ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Hmmmmmm, yes they are

May confirm an llc is near.

[Aquawind]

LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME
IN TO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
AND EAST TO KEEP THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR REGION FOR THE
END OF THIS WEEK. SOME OTHER MODELS...LIKE THE CANADIAN AND
NOGAPS...STILL SHOW THE FRONT HANGING UP CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. BESIDES ALL THAT...WE MAY
STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME SORT OF TROPICAL OR HYBRID SYSTEM
MOVING UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PERHAPS ON THURSDAY. SO WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW...THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST WE COULD SEE OUR FIRST REAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OF THE
SEASON WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE 50S IN LEVY
COUNTY OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE MAIN CHANGES WERE TO BACK OFF ON THE RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS
PERIOD BUT STILL NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THE GFS/MEX GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
IF THE GFS AND OTHER MODELS CONTINUE THEIR TREND PUSHING THE DEEP
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...WE WILL BE ABLE TO REMOVE MENTION
OF THUNDERSTORMS COMPLETELY. FOR NOW...LEFT GENERALLY 20 PERCENT
RAIN CHANCES NORTH AND 30 PERCENT SOUTH.

I ALSO MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF TAMPA BAY WHERE THE COOLER AND
DRIER AIR IS MOST LIKELY TO TAKE HOLD. FOR NOW I STOPPED SHORT OF
SHOWING LOWS IN THE 50S FOR THE NATURE COAST...BUT DID DROP LOWS TO
BETWEEN 60 AND 65 FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

Tamps Discussion

[Evil Jeremy]

http://img201.imageshack.us/img201/7092/prog48hr.gif
48 hours

Isn't that a lot slower than many of the models are suggesting?

[cycloneye]

Where's the floater for this invest?

Is now up.

[SootyTern]

Video about possible effects of this system on South Florida from NWS:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/mfl/artic ... layer.html

[blp]

[SFLcane]

Not overly impressed with its current satellite appearence. As mentioned by some previous posters sfl may actually end up on the dry side of things with this disturbance with the heavy rainfall staying over the bahamas region.

[AtlanticWind]

Not overly impressed with its current satellite appearence. As mentioned by some previous posters sfl may actually end up on the dry side of things with this disturbance with the heavy rainfall staying over the bahamas region.

That would be nice, but none of the models show that outcome.

[AdamFirst]

I expect to wake up in the morning to find that predictions have changed for S Fl and that the rain,etc., will pass on by that area. This is not a forecast of any kind.

Not going to happen. You will get rain from this. We all will.

(disclaimer: this is not an official forecast, refer to your local National Weather Service office, etc)

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rb.html

Looks like some rotation starting,also some banding on the NE Side.

[Aquawind]

Some rain will fall but as posted earlier it looks like totals will be trending down for many..

[SouthFLTropics]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rb.html

Looks like some rotation starting,also some banding on the NE Side.

Agreed, I think we are preparing for take off...Buckle your seatbelts and make sure your chairs are in their upright position...

SFT

[boca]

I say we get very little weather out of this even here in SE Florida as this will most likely be a Bahama momma.That trough is digging down so much that its going to force 96L to move nore NE rather than N or NNE.


The preceding post is NOT an official forecast but just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[AtlanticWind]

I say we get very little weather out of this even here in SE Florida as this will most likely be a Bahama momma.That trough is digging down so much that its going to force 96L to move nore NE rather than N or NNE.


The preceding post is NOT an official forecast but just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Based on What ? The models dont reflect this at this time. maybe they will change but there is nothing base that on right now.

[Sanibel]

Convection consolidating. Could get organizing quicker now..

[SunnyThoughts]

Entire Caribbean just boiling, good luck with all the rain down south, hopefully no winds strong enough to knock out power for you guys. Keeping my fingers crossed. Good luck, and be prepared for anything, I expect recon will go tomorrow, considering the rotation and the banding.

[vbhoutex]

I say we get very little weather out of this even here in SE Florida as this will most likely be a Bahama momma.That trough is digging down so much that its going to force 96L to move nore NE rather than N or NNE.


The preceding post is NOT an official forecast but just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm beginning to agree with this scenario. It is clear the trough is digging more than I think was expected. I don't think that S/SE FL will escape the rain, but I'm trending towards a lot less than initially expected. I will not be surprised if this system, whatever it becomes, rides up the East Coast further offshore than expected, which hopefully will reduce the rain amounts.

The preceding post is NOT an official forecast but just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SouthFLTropics]

Entire Caribbean just boiling, good luck with all the rain down south, hopefully no winds strong enough to knock out power for you guys. Keeping my fingers crossed. Good luck, and be prepared for anything, I expect recon will go tomorrow, considering the rotation and the banding.

I would think that recon will go as well although will the proximity to Cuba prevent the Hunters from going. I know that Cuba sometimes relaxes its airspace for NHC flights...I wonder if the Castro's will be in a good mood...

SFT

[boca]

I say we get very little weather out of this even here in SE Florida as this will most likely be a Bahama momma.That trough is digging down so much that its going to force 96L to move nore NE rather than N or NNE.


The preceding post is NOT an official forecast but just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Based on What ? The models dont reflect this at this time. maybe they will change but there is nothing base that on right now.

I glad you asked that look at the water vapor loop and that trough is still diggging SE and the dry line is slowly advancing east. Notice the flow across Florida is not South to North but SW to NE thats why I feel this might be a non event for SE Florida. I'm willing to bet the NWS will lower the rainfall rates to mabe an inch.if I'm wrong I'll give you my address and you can serve me crow.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

[SouthFLTropics]

I say we get very little weather out of this even here in SE Florida as this will most likely be a Bahama momma.That trough is digging down so much that its going to force 96L to move nore NE rather than N or NNE.


The preceding post is NOT an official forecast but just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm beginning to agree with this scenario. It is clear the trough is digging more than I think was expected. I don't think that S/SE FL will escape the rain, but I'm trending towards a lot less than initially expected. I will not be surprised if this system, whatever it becomes, rides up the East Coast further offshore than expected, which hopefully will reduce the rain amounts.

The preceding post is NOT an official forecast but just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

You guys might be right (and I hope you are) but I would suspect that the front may stall out at some point and maybe back up. A front like this rarely makes it all the way through the state at this time of year...

SFT