ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

No change to the NHC cone for the last 3 advisories, including tonight's 11 pm:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/gr ... p_5W.shtml

Where did you read that there was no changes?

From the discussion:

THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS...ONCE AGAIN...
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY CLOSE
TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

It's been shifting west with every update almost!

[TheBurn]

I have to say... TWC just had a pretty 'on point' piece on the steering scenario. Not bad at all.

Really? earlier they spent 1-2 min on earl and didnt even show his path on their tropical update...spent more time on sunsets and light rain falling. So much for "The hurricane Authority". Cant say they got it easy or I could do better but a few moment on a important storm would be nice.

Yeah, it was not part of the TU. It was their opening at 10:30.

[UpTheCreek]

No change to the NHC cone for the last 3 advisories, including tonight's 11 pm:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/gr ... p_5W.shtml

Where did you read that there was no changes?

From the discussion:

THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS...ONCE AGAIN...
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY CLOSE
TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

It's been shifting west with every update almost!

I edited my original post. I also posted a few above yours admitting my error. Thank you for catching it, just like the last 4 people that posted about it!

[Hurritrax]

Yep, there's still a margin of error this far out of about 150 miles east or west....Here's a perfect example of people following the black line and not looking at the entire cone. All of Eastern NC, especially the Outer Banks should be watching Earl closely.

[seussianagenda]

Longggggggg time lurker her. Do we have any way to gauge storm surge with this thing. I'm in Norfolk, Va in a VERY low-lying area next to the elizabeth river. Can anyone advise? Great board everyone.

[cheezyWXguy]

Well earl's appearance is definitely starting to improve again. The eye is looking especially circular now, and the weakness in convection on the east side is starting to fill in with bands developing east of there as well. Another strengthening phase may be in order soon.

[Dean4Storms]

Longggggggg time lurker her. Do we have any way to gauge storm surge with this thing. I'm in Norfolk, Va in a VERY low-lying area next to the elizabeth river. Can anyone advise? Great board everyone.

You should be able to contact your local EOC and get any and all flood prone info.

[SouthFLTropics]

Longggggggg time lurker her. Do we have any way to gauge storm surge with this thing. I'm in Norfolk, Va in a VERY low-lying area next to the elizabeth river. Can anyone advise? Great board everyone.

Here is a link to some storm surge information from VA...Hope this helps...

http://www.vdem.state.va.us/threats/hur ... msurge.cfm

SFT

[Texas Snowman]

THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS...ONCE AGAIN...
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY CLOSE
TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW CLOSE THE HURRICANE WILL COME TO THE U.S. EAST COAST.

Go ask people in SW Florida about the uncertainty of hurricanes (Hurricane Charley in 2004) and them not doing what they are supposed to.

IMO, this is going to be a real problem for someone on the east coast.

[seussianagenda]

I'm really a little worried here in Norfolk. We've had some bad experiences with hurricanes and Nor'easters, just none this big. If this thing gets within 50 miles of Norfolk, you'll see some deaths. NO ONE here seems to take hurricanes seriously.

[Stratosphere747]

Longggggggg time lurker her. Do we have any way to gauge storm surge with this thing. I'm in Norfolk, Va in a VERY low-lying area next to the elizabeth river. Can anyone advise? Great board everyone.

Here is a link to some storm surge information from VA...Hope this helps...

http://www.vdem.state.va.us/threats/hur ... msurge.cfm

SFT

To add, this is data specifically for Norfolk -

http://www.norfolk.gov/emergency/intera ... e_maps.asp

[hurricanefloyd5]

a jog to the west again a hugh jog????????????



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

[SunnyThoughts]

[Aric Dunn]

it is just amazing to see an ERC take place within radar range... very rare and I have only seen it once before and it never really finished since it made landfall..

[hurricanefloyd5]

it is just amazing to see an ERC take place within radar range... very rare and I have only seen it once before and it never really finished since it made landfall..

aric it made a westward jog/wobble again what do you think???????

[Dean4Storms]

I'm really a little worried here in Norfolk. We've had some bad experiences with hurricanes and Nor'easters, just none this big. If this thing gets within 50 miles of Norfolk, you'll see some deaths. NO ONE here seems to take hurricanes seriously.

It will take just one to change all that.

[UpTheCreek]

Can someone explain to me what's happening to the NW quadrant of Earl? It looks like it's hitting a brick wall in this water vapor loop. Is the wall of dry air doing that to it? What kind of effect can that dry air have on Earl?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[Brent]

Very impressive.

[Weatherfreak000]

It does seem to appear Earl may keep pushing more west than the next forecast point. Perhaps another shift?

[rosethornil]

I'm really a little worried here in Norfolk. We've had some bad experiences with hurricanes and Nor'easters, just none this big. If this thing gets within 50 miles of Norfolk, you'll see some deaths. NO ONE here seems to take hurricanes seriously.

Seussianagenda, I agree with you. Post-1970s houses are not built to withstand real storms, IMHO.

I'm in Colonial Place (in Norfolk), that nice old neighborhood built on FILL DIRT, that peninsula that juts out into the Elizabeth River!!!! The last "bad" storm we had was the Ash Wednesday Storm in 1962. There's been a whole lot of building going on since that storm in 1962.

Rose