of issue: 1400 hours IST

Sub: Very severe cyclonic storm, ‘PHET’ over westcentral Arabian Sea.

The very severe cyclonic storm, “PHET” over westcentral Arabian Sea moved northward and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of today, 3rd June 2010 near latitude 19.00N and long. 59.50E, about 1400 km west of Mumbai, 1100 km southwest of Naliya (Kutch, Gujarat), 1050 km southwest of Karachi (Pakistan), 400 km south-southeast of Sur (Oman) and 170 km south-southeast of Masirah island (Oman).

The system continue to interact with land surface and shows sign of weakening. Available observations and numerical weather prediction models guidance suggest that the system would move slowly in a northwesterly/northerly direction for next 24 hours and cross Oman coast between latitude 200N and 210N by tomorrow the 4th June morning. It would then weaken gradually, recurve northeastwards and emerge into northwest Arabian Sea by 5th June and move towards Pakistan coast.

Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given below:

Date/Time(IST)
Position (lat. 0N/ long. 0E)
Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)

03-06-2010/1130
19.0/59.5
120-130 gusting to 140

03-06-2010/1730
19.5/59.0
120-130 gusting to 140

03-06-2010/2330
20.0/58.5
110-120 gusting to 130

04-06-2010/0530
20.5/58.5
110-120 gusting to 130

04-06-2010/1130
21.0/58.5
100-110 gusting to 120

04-06-2010/2330
22.0/59.0
100-110 gusting to 120

05-06-2010/1130
23.0/60.0
90-100 gusting to 110

05-06-.2010/2330
24.0/62.0
80-90 gusting to 110

06-06-.2010/1130
25.0/64.0
70-80 gusting to 90

Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls would occur over Saurashtra & Kutch during next 48 hrs. Squally winds with speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting 60 kmph would occur along and off Gujarat coast during same period. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off Gujarat coast and adjoining north Arabian Sea. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea off this coast.
Next bulletin will be issued at 1730 hrs IST of today, 03rd June 2010.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Chacor]

FKIN20 VIDP 031500
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20100603/1200Z
TCAC: NEW DELHI
TC: PHET
NR: 10
PSN: N2000 E05930
MOV: N 7 KT
C: 978 HPA
MAX WIND: 65KT
FCST PSN+6HR: 03/1800Z N2030 E05930
FCST MAX WIND+6HR: 65 KT
FCST PSN+12HR: 04/0000Z N2100 E05930
FCST MAX WIND+12HR: 60 KT
FCST PSN+18HR: 04/0600Z N2130 E05930
FCST MAX WIND+18HR: 60 KT
FCST PSN+24HR: 04/1200Z N2200 E05930
FCST MAX WIND+24HR: 60 KT

NEXT MSG: 20100603/1800Z

Still a 65-kt VSCS from IMD. JTWC has it as a 105-kt TC which is now forecast to barely scrape past the Omani coast.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

WTIO31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (PHET) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (PHET) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 20.0N 59.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 59.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 21.1N 59.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 22.0N 60.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 22.9N 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.8N 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 25.6N 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 27.5N 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 59.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN, HAS ACCELERATED AND TRACKED
NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ELONGATED TO THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE
TO A SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GULF OF OMAN (GOO). THE POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAIN GOOD ALTHOUGH WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) HAS INCREASED AS EVIDENCED BY THE ELONGATION. THE CYCLONE HAS
MAINTAINED A 20-NM RAGGED EYE, ENHANCING THE CURRENT POSITION FIX
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
DEMS. KNES, AND PGTW RANGING FROM T4.0 TO T6.0. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 03A IS NOW ROUNDING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST, A PRELUDE TO A NORTHEASTWARD
RECURVATURE. IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH NORTHERLY DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ARABIAN PENINSULA AS IT APPROACHES OMAN. THE
WEAKENING WILL BE ENHANCED AS TC 03A SKIRTS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS
OF OMAN AND WITH INCREASING VWS. PHET WILL THEN CROSS THE MOUTH OF
GOO EASTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, THEN
DISSIPATE INLAND BY TAU 96. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
RECURVATURE SCENARIO, HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF THE PACKAGE INCLUDING
NOGAPS, GFDN, GFS, EGRR, AND WBAR CALLS FOR A SHARP NORTHWEST
DEFLECTION DURING THE FIRST 12-36 HOURS BEFORE THE RECURVATURE - A
POSSIBLE INDICATION THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS NOT DEEP
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AN EARLY RECURVE. RECENT STORM MOTION AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY ANIMATION BOLSTER AN EARLY RECURVE SCENARIO.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.//
NNNN

[shah8]

yeah, the northwest bend is happening as a comparison from the 1530z to the 1700z enhanced infrared. The 1700z pic is actually kinda pretty and symmetric.

On second thought, that might be a trick of the eye with different kinds of maps.

[ugaap]

The Eye of Phet has become clearer and is less than 40 Kms.(25 Miles) from AL-SHARQIYA region of Oman.

[HURAKAN]

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[somethingfunny]

I don't suppose there are any webcams or ground obs in that area. Masiriyah Island is in the western eyewall it seems. I'll bet some parts of Oman are seeing more rainfall today than they usually see in an entire year....it's going to be a very close call on if it landfalls or not.