ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[Ivanhater]

[Ivanhater]

[KFDM Meteorologist]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
257 PM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

VALID 12Z FRI JUN 25 2010 - 12Z TUE JUN 29 2010



FINAL...

THE 12Z/22 GFS AND GEFS MEAN ARE CLOSER TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
DEPICTED BY THE 00Z/22 ECENS MEAN OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA DAY 6
THAN THE GEM GLOBAL AND UKMET...WHICH SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED
POSITIVE PNA PATTERN. SEE NO GOOD REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE
RELIABLE ECENS THERE...WITH THE TROUGH COMING INTO THE NORTHWEST
NOT A MAJOR POINT OF CONTENTION. COORDINATION WITH TPC ON THE LOW
IN THE GULF THIS PERIOD RESULTED IN A SLIGHTLY FASTER
FORECAST...WITH THE CIRCULATION APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
DAY 7.


CISCO

[KWT]

Looks increasingly likely then Ivanhater for a Yucatan landfall, I'd imagine if it has developed by then we'd be looking at a weak system. Wonder if the land will actually help tighten the circulation up like it did with Dolly.

[Aquawind]

Upper Texas Coast.. Bummer

[Wx_Warrior]

(for now)

Hoping 93L joins the 92L circus.

[Ivanhater]

Agreed , but I put ZERO stock in CMC.

Notice the curve north then northeast on a few of the models. i.e the Canadian? The Canadian was the best performing model in the 4 to 5 day range last year according to the NHC

[Dean4Storms]

Most of those runs are initiating the low from around 15.8N 75W, I don't put much stock in any of those solutions.

[Blown Away]

Most of those runs are initiating the low from around 15.8N 75W, I don't put much stock in any of those solutions.

I agree with you 100% and if something does develop from nothing it will have to make a big WNW jump to follow the 18z models. Currently the 18z low is moving almost due W IMO.

[KWT]

The models are being run from the wave axis region not the MLC mass, therefore I don't think the models will be that far off from the truth given they are probably only 50 miles away from where the NHC place any center, then again maybe they are a little too far north however. As ever though things need to be watched very closely.

Of course if the MLC did develop something, then the models will need chucking.

[ROCK]

Agreed , but I put ZERO stock in CMC.

Notice the curve north then northeast on a few of the models. i.e the Canadian? The Canadian was the best performing model in the 4 to 5 day range last year according to the NHC

the CMC? I know the EURO kicked all of their behinds with IKE in 2008. All forecasts show a weakening ridge due to a SV digging in the long run. This gives credence to a strong storm making a right turn and gaining lat however the EURO has been throwing out scenarios of it missing the weakness and driving it west.

More time to blob watch...nothing out there at the surface...and as always this time of day the clouds are warming as the MLC withers away...

[Ivanhater]

Yeah for 2009 Rock.

18z GFS does develop a surface low in as little as 12 hours

[antonlsu]

Love seeing a model put a cat2/3 over your house, especially right after you finished recovering from ike. Bummer

[Wx_Warrior]

Glad we are in the cross-hairs now.

[antonlsu]

Glad we are in the cross-hairs now.

Sometimes i feel being in the cross-hairs this far out is better than being bout 200 miles away from the projected path.

[Ivanhater]

Hmm..36 hours

[clfenwi]

Couple of things:

- Remember that the BAMs (and CLIPER**) are initialized from the NHC's best track, for 18Z that was 15.5 N 74.4W.

- Ivanhater is correct in pointing out the CMC was the best in the 96 and 120 hour time periods last year; as the say, you can look it up (on page 29 of the pdf). One would note two things though: It does look kind of funny that its 96 hour performance was better than its 72 hour. Also that comparision is for tropical cyclones; it does not cover the developmental stages.

** Only mentioned because it's on the SFWMD graphic.

[Ivanhater]

60 hours

[ROCK]

Couple of things:

- Remember that the BAMs (and CLIPER**) are initialized from the NHC's best track, for 18Z that was 15.5 N 74.4W.

- Ivanhater is correct in pointing out the CMC was the best in the 96 and 120 hour time periods last year; as the say, you can look it up (on page 29 of the pdf). One would note two things though: It does look kind of funny that its 96 hour performance was better than its 72 hour. Also that comparision is for tropical cyclones; it does not cover the developmental stages.

** Only mentioned because it's on the SFWMD graphic.

I really dont have time to look it up but I will take Ivan's word for it....

For the first time I think the GFS is catching on...

[Wx_Warrior]

IMO, CMC still stinks....IMO this will be La/Tex/Mex....This won't be eastern GOM. Still, those pretty beaches.