ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[LaBreeze]

Another storm this has some similarities with is Audrey, which was likely a pressure/wind mismatch as well (I don't believe it was anywhere near Cat 4 at peak).

I can attest to the devastation that Audrey did - it felt like a Cat 4, although I was only 5 at the time.

[cycloneye]

Slowing down a little bit.

LATCUR = 19.2N LONCUR = 91.1W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 7KT

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... 280014.txt

[CrazyC83]

Another storm this has some similarities with is Audrey, which was likely a pressure/wind mismatch as well (I don't believe it was anywhere near Cat 4 at peak).

I can attest to the devastation that Audrey did - it felt like a Cat 4, although I was only 5 at the time.

I don't believe Audrey was any more than a Cat 2 at landfall, which goes to show how much damage even "weaker" hurricanes can do especially when their windfield is very large.

[hurricanefloyd5]

WOW RECON FOUND A 995.2 MB PRESSURE AND AA 50MPH SURFACE WIND

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

[JTE50]

enhanced IR shows convection wrapping around the center.

[ozonepete]

Slowing down a little bit.

LATCUR = 19.2N LONCUR = 91.1W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 7KT

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... 280014.txt

That's also bad news. The slower it moves, the more time it'll have to strengthen.

[vaffie]

Convection is building in the center of the system so quickly now that combined with the surprisingly low pressure, I wouldn't be surprised if it's not a hurricane by the end of the night!!

[ROCK]

Convection is building in the center of the system so quickly now that combined with the surprisingly low pressure, I wouldn't be surprised if it's not a hurricane by the end of the night!!

that would be utterly amazing if that were to happen....I say its a TS now and will be a strong TS tonight...Hurricane tomorrow...

[Dean4Storms]

Slowing down a little bit.

LATCUR = 19.2N LONCUR = 91.1W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 7KT

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... 280014.txt

I'm surprised with the 300, looked more like 310 a while ago. Maybe stair stepping around the SW quadrant of the ridge which would also explain the slower forward speed.

[jaxfladude]

This what I love/hate or hate/love about the weather!
Stay safe y'all.

[KWT]

I'm surprised with the 300, looked more like 310 a while ago. Maybe stair stepping around the SW quadrant of the ridge which would also explain the slower forward speed.

Yah though I think that is the 12hr mean possibly, as there was near due west motion. I'm not surprised by the slowdown though, which probably means a greater risk for those further north as well as longer time to strengthen.

Vortex confirmed 991mbs, thats pretty amazing, gotta surely b a 35kts TS!

[KWT]

Convection is building in the center of the system so quickly now that combined with the surprisingly low pressure, I wouldn't be surprised if it's not a hurricane by the end of the night!!

I'd be surprised if that happened, its an amazing system and the convection is building but its still gotta som strengthening to do and some re-organising, that being said 12-24hrs would be the range for that IMO right now.

Will be interesting to see how low the pressures go with this one when it strengthens. Wouldn't surprise me to see this get close to major status given it will probably have quite a lot of time over water.

[ozonepete]

I'm surprised with the 300, looked more like 310 a while ago. Maybe stair stepping around the SW quadrant of the ridge which would also explain the slower forward speed.

Yah though I think that is the 12hr mean possibly, as there was near due west motion. I'm not surprised by the slowdown though, which probably means a greater risk for those further north as well as longer time to strengthen.

Vortex confirmed 991mbs, thats pretty amazing, gotta surely b a 35kts TS!

From all of the data we're getting, looks like a TS for sure at 10PM advisory and a track shift to the east. I can't wait for to read their discussion - dying to know what those guys at NHC are thinking.

[brunota2003]

They are probably just as baffled as us.

[KWT]

From all of the data we're getting, looks like a TS for sure at 10PM advisory and a track shift to the east. I can't wait for to read their discussion - dying to know what those guys at NHC are thinking.

Yeah it will be, I didn't see the 00z SHIPS which started at 35kts so this one will be upgraded.

[ozonepete]

They are probably just as baffled as us.

Yeah, these storms are the best to follow insofar as they are really challenging what we know and we learn a lot from them.

[JTE50]

They are probably just as baffled as us.

I think baffled and under a lot of pressure to get it right with as much lead time as possible due to the fleet of surface ships at the Deepwater Horizon site.

[vaffie]

CDO...coming (quickly) to a storm near you! Leaving to get supplies...

[SFLcane]

They are probably just as baffled as us.

I think baffled and under a lot of pressure to get it right with as much lead time as possible due to the fleet of surface ships at the Deepwater Horizon site.

Jim are youre going to be chasing alex? Would not suprise me to see a 100kt cane during the next day or two the ways things are rolling tonight.

[ozonepete]

It's becoming really obvious, if you look at the satellite loops, that this is coming under the influence of that anomalously strong trough to the west. I'm beginning to think there will be a significant shift to the north in the track.